Police raid on RNC Welcoming Committee HQ

The headquarters of a well-known activist group "RNC Welcoming Committee," which had plans to demonstrate at the RNC convention, was raided by police. Dozens of its members -- including a lawyer and a journalist -- were arrested. No weapons of any kind were found when the police stormed the house. As documented in a video, the Department of Homeland Security appears to have joined local police in carrying out the raid. A disturbing prospect. One member is interviewed here. And here is an another video made about the raid:




Update: check out this report from Glenn Greenwald, who is on the scene live-blogging.

Hurricane Gustav radar

Here is a colorful radar animation of Gustav passing over Cuba.
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More about Gustav here.

Sarah Palin's baby Trig

Unless you have seen it first first-hand, as part of the press scrum or as a campaign staffer, it is almost impossible to imagine how grueling the process of running for national office is. Everybody gets exhausted. The candidates have to answer questions and offer views roughly 18 hours a day, and any misstatement on any topic can get them in trouble.

- James Fallows

Yes, the race for the US presidency in 2008 is one of the toughest jobs in the world. The final stretch of the campaign? Challenging can't be the word for it. In Palin's case, it will be especially tough. Fallows explains, "If someone is campaigning for the presidency or vice presidency, there's an extra twist. That person has to have a line of argument to offer on any conceivable issue." Palin will have the steepest of learning curves. She needs lots of coaching, concerning every issue: from Iraq to China to the ins-and-outs of health insurance.

The final stretch of the race for the presidency sounds even harder than that other marvel of human existance: pulling off what mothers achieve in caring for an infant.

How is it, one wonders, that Sarah Palin has come to the conclusion that she can to do both?

Palin of course, is the mother of a baby named Trig born on 18 April 2008. As every mother knows, it is a tough job -- I think most would say it's more than a full-time job -- taking care of a newborn child. But in the case of Palin's child, Trig, there will be special challenges. Because Trig has Downs Syndrome it is likely little Trig will require some extra attention. It is not as if Palin has prior experience raising such a child.

Tell me, how can Palin do it? The most difficult stretch of the most grueling race on earth, plus the steep learning curve, plus having a newborn, plus addressing the special-needs requirements of Trig? How?

The answer, of course, is that compromises will be made. Today, Palin spoke before a campaign banner that read "Country First." But can Palin -- under the circumstances -- really put Country First? I have some female Jotman readers to thank for raising this question (see this post). Here is what these readers have said:

A female Jotman reader wrote:

Seeing her parade onto the stage with her family struck me as pathetic - who gets to raise that tiny baby? - I can't believe women will react sympathetically to her. Women just don't react well to a woman who sacrifices her family for her career. Bringing up children is hard enough but the challenges of handling a Downs syndrome child is something else again. I am dumbfounded.

Another woman commented:

Running around the country and promoting John McSames outdated, out of touch and unrealistic values and ideals does not speak well of her dedication to raising a special needs child. Isn't she still breast feeding this child?

And then this woman chimed in:

I am so glad someone else feels this way! While with some difficulty I can not comment on the choice to have a child with downs syndrome, I am apalled at this vice-presidential run choice. A child need as much time from both parents as possible during the early years!!! Beeing a commited working mom of two little ones I am beyong stupefied that someone can opt for the campaign trail and yet dream of espousing family values!!!

What do you think? Is Sarah Palin attempting to do too much? Is it ethical? Is Palin's family life and baby really any of our business?

Update: There are new allegations about the baby.

Thailand: Krabi airport closed, Phuket closed

UPDATE: Read this post.

UPDATE: Tue, September 2, 2009. Reports on the situation in Thailand and airport status for today are posted here.

UPDATE: The Bangkok Post reports that both Krabi and Phuket airports have re-opened.

Sunday. The closure of the Phuket and Krabi airports on account of mob protests is deplorable. The region, after all, is dependent on foreign tourist revenue. The Bangkok Post reports:

Phuket and Krabi remained closed for a third day on Sunday because anti-government protesters have seized some approach roads and endanger runway operations.

In addition, train service across the country remains halted for a fourth day, despite government attempts to convince workers back to the job.

Concerning the closure of Phuket airport, WA Today reports:

officials said the [Phuket] airport would be closed indefinitely due to ongoing anti-government protesters. Thailand's second-busiest airport was closed yesterday afternoon after 5,000 protesters set up a blockade and marched down the tarmac, forcing authorities to suspend flights to and from the island.

About 1,000 protesters from the so-called People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which is also squatting on the main government compound in Bangkok, blocked access to the airport today.

The airport's director Wicha Nurnlop said the protesters had refused to negotiate with authorities on reopening the runway.

"Phuket airport is shutting down indefinitely," he told Agence France-Presse.

Foreign passengers have been greatly inconvenienced, reports AFP:

15,000 passengers stranded in Phuket since anti-government protesters marched Friday on the island's airport, the nation's second-busiest, forcing a cancellation of all the nearly 120 daily flights.

Similar protests closed down the airport in nearby Krabi and the southern commercial centre of Hat Yai, cutting off air traffic to much of southern Thailand.

A third airport, Hat Yai International, was closed on Friday but officials managed to convince protesters to back off and allow flight operations to resume on Saturday.

Concerning the last point, should you choose to go to Hat Yai airport, you are entering a region of Thailand that has experienced terrorist bombings as recently as May 2007. Which brings us to the government issued travel-advisories. AFP reports that "Australia, Britain and the United States have warned their nationals to exercise caution travelling here, while South Korea has urged tourists to postpone their plans." South Korea's advisory sounds silly to me. A tourist is not likely to get hurt in Thailand -- at least not in clashes between police and protesters -- if a tourist stays away from places where the protest mobs have gathered.

Thai PM Samak has harshly criticized security at Phuket Airport: "Spekaing during his live talk programme on NBT, Samak said the protesters were unarmed so the security officials, who have been trained to cope with terrorists, should have removed them from the airport."

Stranded passenger's tickets will be honored at least by some airlines. AirAsia says will give refunds or provide replacement flights to Phuket and Krabi-bound passengers due to the closure of the airports there. Meanwhile, some Australian Thailand-bound flights have not taken off.

To find out more about the political situation in Thailand, see these posts. If you are in Thailand and get some new information, please share what you have heard in comments.

Be careful what you pray for

I pray for rain . . . torrential rain . . . If God decides that rain of biblical proportions would be a good idea. . . . Would it be so wrong if we asked people to pray for rain?

- James Dobson of "Focus on the Family"

Cuba: Hurricane Gustav

I've never read a weather forecast like this. Cuba is being hit hard:

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... IS POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA.. .

