Showing posts with label Malaysia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Malaysia. Show all posts

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Muslim population of the world


One in four of us is a Muslim according to a recent Pew Study.

The study notes that "previously published estimates of the size of the global Muslim population have ranged widely, from 1 billion to 1.8 billion."  The Pew study pegs the number at 1.57 billion (23 percent of the total global population of 6.8 billion). There are 2.25 billion Christians.  Some facts about the world's Muslim population might surprise you: 
  • India has more Muslims than any country except for Indonesia and Pakistan..
  • China has more Muslims than Malaysia (or Syria).
  • Germany has more Muslims than Lebanon.
  • And Russia has more Muslims than Jordan and Libya put together.
  • 15% of all Muslims live in sub-Saharan Africa and another 15% live in Southeast Asia. 
This is also good to know:
Of the total Muslim population, 10-13% are Shia Muslims and 87-90% are Sunni Muslims. Most Shias (between 68% and 80%) live in just four countries: Iran, Pakistan, India and Iraq.

In four countries - Iran, Azerbaijan, Bahrain and Iraq - Shia Muslims make up a majority of the total population.
Graphic: Pew designed an impressive interactive map -- see here.  A "weighted" map is here.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Asia's future: Capitalism sans freedom?

Jotman's live-blogging the International Press Institute (IPI) World Congress in Helsinki continues...

This panel and its agenda:

Can Economies Survive without Free Media?
Critics of the "Asian Values" propounded in the 1990s argued that they were a mere a justification by authoritarian regimes to suppress universal human rights. Yet the economies of such countries as Singapore and, in particular, China have continued to thrive without democratic reform. Will they now need a free media to help overcome the drag of the global financial crisis, corruption, and such problems as China's unsafe products?
  • Yuen-Ying Chan, Director, Journalism and Media Studies Centre, University of Hong Kong
  • Anthony Milner, professor of history, ANU
  • Xiao Qiang, Founder, China Digital Times; Director, China Internet Project, Graduate School of Journalism, UC Berkeley
  • Matt Steinglass (Moderator), Correspondent, DPA (German News Agency), Hanoi

Matt Steinglass, the moderator, questioned the media's ability to cover corruption, given the strict government restrictions on covering politics in Vietnam.

Yuen-Ying Chan, Director, Journalism and Media Studies Centre, the University of Hong Kong says media in China is neither free nor unfree. Fortunately, due to the Internet, there is space for dialogue.

The Internet is growing fast, with almost 300 million Internet users in China. Ninety percent on broadband. One third on mobile platforms.

Mobile phones are used to post photos. In Feb. there was a fire in the TVCC tower in Beijing. Within 30 minutes the picture of this 30 story building burning had been posted on the Internet. Although state broadcaster CCTV had an office close to the fire, the Internet led coverage of the fire. A story went in an online magazine, but got reposted elsewhere.

There are many examples of officials being forced on the defensive, to defend themselves against stories published on the Internet.

Xiao Qiang of UC Berekely showed a slide (next image). Shows that bloggers and online bulletin boards have the power to reconfigure the media and political landscape. These people are the frontline facing the state apparatus. This is where the most interesting things are happening. Issues of importance to the people first get raised on the blogs.


Showed us a confidential document from the propaganda department. Explaining what can be reported. What they say is conformed to by the official media.

Projected a graph (next image) showing how more and more frequently things raised on blogs reach up to become part of the national discourse and national consensus.

One blogger posted a list of names of children killed in a school collapse. Before long this information becomes part of the policy debate at the highest levels of state.


Look how search terms "free speech" "censorship" grow quickly (right image). Citizen, democracy, system reform search terms also growing – use of these words – increasing faster than growth of users on the Internet. Even taking new users into account, growth in frequency of these search terms is fast.


Also, the number of Chinese websites mentioning "democracy" has grown. Again this growth exceeds the pace of growth of the Internet (left image).



So what? What does this mean?



It means that momentum towards press freedom is facilitated by the Internet.