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

-HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A

Havana buses have stopped and the airport is closed. Good news is that fragile Old Havana is apparently still mainly intact. AP has a report on the progress of the hurricane through Western Cuba here.

Hurricane Gustav category 4 -5

GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THERE ARE UNOFFICIAL REPORTS FROM PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WINDS NEAR THESE ESTIMATES. SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

-HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A

Post updated. "A land strike to the west of New Orleans will place this great city within the most dangerous part of the storm," said one forecaster, adding: "Gustav has the potential to generate much more damage than Katrina did."

At 11 a.m. Miami time "the storm was located 185 miles (295 kilometers) east of Cuba's western tip with maximum winds of 125 miles per hour." The storm "will pass over Cuba today and tonight, before it emerges into the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, where it will strengthen and reach the Louisiana coast the night of Sept.1."**

This information from New Orleans blows me away:

The city estimated that those needing assistance would number about 30,000.

Unlike the situation during Katrina, there will be no "shelter of last resort," the city said. In 2005, the city's Louisiana Superdome housed thousands of New Orleanians who couldn't, or didn't, heed the mandatory evacuation order.

The arena -- which grew dark, hot and increasingly fetid after the electricity failed and the plumbing was overwhelmed in the storm -- became a symbol of the disaster and the much-maligned government response to it.*

How can you not have a shelter-of-last-resort? As if everybody is going to get out. Some surely will not. FEMA claims to have prepared 800 buses and trains, and is counting on everyone without a car getting on board one of these.
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- Jotman's Hurricane Gustav emergency resources links.
- More about Hurricane Gustav, including tracking map.
* CNN "Hurricanes are ranked 1-5 in intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A Category 3 hurricane has sustained winds from 111 to 130 mph and is capable of causing extensive damage. A Category 4 has winds of 131 to 155 mph and can cause extreme damage."
- Hurricane Gustave Special advisory: most recent here.

Palin Poll

Early indications are that the American public is not half as stupid as Republican leader John McCain had assumed. According to a USA Today/Gallup poll:

In the poll taken Friday, 39 percent said [Gov. Sarah Palin] is ready to serve as president if needed, 33 percent said she isn’t and 29 percent have no opinion.

That’s the lowest rating any running mate has had since then-Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle was selected in 1988 to join George H.W. Bush’s team.

By contrast, 57 percent of voters rated Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as qualified after Obama selected him last week. Eighteen percent said he wasn’t qualified.

Palin is rated about about as favorably as George W. Bush. A Jotman reader explained why women are not likely to admire Palin.

Nepal source of massive flood in Bihar, India

NY Times reports on the massive floods in Bihar state of India:

More than 2.1 million people and over 394 square miles have been affected by the flooding, the Bihar government said on Friday. About a quarter of a million people have been evacuated.

Evacuees may not be able to return to their homes, if those homes still exist, until fall, state government officials said. [...]

The breach in the dam that caused the flooding is eight miles inside Nepal, he said, and therefore difficult to gain access to and fix. “We are facing labor problems, law and order problems, and logistics problems,” he said.

The Nepalese government said that work to fix the break was under way, and that its officials were cooperating with the Indian government. The river has flooded its banks in Nepal as well, displacing tens of thousands of people.

About a quarter of a million homes in India have already been destroyed by the floods, Indian officials say.

Meanwhile, The Independent quotes Bihar's disaster management minister who says:

"Rains are killing our rescue and relief efforts."

____

Map of India: Bihar state is light-blue color.

Bihar state map: From blogger Pratush who describes the extent of damage to towns and agriculture (green).

Detailed satelite images of flooding available at Disasters Charter

Hurricane Gustav - government preparing people?

I'm stunned. At this moment, New Orleans is evacuating. I've spent the last hour trying to put together a list of resources to help Jotman readers living in the Gulf of Mexico prepare for Hurricane Gustav. And you what? Evacuation, forecast, and preparedness information seems to be scattered all over the place.

FEMA and Homeland Security websites only link to public announcements and declarations of emergency by this or that state or federal official, and generic disaster preparedness guides (they have hurricane specific guides, but you have to google for them!). State and federal emergency agency websites don't link to one another. Moreover, as a major hurricane approaches, these US agency websites are day or two out of date. A citizen really has to scrounge for practical information!

Jotman's list of emergency resources. For more on the big hurricane read this post, and then this post too.

Thailand political unrest - forecast for Sunday

Update: New Mandala has interesting photographs showing protesters on Aug. 29.

According to a report in The Nation

• Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej may dissolve Parliament [Sunday] as his own resignation alone would not solve the crisis, Chiang Mai People Power Party MP Surapong Towijakchaikul said yesterday.
• Samut Prakarn MP Pracha Prasopdee said the anti-PAD Democratic Alliance for Democracy had called on its supporters to rally at Sanam Luang.
• scheduled 1.30pm today for a parliamentary meeting for MPs and senators to discuss solving the political crisis.

Meanwhile, according to several reports that have come in, Thai television is not doing a very good job of informing citizens about current events and civil unrest. A traveler who was at Bangkok's international airport a few hours ago informs me that there was much confusion and crowding at the terminal -- long wait for a taxi. Among Thai citizens, there is much confusion in the capital. Someone commenting on this blog has summarized events in Bangkok on Saturday:

. . . well, prince promoting unity gives speech and PM attends it ("From Mother Day to Father Day" ceremony at the Amporn Garden) while ... mob occupies the government house and the clerks can't come to do their work... mob attacks police HQ ... mob attacks airports and vandalizes terminals ... army boss refuses to follow what PM says...

Also, Nation reports that at the same time princess (who is BTW also crown, as brother) arranges medical communication help for PAD - seems like she supports them?

Hurricane Gustav: warning for Cuba and Northern Gulf

An excerpt from Hurricane Gustave Special advisory #24 (2pm EDT):

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE EITHER BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING WESTERN CUBA.

** See this post.

Hurricane Gustav: Coastal Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas brace for catastrophe

Post updated and moved here.

Palin has a problem with polar bears

McCain vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin does not believe polar bears should be listed as an endangered species. Wired reports:

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has ignored research showing that polar bear populations are declining in the quest to plumb new sources of energy, according to scientists, and environmental groups who fought to put the bears on the endangered species list.

That's not the only scientific research Palin has ignored or distorted. Because Palin also has a problem with a certain species of marine animal. Can you guess which one? (Answer here.)

Photo: a new Obama campaign volunteer.

Thailand military coup? Thai army leader defies order, suggests PM resign

Is a military coup about to take place in Thailand? The Bangkok Post reports:

Army commander Anupong Paojinda has rejected Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's call for a state of emergency and suggested instead the premier either resign or dissolve the House of Representatives to ease tensions, a source said. Key political partner Banharn Silpa-archa turned up the heat by demanding an urgent meeting with Premier Samak and other coalition leaders.

Related developments:

• One report said Samak had been granted an audience by King Bhumibol Adulyadej in Hua Hin last night. (NST, Singapore)
• The Civil Court yesterday suspended its injunction to evict the People's Alliance for Democracy from Government House, saying execution of the order might inflict further damage. (Bangkok Post news flash)

Thailand appears to be in the midst of a political crisis. See this post for in-depth analysis.

Thailand: airports in Krabi and Phuket closed by protests

For update: Read this post.

The PAD anti-government protests continue in Thailand. The protests, which surged this week -- beginning with the occupation of a television studio, followed by the encampment of protesters outside the Thai Prime Minister's Residence* -- spread across the country Friday. The WSJ reports:

Friday, demonstrators clashed with police on several new fronts, widening the battle lines. About 2,000 demonstrators marched on Bangkok's police headquarters Friday in the center of the capital after law-enforcement officials tried to break up the protest at the Government House. Police warded them off.

Other demonstrators closed down three provincial airports -- including those at the beach resorts of Phuket and Krabi in the country's south. Canceled flights stranded thousands of local and foreign travelers as Thailand gears up for the beginning of its peak tourism season. Tourism accounts for about 6% of Thailand's economy and is a major earner of foreign exchange.**

Rail workers have also gone on strike, deepening the sense of crisis now engulfing Thailand's government.

When I blogged the previous post (see it for background) on the PAD protests, it seemed as if the protesters had truly crossed the line. BBC Bangkok correspondent Jonathan Head pretty had much summed up the situation: "Despite its name, the People's Alliance for Democracy is actually campaigning for an end to democracy."* An Italian newspaper was equally blunt, labeling the mob actions "a putsch," adding, "it is only unclear whether the putsch was successful or not." Yet as bad as it seemed there was reason to hope that -- after months of mob unrest -- the elected government was poised to defeat the royalist mob.

But something seems to have gone terribly wrong. As the protests wore on, and the Thai government did not declare a state of Emergency, it refused to move in decisively to put an end to the civil disobedience. At this hour democracy itself may be in jeopardy.

Why has it come to this?

First, police actions appear to have caused injury -- apparently not serious though -- to protesters. And civil society groups have lashed out against the government. Bangkok Pundit describes "this weird situation where seizing government buildings and protesting there is like some norm and the protesters have been provided moral support by Abhisit, Senators, seemingly all members of the academia, and the Thai press corps. Suddenly, the government has lost legitimacy because a number of PAD protesters were injured." Bangkok pundit suggests the accusations of police brutality are overblown, whereas reports of attacks by the mob against journalists are not being taken seriously.

Second, HM the King of Thailand may have dissuaded Prime Minister Samak from acting more forcefully against the protesters. The prime minister apparently had "an audience he had with King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who told him to “enforce the law with extreme caution” and to be “soft and gentle.”"****

Third, thins appear to be going according to a plan. Nick and Andrew, veteran bloggers at New Mandala, have listed four likely "endgames" for PAD. Events of the past few hours suggest to me that -- whether or not that this was the plan -- something very close to the endgame they envisioned is unfolding almost like clockwork. I paraphrased the first three of the four hoped-for scenerios:

1. King steps in asks Samak to resign in name of "reconciliation."
2. Escalating confrontation motivates army to intervene extra-constitutionally: a coup.
3. Government destabilized, economy falters, discrediting the government.
4. "Elements within the PAD may also be hoping that a heavy-handed government response to the current protest may provide them with some politically useful symbols of repression (and perhaps even some martyrs) that could be used to invigorate future phases of their campaign."

First point: May have occurred already. Apparently it has not happened yet, but Friday night the HM the King apparently met with Samak. We do not know what was said.

The second point: Check. Saturday the army chief refused to obey an order given by the prime minister, and asked the PM to resign.

As to point three, the stock market has already lost ground, and there are signs of economic weakness. It could already be reasonably claimed that the economy is in trouble. Gives weight to points one and two.

The forth point: Check. A prescient predication call by Nick and Andrew. PAD is apparently succeeding at creating martyrs out of people who have mere cuts and scrapes and maybe "a broken bone" -- thanks to a what Bangkok Pundit has exposed to be a complicit media.

In conclusion, I find it hard to believe that this so-called "endgame" -- which has been so outrageously successful -- could be the work of PAD alone. The plan has gone too well for me to believe this group is working independently. I think PAD is part of a more coordinated action, involving other powerful actors in Thai society. What is their endgame?

_____

* Live-blogging the protest on Friday was Absolute Bangkok. New Mandala has good photos depicting protests of Aug. 26. According to one New Mandala photo caption: "Some newspaper readers probably do not realize that the PAD does not merely have erected a huge stage near the UN center, but also established an entire small town of tents." Bangkok's Newley has an interesting slide show of the protests. Bangkok Pundit is discerning fact from fiction, as is Fonzi. Also of interest to me was this BBC News video.

**** Asia Sentinal

*** La Stampa, hat-tip Bangkok Pundit. Interestingly, the article compares events in Thailand today to the rise of fascism in Italy.

**For updates on the status of the airports in Thailand, visit Jot around the world, my travel blog.

How successful was the Obama speech?

Was the speech a success? The answer hit me when I happened to glance at this story headline:

GOP: Don't believe the hype, Obama not ready

When I saw that headline I snickered. Having watched Obama speak, this post-convention GOP talking-point came across as absurd. That's how effectively I think Obama made his case in Denver. Obama laid the groundwork for how the country should interpret John McCain campaign tactics: listen to how funny they sound! Obama had said:

I know there are those who dismiss such beliefs as happy talk. They claim that our insistence on something larger, something firmer and more honest in our public life is just a Trojan Horse for higher taxes and the abandonment of traditional values. And that's to be expected. Because if you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from.

You make a big election about small things. [. . .]

But I stand before you tonight because all across America something is stirring. What the nay-sayers don't understand is that this election has never been about me. It's been about you.

The DNC left me with the sense that by having defeated Hillary Clinton in a very hard-fought race, having reconciled with her, and finally to having orchestrated a wildly succesful convention -- characterized by one compelling speech after another-- the Obama candidacy is -- far and away -- the safer bet.

Contraflow invoked for Hurricane Gustav

Updates:

• Important new post.
  
• This map showing projected path of hurricane Gustav (NHC)
• map (right) updated at noon EDT on Saturday.