But society is still totalitarian: the vested interest of Party is not aligned with public as in a democracy.

Consider history. Consider that twenty years ago, in 1989 when the Tienanmen massacre happened, and the collapse of USSR followed, all these China watchers were saying that the Chinese regime's days were numbered. Now we all know China has had a successful totalitarian regime -- for which -- due to financial crisis, the West now turns to as a partner (in maintaining the global system).



I leave you with this question: How do we know, what makes us so sure that this time around -- with everyone assuming the regime will continue -- that the experts have China right?

Anthony Milner, professor of history at the Australian National University suggested that "the current global crisis is unlikely to demonstrate the particular economic strength of democracies." Looking to the future, he sounded some cautionary notes based on the track record of some Asian countries:

  • Philippines and Indonesia are more democratic, but not prosperous. Singapore ranks high as non-corrupt country, near Finland. Malaysia, China have more corruption. Thailand too. Indonesia, despite relaxation of media controls, has a lot of corruption.
  • Need to look to 97-98. Geopolitical consequence of the earlier crisis. Singapore and Malaysia -- nations with little freedom -- handled crisis relatively well.
  • Today's financial crisis looks like a "democratic" recession. Asia looks to be coming out of the crisis today.
  • Militarily, in terms of power balance, crisis seems destined to have an adverse impact on West. What of values struggle?
  • China may face values contest within Asia.
  • Bottom line: the old liberal agenda -- including freedom of the press -- is likely to face serious resistance in the future.

Yuen-Ying Chan says private ownership of the media has been undermined. It is not working. It has collapsed.

"The blogs are where people speak there mind in China. It's not what people say to a camera on the street."

Matt Steinglass: (In Vietnam) I don't see big corruption stories picked up by bloggers on the Internet, I see them picked up by professional reporters.

Nationalism may be playing an increasing role (in stirring up interest in corruption stories). For example, there was the story of Thaksin's sale of his telecom firm to Singapore. Seemed to be a case where nationalism is a new factor in media narratives. A trend perhaps.

Xiao Qiang: There is the need to legitimize party. One way is through performance; another is through a new nationalist narrative. So they are trying to construct a narrative of Chinese nationalism. There seems to be no intellectually coherent value behind Chinese nationalism. Are we witnessing a nationalism "bubble" in China? Perhaps. Maybe we are overestimating the importance of nationalism.

Yuen-Ying Chan: Young Chinese are not so brainwashed....

Question from Dave Underhill of Global Post: What gets through from West? What do you see as the role or potential of new media in the West impacting what happens in China?

Xiao Qiang: In China, if you have the incentive, then you can get around the censorship. There is more and more censorship more all the time. The people who know how to circumvent the censors are those with enough curiosity and incentive to do so. These people tend to be the opinion leaders in China, who then, in turn, put this information into circulation in the Chinese domestic discourse.

The important point is that the intended audience of the Western media is different. It's not the Chinese. That's one reason the Tibetan issue generated controversy. The background knowledge on the issue is different. The underlying perspective is different. If you want the Western media to have an impact on China, you have to know how the audience in China. You would need to take the Chinese audience into consideration in the reporting of the story. I don't think that's on the agenda of the Western media today.

Yuen-Ying Chan: I would caution: don't write off the Chinese state media either, or the official media. I would like to see some representatives from the Chinese media in future (media freedom related) conferences (such as this one). I think they could contribute and learn from future gatherings.

Xiao Qiang: We should not over-estimate the power of the Western media when it comes to China. The official Chinese media have real advantages. They have 1) access Westerners won't get, 2) real understanding, and 3) experience. The best scenario is everyone working in context, together, using each other's strengths to get China right.

Anthony Milner: As for Southeast Asia – nationalism is making a (critical) space. You have to deal with Islamic ideas in careful terms; but this can open up space too.

Matt Steinglass: True these (critical) spaces -- i.e. Islam in Indonesia -- (theoretically at least) seem to allow people to make claims that may be critical of their governments.