A massive hurricane -- perhaps bigger than Katrina -- looks poised to reek havoc in the gulf region of the United States. Hurricane Gustav gathers steam on the third anniversary of Katrina, the natural disaster-turned-man-made tragedy; and the eve of the Republican National Convention, threatening to postpone the convention as Republicans scramble to look as if -- this time -- they really do care.*

Oil refineries could be at risk. Highways in Louisiana -- where a state of emergency has been declared -- are gearing up to "contraflow" traffic to prevent congestion (see: contraflow map, 2006 evacuation map, page that links to PDF evacuation maps from Homeland Security -- I cannot open these with my slow computer). Exactly what is contraflow? It means that all lanes of freeway traffic will be directed to move in the same direction (away from the coast), speeding evacuation.

And get this. CNN reports, "Hurricane Katrina victims living in government-issued trailers or mobile homes along [the Mississippi] coast will begin evacuating this weekend to prepare for the Gustav's possible arrival." Three years after Katrina hit, victims are still living in emergency trailers. WTF?

Meanwhile, the same man who failed to prepare for Hurricane Katrina, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, is in charge of managing this emergency. . .

Updates are available at the National Hurricane Center.

I have compiled a page of links to emergency resources here.

* Top photo NHC; middle photo shows Bush and McCain eating cake on August 29, 2005, the day Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans; bottom photo shows Katrina victims.

Sarah Palin's family values questioned

A female Jotman reader and Hillary Clinton fan reflects on John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential running-mate. The reader raises several provocative questions:

McCain has chosen the supremely unqualified Sarah Palin as his running mate. Watching her speak did nothing to dim my dismay. What was he thinking??

Will the business type Republicans let McCain get away with this? Could there be a movement at the Convention to challenge his choice?

How could he pass up qualified men and women in favor of this lightweight pro-life, pro intelligent design mother of five with no experience of the world outside the soccer fields of Alaska. Seeing her parade onto the stage with her family struck me as pathetic - who gets to raise that tiny baby? - I can't believe women will react sympathetically to her. Women just don't react well to a woman who sacrifices her family for her career. Bringing up children is hard enough but the challenges of handling a Downs syndrome child is something else again. I am dumbfounded.

The fact that the McCain-Palin ticket could win sends chills down my spine. Two out of control mavericks with their hands on the nuclear button. Guess we had better enjoy life while we can.

I don't think anyone should lose too much sleep over this pick. The more I think about it, the more strongly I suspect McCain just lost himself an election.
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I have just posted a follow-up post, where I examine a key issue raised by the female Jotman reader and by other women in the comments.

Sarah Palin Vs Dan Quayle

An MSNBC announcer, apparently at a loss for words on McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as McCain's vice-presidential running mate, quipped, ""She certainly had a more compelling first speech than did Dan Quayle." That's an interesting comparison, but an unfair one.

It's unfair to Dan Quayle. Quayle had served two terms in the US House of Representatives, followed by eight years as US Senator for Indiana before George H.W. Bush asked him to be his running mate twenty years ago.* By contrast, Sarah Palin has been Governor of Alaska (pop. 600,000) for less than two years, prior to which she was mayor of Wasilla (pop. 7,000). Dan Quayle was far better qualified to be asked to join a presidential ticket than Sarah Palin.

Last week I blogged, "Judging by McCain's track-record of team-building to date, it is highly doubtful he will choose well." My concern about John McCain's lack of judgment has been confirmed. John McCain is not only the oldest presidential candidate in US history, he is to be counted among its most irresponsible.

* Wikipedia

VP Sarah Palin

For his Vice Presidential running mate, McCain chooses . . . Sarah who? As it happens, I recently blogged about Sarah Palin's prospects. I had one big question about her suitability.

Obama philosophy

Call it Obamism. One passage of Obama's speech got straight to the heart of Obama's philosophy of government. His words are consistent with my prior sense as to how Obama prefers to approach policy choices:

We may not agree on abortion, but surely we can agree on reducing the number of unwanted pregnancies in this country. The reality of gun ownership may be different for hunters in rural Ohio than for those plagued by gang-violence in Cleveland, but don't tell me we can't uphold the Second Amendment while keeping AK-47s out of the hands of criminals. I know there are differences on same-sex marriage, but surely we can agree that our gay and lesbian brothers and sisters deserve to visit the person they love in the hospital and to live lives free of discrimination. Passions fly on immigration, but I don't know anyone who benefits when a mother is separated from her infant child or an employer undercuts American wages by hiring illegal workers. This too is part of America's promise - the promise of a democracy where we can find the strength and grace to bridge divides and unite in common effort.

I have no doubt Obama is sincere when he speaks out on behalf of this approach.

Who won the Georgia-Russia war?

The answer might surprise you. Sanjuro, a longtime Russian reader of Jotman, writes in an email:

To me it appears that there was a sole winner that emerged from the current Russia-West spat: China. While west-sponsored Georgia launched a botched takeover operation provoking the Russian incursion, and the West has taken a controversial standing, and the truth in the South Ossetia incident seems to be forever lost, China staged spectacular Games, handled security issues, presented itself as a rather enlightened autocracy etc etc. In the Western eyes, in comparison with Russia, China now seems a much more benevolent regime to deal with, and after all, the West itself seems to losing its credibility as a moral authority.

I read in the FT today that "Russia is warned on threat to Ukraine". Was there a threat? Or to the Baltic states? Or to Moldova or whoever is there? The threat existed largely in the imaginations I believe. Why does West need to have the last word when the battle is over? A totally irrelevant statement at this stage, when the post-war status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is a much greater concern...

We know that there's a dispute over Sevastopol naval base as Ukraine doesn't want to renew lease after 2014, and Russian populist politicians occasionally indulge in igniting nationalistic feelings in the Crimean populace - but no moves or statements were from official Kremlin in the run-up and aftermath of the Caucasian war.

What is supposed to be Kremlin's response to West's "warnings not to threaten"? Obviously, to save their face, Kremlin must do a couple of "threatening moves", causing even greater noise in Ukraine, Georgia and the West.

It looks to me as if various American leaders are straining themselves to paint Russia as the enemy of the West.* The trouble is, it remains only a theory -- one for which evidence is actually in rather short supply. Since when was Georgia an integral part of the West? In fact, Georgia is not a part of any historical conception of the West that does not also include Russia. The point being: except for some rumblings in the Caucasus, the fear mongers cannot really prove their point about Russia. So they talk about what Russia "might" do, and then pontificate.

The West should heed Sanjuro's warning. If its leaders continue down this path, they will likely -- as by the kind of situation Sanjuro describes -- create an enemy where none had previously existed.
____
*Obama, for example, promised in his speech to the DNC convention to contend with "Russian aggression." McCain takes the prize, of course.
Photo: By AP / Murad Sezer. Zou Shiming of China displays his gold after winning the men's light flyweight 48 kilogram final boxing match at the Beijing 2008 Olympics in Beijing.

Video of Obama's 2008 nomination acceptance speech at the DNC

The speech of his life.

Singapore deports Burma activists

Singapore has deported six Burmese student involved in protesting the junta:

Six Burmese have been thrown out of Singapore in the last month or so when their residency passes were denied renewals. While the immigration office has not provided any explanation for any of these cases -- and the silence itself can be read as sinister -– "they had some commonalities", said Myo Myint Maung at a press conference on 22 August.

All six have had their personal particulars recorded by the police at one or more events organised by the expatriate Burmese community since last September, and each of them have, at least once, been summoned to Tanglin Police Station for investigation.

Here is a video of a particularly creative protest by Burmese in Singapore.

Aung San Suu Kyi hunger strike?

There is a report that the elected leader of Burma has been refusing food since August 16th.

Putin blames US Republican Party strategists for Georgia war

Why did Georgia, a very small country, provoke a conflict with mother Russia? We simply do not know the answer to this question. McCain was certainly quick off the mark with the Churchillian rhetoric that has defined the crisis for many Americans, boosting his campaign in the opinion polls. It is now evident that the McCain campaign is run by neo-conservative extremists. "Win-at-all-costs" may well be their motto.

Reuters quotes Russian leader Vladamir Putin: "... The suspicion arises that someone in the United States especially created this conflict with the aim of making the situation more tense and creating a competitive advantage for one of the candidates fighting for the post of U.S. president."

Whether or not the Georgia conflict was scripted by Republican Party strategists is beside the point. Clearly, the McCain campaign has succeeded in explaining to the country what the Russia-Georgia conflict means. Moreover, they are begining to articulate -- based on their own constuction of meaning -- what the country ought to do about it.

Barack Obama must decide if he is going to play along with all this. Will Obama follow the Republican Party's script for Cold War II? Is Obama sufficiently independent-mined to write a different script? Will he challenge the Republican's interpretation? Or in the name of pursuing "bipartisanship" in foreign policy, more or less accept it as a given?

Putin can say whatever he wants. Who knows if his claim is true? He has not offered any tangible evidence. As for the big questions, we have a pretty good idea of where McCain stands. Even if, like me, you think he is foolish. But from the other side, rhetorical flourishes alone will not suffice. Obama needs to provide a clear and distinct alternative. He must orient his countrymen to move in a better direction.

Photo: The illustration to an article about the "U.S. Air Force's Land-based ICBM Program" on the website of Northrop Grumman. More about this in my next post.

Thai military, royalty and the Myanmar junta

Robert Kaplan writes in the Atlantic Monthly about his discussions in Thailand with unnamed Burma experts about China's multi-pronged bid to gain more influence over Burma.

I am revising some commentary which I had posted here. More in a future post.

South Ossetia or New York City: it's a difficult choice for the Bush administration

Is the White House willing to trade New York City for South Ossetia? It would seem so. AP reports:

A key civil nuclear agreement between Russia and the U.S. looks likely to be shelved until next year at the earliest amid mounting tensions over the fate of Georgia's breakaway republics.

The nuclear pact — signed last May — set the framework to give the U.S. access to Russian state-of-the-art nuclear technologies, while helping Russia establish an international nuclear fuel storage facility for spent fuel. Russia cannot achieve that goal without the deal, since the U.S. controls the vast majority of the world's nuclear fuel.

. . . the Bush administration . . . has backed the bill as a key part of its efforts to secure nuclear materials.

It would appear as if a top priority of the US government is no longer to keep nuclear materials out of the hands of terrorists. Rather, having a futile Cold War with Rusisa over Georgia's borders takes precedence.

If Russia's nuclear materials are not secured, eventually terrorists will get them.

Malaysia: Anwar landslide good for democracy

In a triumphant culmination to a tumultuous summer, Anwar Ibrahim today regained his parliamentary seat in Permatang Pauh in a landslide electoral victory, winning 31,195 of 47,000 votes. A victorious Anwar called the occasion a 'defining moment' that should serve as a 'major lesson' for the ruling BN. Shortly thereafter, some people were demanding that the hapless Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi should quit.*

In the March 2008 Malaysia general elections, Anwar Ibrahim's three-party alliance won an unprecedented 82 of parliament's 222 seats — 30 short of a majority — and wrested control of five states. But then in early July the government had him arrested on sodomy charges. IHT has a political timeline of the career of Anwar Ibrahim.

I've listened to Anwar speak, and few Southeast Asian politicians come closer to articulating the meaning of democracy. This is a great moment for Malaysia.
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* Malaysiakini. Most of Malaysia's big newspapers are government-controlled, but Malaysiakini is not.

US bomb kills 60 Afghan children

The NY Times reports that the UN has "convincing evidence" that a US air strike in Afghanistan has killed 90 civilians, including 60 children.

Air strikes don't win wars. The allied bombing of Germany was not what defeated Hitler; the carpet-bombing of Tokyo did not defeat Imperial Japan; bombing Cambodia, North Vietnam, and Laos failed to defeat the Vietcong; in the 1980s, Russian helicopter gunships firing on targets throughout Afghanistan did not lead to a Russians victory; US air strikes on Tora Bora did not even lead to the capture of Bin Laden in 2001. Precisely what objectives have been accomplished after five years of air strikes on targets throughout Iraq? Bombing is an ineffective way to fight a war.

Moreover, air strikes seem to be particularly counter-productive when the enemy is an insurgency. Money quote from the NY Times article:

How the military came to call in air strikes on a civilian gathering still remains unclear. Two parliamentarians, Mr. Safi and Maulavi Gul Ahmad, who is from the area, said the villagers blamed tribal enemies for giving the military false intelligence.

“According to the villagers their enemies give false report to Americans that foreign fighters were gathering in the village,” Mr. Safi said.

NATO's attempt to win a war in Afghanistan looks half-baked.

Independence for Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

AFP reports "Russia on Tuesday formally recognised the Georgian rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states in a startling new challenge to the West that drew a hail of criticism."

Interestingly, a Russian Jotman reader had earlier suggested that a solution to the crisis might be to make both the North Ossetia (part of the Russian Federation) and South Ossetia (part of Georgia) into a single independent state. But with the Russians having gained the upper hand, that was not likely to happen.