Often in Vietnam, there will be a designated spokesperson liaison for media, but that person can never be found. Maybe there is a generation gap... It often seems to me as if old people in Vietnam need approval to speak, whereas the young will say what they think.

Xiao Qiang: Because there is control, therefore online discourse tends not to be explicit...

Question (Netherlands): One lesson i pick up from here is that we need to converge the frame of mind of a countryman, and of the international press. In terms of Africa, it seems to me the Internet could play a role. To what extent could converging the news rooms of the West and Asia come to contribute to the media in Africa?

Yuen-Ying Chan: The bottom line is that people want to express themselves and don't want to be lied to. I would point to this basic commonality of values. In spite of the tight control of the party, the country has a robust IT infrastructure, allowing citizen journalism to develop. These citizen journals will push the ideas of openness. It means that building the enabling structure of IT infrastructure has to be on the development agenda.

Anthony Milner: The convergence question. I think there are problems with that. There is the style question; the recognition of local styles question. A grabbing back into past to seek dignity. A bad century or two (of colonialism) leads to this looking back. How one couches arguments about the media seems to me very important indeed. "Digging back" is important in this region.

Question (World Press Freedom representative): We tried inviting Chinese official representatives to our conference. But they (basically sent people to spy) on the attendees of our conference. And we later had incidents of hacking against the sites of people who were at the conference. So dialogue is one thing, but it is not so easy as it sounds.

Yuen-Ying Chan: There are different types of groups that you can reach out to. I appreciate the difficulties. They will have to make decisions. They need to work, they need to adapt international standards.

Xiao Qiang: Southern Media Group is the one of the most progressive news media organizations in China. Under the relatively autonomous government of the southern province that has politicians who support it (and so it is not subject to direct central government oversight).



Jotman live-blogged the following panel discussions at the IPI World Congress:

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

What kind of bear is Russia?

Jotman's live-blogging of the International Press Institute (IPI) World Congress in Helsinki continues...

A changing situation means new chance. Let's take a chance to make a new detente as has been made in Helsinki many years ago.

- Anatoly Adamishin

I met CNN anchor Jim Clancy at the Helsinki International Airport. Jim would be moderating the upcoming panel discussion on Russia at the IPI World Congress.

"I like to break these things up," Jim said as he hailed a cab. "Grab a mike, walk around the room. Make the audience part of the discussion." Jim added, "I don't want the speakers to drone on, putting everyone to sleep -- bor-ing!"

Jim's panel would be
anything but boring.

The panelists included:
  • Anatoly Adamishin, former USSR ambassador to the UK; as ambassador to Italy he first worked for the USSR and finished up his term as Russian ambassador.
  • Edward Lucas, Eastern European correspondent for The Economist.
  • Brahma Chellaney, whom the IHT refers to as "one of India's top strategic thinkers."
As a Finnish taxi driver opened the back hatch and loaded our bags, arranging them neatly, Jim told me it had not been easy to get in touch with Anatoly Adamishin.

"I hope that the Russian ambassador doesn't think I chose the title because I didn't," Jim said.

I knew what Jim meant. This is how the panel had been described in the literature:

“The Bear on the Doorstep – Russia’s Resurgence and the Start of a New Cold War?”

A natural gas pricing dispute that left vast parts of Central and Eastern Europe in the cold; a five-day war with Georgia to defend the rights of Russian citizens living in separatist enclaves; and threats to do the same in other areas – is Russia trying to restore some of its former status, or is this a sign of a possible new Cold War?

As it happened, I had lunch with Anatoly Adamishin just prior to the panel discussion.

"I notice the topic refers to the 'resurgence' of the 'Russian bear,'" I said. "Should we all be afraid of the bear?"

"The bear is relaxing now" Adamishin replied.

We finished our lunch and made our way to the conference room of Finlandia Center -- site of the 1975 Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe which gave rise to the Helsinki Accords. The setting of such an historic meeting -- one which would improve
relations between the Communist bloc and the West -- seemed a fitting venue for this panel discussion.