If other countries agreed to recognize its independence, South Ossetia would be one of the world's smallest countries, with a population of only 100,000. Abkhazia, with a population of about 160,ooo would not be much larger. Andorra, with a population of 80,000, however, is still smaller.

No doubt the West will make a big fuss about this rather predicatable Russian declaration.

However, considering that the West was willing to recognize the independence of Kosovo -- an integral part of Serbia, longtime Russian ally -- over Russian objections! Seriously, who can blame Moscow? The shortsighted leaders of the West -- not to mention the megalomaniac running Georgia -- ought to have seen this one coming.

As the historical time line indicates, the South Ossetians have been fighting with the Georgians since the early decades of the Twentieth Century. Wikipedia has a good history of Abkhazia here. Today, both regions are economically bound to Russia.

The AFP article notes that amidst the rejoicing throughout South Ossetia, "Georgian police and Ossetian militiamen were locked in a stand-off over a flashpoint town, Akhalgori , which the Ossetians want to make part of their breakaway region."

Flags: Abkhazia (top) South Ossetia (bottom).

Burmese ghost stories

Seth Mydans writes in the NY Times about traumatized survivors of the Irrawaddy Delta of Burma:

Fantastical tales circulate among the survivors, the photographer said, weaving a tapestry of stories from this world and the next.

There is the tale of the boy who survived by clinging to the back of a crocodile. . .

And there are the stories of wandering ghosts, whose cries for help can be heard at night in haunted places that no villager dares to enter.

Mydans, relating her discussion with an anonymous photographer, paints a sad picture of life for the survivors.

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Speaking of ghosts, this is my own (true) Burmese ghost story.

North Korea back to building nuclear weapons?

According to AP, the Hermit Kingdom "has stopped disabling its nuclear reactor and will consider restoring the plutonium-producing facility in anger over Washington's failure to remove it from the U.S. list of terror sponsors."

The North Korean regime may also be annoyed that China's President Hu Jintao had just met with President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea. Or it may want some of the limelight of the US election coverage. Hard to know for sure.

Interesting to note the varying weight different news agencies give to the North Korean claim that the US had "violated" the agreement. For example, Reuters (via IHT) buries the specifics of the North Korean accusation, but Pyongyang's specific accusation features prominently in stories published by the Seoul Times and AP. According to AP "Removal from the terror list is one of key concessions offered to the North in exchange for shutting down and disabling the reactor under a landmark six-nation deal reached last year."

Update: Perhaps with all the acrimony exhibited by Washington towards Moscow, the North Koreans are testing the waters. There are too many issues -- like North Korea -- where the Russians and the Americans simply must work together.

Money, nationalism, and the Olympic spirit

Although the violations I have in mind are not as grave as Georgia and Russia having violated the the sacred "Olympic truce"* they are still troubling.

Today, China announced that every Chinese Olympic gold medalist would receive about US$ 50,000 from the state. Other countries also pay their medalists. This state of afairs brings to mind another feature of the original ancient Olympiads:

The victors of these early games received a ‘kotinos’, which was a wreath of olive branches from a sacred olive tree that grew behind the temple of Zeus, and which according to tradition Hercules (Heracles), founder of the games had planted.

In the old days, that was it. No check from your city-state, no million drachma sponsorship contract from the local olive farmers.

Beyond this, I think the spirit of the old games that most needs to be revived is the notion that the Olympics are about individual competition. The ancient games were a far cry from the hyper-nationalistic frenzy that we have today. Does anyone outside of China or the US care about their country's "national medal count" nowadays? Regardless, media organizations -- at least in China and the United States -- present the games to citizens in ways that reinforce nationalism. Television coverage that simply ignores foreign competitors -- and competitions in which foreigners succeed -- do the planet a disfavor. This approach is not only dull, it deprives viewers of precious opportunities to broaden their sympathies.

* Once known as the Ekecheiria. In classical times all hostile acts were prohibited for a period within one to three months of the Olympiad.

Thai protesters shut down a TV station

In the latest in a series of street demonstrations which began in earnest after the installation of the Thai government of Prime Minister Samak*, a mob has taken over the Thai government TV station. AP reports:

Dozens of anti-government protesters armed with knives and guns stormed a government-held TV station and briefly forced it off the air Tuesday, while thousands more peacefully laid siege to government ministries, witnesses and local media said.

Members of the People's Alliance for Democracy [PAD] stormed the National Broadcasting Services of Thailand studios in the Thai capital, forcing it to shut down for a few hours before police arrested the 50 to 80 protesters without incident, the broadcaster said.

You would think, with their nemesis Thaksin out of the country, having successfully provoked an armed standoff with the Cambodian army over an ancient temple on the border, this mob of protesters would call it quits. Not so. Undeterred, the PAD group still seems determined to overthrow the elected government that they still consider a proxy for The One They Hate.

Far from the latest activities marking the beginning of another coup, Bangkok Pundit surmises that the Samak government has been granted a gift; the opportunity it has been waiting for to crack down on the demonstrators -- people who have gotten away with causing much disruption:

I am failing to see how they can benefit from this. Tolerance in many sectors was wearing thin with their continued disruption of traffic yet not seemingly being able to achieve anything. Seizing a TV station and trying to seal off the capital is taking things too far. If ever, and no doubt he wants to, Samak can use the police to break up the protests, he can now do so.

Apparently, there have been calls by PAD leaders for further protests. Bangkok Pundit is updating his blog -- with news as it comes in --about the unrest.

Hillary supporter resentment

CNN's Cafferty asks whether not picking Hillary might cost Obama the election, blogging "there are signs of lingering deep bitterness between the Obama and Clinton camps."

I had assumed Hillary supporters would "get over it," but in the back of my mind was an incident in which I had been a participant.

While residing in the US, I became a member of a spontaneously assembled community group engaged in some emergency social activism. The stakes seemed high, our time limited. We assembled. Our group absolutely had to nominate two "speakers" to represent us at an upcoming town hall meeting.

One of the three people standing for nomination declared that "as a matter of principle," one of our two representatives "must be a woman." This woman had a large number of female supporters. The other two candidates -- both male -- vehemently disagreed. Gender absolutely should not be a criteria, they argued. To make a long story short, our activist group elected two representatives to attend the town hall -- neither one was female.

The reason I bring up this story was what followed. Not only did the candidate who was not nominated quit our community activist group, but so did many of the women who had voted for her. That so many of our members had simply chosen quit the community group over the outcome of this one vote had surprised me.

Today, I can't help but wonder if a similar psychology is at play among Hillary Democrats.

Photo (by printfection) A rare sighting?

Biden's strengths on display in the debates

And that's the way it is. Hat-tip Fallows.

Barack Obama has chosen Joe Biden!

In my estimation, Barack Obama could not have picked a better running mate in his bid for the American presidency.

I took this photo in July. Senator Joe Biden is shown on the left, next to Senator Lugar (center) and Senator Hagel (right).

These ranking members of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations were discussing the situation in Iran. Senator Joe Biden is Chairman of the committee.

Biden is one of his party's most experienced US foreign policy experts. He is also a veteran of presidential politics, lauching his first campaign for the presidency in 1987 and his most recent one in 2007.

Biden has been a US Senator for Delaware since 1973 when was only thirty, making him the fifth youngest senator in US history (30 is the minimum age for senators).

Who is Randy Scheunemann?

There something about the behavior of some Americans in the lead-up to the recent crisis in the Caucasus that stinks. I have touched on it in a number of posts. Now someone has nailed it.

In this previous post, I quoted from a Washington Post article that discussed the business activities of one Randy Scheunemann. That article left readers with a big question that begged to be asked far more emphatically: Who the hell is this man? To his everlasting credit, Pat Buchanan returns to the question, and then gives the answer the emphasis it deserves. The answer is disturbing:

Who is Randy Scheunemann?

He is the principal foreign policy adviser to John McCain and potential successor to Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski as national security adviser to the president of the United States.

But Randy Scheunemann has another identity, another role.

He is a dual loyalist, a foreign agent whose assignment is to get America committed to spilling the blood of her sons for client regimes who have made this moral mercenary a rich man.

From January 2007 to March 2008, the McCain campaign paid Scheunemann $70,000 -- pocket change compared to the $290,000 his Orion Strategies banked in those same 15 months from the Georgian regime of Mikheil Saakashvili.

What were Mikheil's marching orders to Tbilisi's man in Washington? Get Georgia a NATO war guarantee. Get America committed to fight Russia, if necessary, on behalf of Georgia.

Scheunemann came close to succeeding.

Had he done so, U.S. soldiers and Marines from Idaho and West Virginia would be killing Russians in the Caucasus, and dying to protect Scheunemann's client, who launched this idiotic war the night of Aug. 7.

By putting Scheunemann in in charge of his foreign policy team, surely McCain has proven -- among other things -- that he is simply not smart enough to be President.

Later in the piece, Buchanan asks:

. . . .what are McCain, Barack Obama, Bush, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel doing committing the United States and Germany to bringing Georgia into NATO? For that would commit us to war for a cause we have already conceded, by our paralysis, does not justify a war.

That's also a good question. This is the second outstanding article by Pat Buchanan I have read in relation to the Russia-Georgia conflict (a Jotman reader refers Buchanan's earlier article in Comments).
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Hat-tip Sullivan, photo shows Randy Scheunemann at the NATO summit in Latvia in 2006. I the above-quoted article, Buchanan also discusses how Scheunemann was instrumental in bringing the former Baltic Republics into NATO.

Evan Bayh: Obama's VP choice?

According to SF Gate, a company which specializes in political literature,* is printing Obama-Bayh bumper stickers. Evan Bayh is the U.S. Senator for Indiana.

Bayh appears somewhat lacking in the foreign policy experience. . . .
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* The company in question is Gill Studios, which actually invented
the bumper sticker.
Update: Obama will announce his choice at 10:00 EST.
Update: Tim Kaine, Governor of Virginia, is off the list.
Update: Huff Post report says Bayh is not the VP choice.

China security state growth forecast

Willy Lam, Hong Kong-based China scholar, writing in the Asian WSJ, sees two emergent trends continuing in the wake of the Beijing Olympics. First, growth in popular unrest; and second, the continued rise of the national security state. Lam writes:

Many of these incidents have to do with peasants whose land has been grabbed by corrupt officials, or workers and migrant laborers who have been deprived of their pensions and other rightful benefits. Confrontation between the masses and police is tipped to rise owing to recent difficulties in the economy. Some 67,000 medium-sized enterprises folded in the first half of the year. And the livelihood of workers and farmers has been rendered more difficult by inflation that is hovering between 6% and 7%.

Growing instability on various fronts has predisposed the Hu leadership toward strengthening the police-state apparatus that has been put together in the name of ensuring a trouble-free Olympics. Moreover, cadres in the law-and-order establishment, who include senior officials in the Central Political and Legal Commission as well as military, police and judicial departments, have gained immense clout, not to mention much more funding, since early this year.

These units have used their extra budgets to hire tens of thousands of new staff, in addition to acquiring hardware that includes state-of-the-art antiriot gear and hundreds of thousands of surveillance cameras and related equipment. It is in the vested interests of this fast-expanding law-and-order establishment to play up the imperative of eradicating "enemies of the party," whether real or imagined.

The two trends promise to feed one another, at least up to a point.

Moreover, as Naomi Klein recently described, the growth of the national security state in the US brought forth new technologies which Western companies now make available to the security apparatus of the Chinese Communist Party.

Who is Obama's vice president?

Update: Now it looks as if it could be Evan Bayh. More here.

The fact Obama has held off until the last minute to announce his running mate would seem to auger well for Hillary Clinton. In the last few days, it has become more clear that McCain is catching up. Having Hillay behind him could probably give Obama far more electoral support than any other pick. He needs Hillary's legions of working-class supporters -- voters Obama has yet to win over..

Obama is in trouble. According to the Democratic Party's pollster, among independent voters, Obama led polls by 14% a few months ago, but today, among independents, he is behind McCain by 10%.

There is certain excitement about combining Obama and Clinton on the one ticket. Call it the "fire and ice" factor. I think if Obama truly believes Hillary will help him to secure his victory, he will pick her.

Was the fall of Musharraf a triumph of civil society?

On the resignation of Pakistan President Musharraf, Rasul Bakhsh Rais of the Daily Times writes:

The real credit for causing Musharraf’s fall goes to civil society and the media, both new actors on Pakistan’s social and political scene. In all new democracies, where the transition from military to civilian rule has taken place, these two actors have proved catalysts of political change, and the agenda-setters and messengers of political forces.

Thomas, a longtime observer of South Asia, reflects on his blog:"What I find most interesting about Pakistani media reactions the day after is how openly Musharraf is criticized for his policy on Afghanistan and the Taliban." In particular, Thomas suggests the exposure of the former president's links to the Taliban might lead to more open discourse generally.

Invasions compared: Panama 1989 Vs Georgia 2008

"The goals of the United States have been to safeguard the lives of Americans"

- George H.W. Bush, 1989

"My duty as President right from the outset was to protect our fellow citizens."

- Dmitry Medvedev, 2008

US Presidential candidate John McCain has been among the most outspoken in voicing criticism of the Russian invasion of Georgia. Yet, of all US leaders, John McCain should know that there is nothing unusual about a superpower invading a satellite state and then claiming it had done so "in order to protect its own citizens" -- Russia's justification for the invasion of Georgia. After all, John McCain was born in Panama. And it probably would never have occurred to McCain to oppose the 1989 US invasion of his birthplace.

In fact, the United States used a similar line of reasoning to Russia's when it invaded Panama in December 1989. Washington unabashedly called the war "Operation Just Cause." Although American interests in Panama are not nearly as longstanding as Russia's presence in Georgia, the United States has had close ties to Panama since construction of the canal began in 1904. John McCain is a product of that close relationship. In an important respect, the ties of the United States to Panama mirror those of Russia to Georgia. The common denominator? Both Panama and Georgia are valued as strategic global transportation links.

In 1989 the father of the current US president, H.W. Bush sounded like President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia would, nineteen years later. Let's remind ourselves of what each man said in attempt to justify the invasion of a small neighbor.

The justification for US invasion of Panama:

In his 20 December 1989 statement to the American people, US President H.W. Bush claimed that Panamanian President Manuel Noriega had threatened the lives of the approximately 35,000 US citizens living there. Following are the words with which H.W. Bush justified the invasion of Panama(transcript):

My fellow citizens, last night I ordered U.S. military forces to Panama. No President takes such action lightly. This morning I want to tell you what I did and why I did it.

For nearly two years, the United States, nations of Latin America and the Caribbean have worked together to resolve the crisis in Panama. The goals of the United States have been to safeguard the lives of Americans, to defend democracy in Panama, to combat drug trafficking, and to protect the integrity of the Panama Canal treaty. Many attempts have been made to resolve this crisis through diplomacy and negotiations. All were rejected by the dictator of Panama, General Manuel Noriega, an indicted drug trafficker.

Last Friday, Noriega declared his military dictatorship to be in a state of war with the United States and publicly threatened the lives of Americans in Panama. The very next day, forces under his command shot and killed an unarmed American serviceman; wounded another; arrested and brutally beat a third American serviceman; and then brutally interrogated his wife, threatening her with sexual abuse. That was enough.

General Noriega's reckless threats and attacks upon Americans in Panama created an imminent danger to the 35,000 American citizens in Panama. As President, I have no higher obligation than to safeguard the lives of American citizens. And that is why I directed our Armed Forces to protect the lives of American citizens in Panama and to bring General Noriega to justice in the United States. [ . . .]

I am committed to strengthening our relationship with the democratic nations in this hemisphere. I will continue to seek solutions to the problems of this region through dialog and multilateral diplomacy. I took this action only after reaching the conclusion that every other avenue was closed and the lives of American citizens were in grave danger. [ . . .]

The justification for the Russian invasion of Georgia:

President Dmitry Medvedev explained that a top Russian justification for invading Georgia was protecting lives of Russian citizens. Here is a translation of Russian Federation President Medvedev words to Russian party leaders, delivered on August 11, 2008 (ISN):

Colleagues,

Today’s meeting with the leaders of the parliamentary factions is taking place in extraordinary circumstances and is extremely important for us all. On the night of August 7-8, Georgia committed an act of military aggression directed primarily against the people of South Ossetia and the Russian peacekeeping brigade deployed in this region. They used heavy artillery, tanks, aviation and the regular army to literally wipe Tskhinvali, its homes, hospitals and schools, from the face of the Earth. Several thousand people have become victims of the ensuing humanitarian disaster, and a large number of them are our fellow citizens.

In just a few hours all of the agreements that existed at that point were made null and void, not to mention that all the basic principles of international law have been violated: the wounded have had no chance to get treatment and refugees have not had the possibility of evacuation. This is the tragic result of the unspeakable aggressive act that Georgia, the Georgian authorities, has committed...

. . . As I have said, my duty as President right from the outset was to protect our fellow citizens and not let the crimes committed against civilians and peacekeepers go unpunished. Russia wants to end this barbarity against the Ossetian people and against our citizens as soon as possible.

I repeat now what I said several days ago, namely that Russia has historically always been the guarantor of the security of the peoples of the Caucasus. This is our mission and our duty. We have never been just passive observers in this region and never will be.

We are doing everything within our power. Russia will not leave its fellow citizens in misfortune and will strive to normalise the situation.

Both Panama and Georgia lie within the respective historical "spheres of influence" of the superpowers.

Georgia and Panama resemble one another in several ways.

Comparing two satellite states
Panama and Georgia are eerily similar in respect to land area, population, and economic strength.

• land areas: 76,000 km² (Panama) Vs 70,000 km² (Georgia)
• population: 2,500,000 (Panama, 1992) Vs 4,600,000 (Georgia, 2006)
• per-capital income: $2,000 (Panama, 1992) $4,700 (Georgia, 2006)

Interestingly, a GDP of $2,000 in 1989 would be the equivalent to about $4,100 today. At the time of the respective conflicts, the economic status of Panamanians and Georgians were comparable.

The military conflicts
What similarities might be identified between the the US invasion of Panama in 1989 and the Russian-Georgian conflict 2008?

Although the number of the US invasion forces striking Panama --57,684 U.S. troops and over 300 aircraft --exceeded the acknowledged acknowledged size of Russia's Georgia invasion force -- 38,000 troops -- both superpowers suffered similar casualties.

• Panama: Americans lost 24 killed, 325 wounded
• Georgia: Russians lost 64 soldiers killed, 323 wounded

On the Panamanian side, between 100 and 1,000 Panama soldiers' lives were lost, and estimates for deaths of Panama civilians range as high as 2,000 to 5,000 due to the extensive use of heavy weapons by the United States in Panama City. In the Georgia conflict, the Georgians report 215 have been killed and 300 remain missing. The number of civilian deaths is in unknown, but could well number in the thousands.

The objectives
It is with regard to the objectives of the superpowers where one significant difference lies between the actions of the US almost twenty years ago in Panama and those of Russia in Georgia today. The US invasion of Panama overthrew the regime of Manuel Noriega. But Russia has not, at least as of this date, overthrown the government of Georgia, nor has it proclaimed any intention to do so.

It is no small irony that among the loudest voices opposing Russia's recent military actions in the Caucasus is John McCain, the Panamanian candidate.
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Other sources: Wikipedia South Ossetia War, Wiki Georgia, Wiki Panama, Wiki US Invasion of Panama. Top photo shows McCain's father and grandfather at the US naval base in Panama.