Jim Clancy
: The big question today -- if you're a journalist -- is: Who's in charge of Russia?

Edward Lucus: If there was an election today in Russia, Putin would win. Seventy percent believe Medvedev follows Putin, does whatever Putin wants.

A law going through the Duma will criminalize any challenges to a pro-Stalinist version of history.

Brahma Chellaney: The big picture is that Russia is the world's wealthiest country in terms of its natural resources. And we don't know its future direction at the moment.

Anatoly Adamishin: Don't keep a bear until he's filled up. If you want me to speak about Russia's internal situation, I may tell you Russia is without democracy. Why? Small demand for it. Why? Many reasons. First is historical. Second, ruin of the 90s connected to the democracy under Yeltsin.

Russians enjoy three freedoms. First is to make money; second is travel abroad; third is to pray to God. They are so busy enjoying these freedoms they don't think about political liberties. There has been an increase from 200 billion to 1.7 trillion in GDP under Putin -- eight times!

Jim Clancy: Here's a statistic: 80% have no responsibility for what goes on in their country.

Edward Lucas: Sure living standards have gone up, but investment in infrastructure has lagged. Media is under control of the Kremlin and media doesn't ask the embarrassing questions: when money getting skimmed off this doesn't make it into the press.

Jim Clancy: Roots of Animosity to the West?

Brahma Chellaney: The West has been turning a blind eye to the effects of NATO enlargement [Jotman: see here and here]; the West ignored Russian opposition to Kosovo independence, making it awkward to oppose similar right of self-determination in South Ossetia.

Jim Clancy: Is there freedom, today?

Anatoly Adamishin: There were 300,000 functionaries in USSR; but there are 3,000,000 in Russia today. I like to tell this story about first year after civil war during the 20's. Will life win over socialism or socialism win over life? That was the question then. Socialism won then, but life became a bit lousy. Now I fear that bureaucracy could corrupt the rising energy and entrepreneurship of young Russia, the Internet. Will the bureaucracy squeeze out the dynamism? (Will bureaucracy win over life, or life win over bureaucracy?)

Jim Clancy: What's happening to press freedoms?

Edward Lucas: Some of my (Russian) friends are dead because they pushed press freedoms too far. Billions came in from West, little of it reached people who needed it.

Although the 90s were corrupt, at least there was scrutiny of the government by the press. Each oligarch had its own television station. Even Putin could be ridiculed.

Putin didn't just take television stations away from oligarchs; he gave them to his friends.

Brahma Chellaney:
A comparison of Russia to Singapore and Malaysia is in order. The West doesn't criticize these one-party states to the same extent. Why not? Because they are close to the West. But you find many of the same restrictions as in Russia, it's not really any worse.

Anatoly Adamishin: We need Western cooperation. We don't have the money to modernize Russia on own own. We can't rely on China.

Edward Lucas: At Davos Putin was approached by Gates or Jobs. Putin replied to Gates or Jobs "go away." (Implication was that Putin thought Russia didn't need their help.)

We must not allow weak countries to pay the cost. Thank goodness we brought the Baltics into the country. I'm sorry Russia doesn't want to join NATO....

Question by Tina of Russia Today Television: Do you think just easier to have Russia as enemy simply because the West needs an enemy.

Anatoly Adamishin: I don't like NATO. Because it's a a military alliance. Because the US plays the main role. If you are outside Russia then you can be part of NATO. NATO is a military alliance that fought in 1999 over Serbia, and now makes war in Afghanistan.

Why is it that Russia disagrees with NATO? We disagree just because we don't want to be left out. When we are out and everyone else is in, then we don't like it. I would say the so-called "imperial dream" is -- from a practical point of view -- out of sight. We have to live within our means. Our neighbors shouldn't be afraid. The imperial project is too big; our people in the government too practical. Can't do business along with this (imperial) project.

Brahma Chellaney: Three pillars of the world: China, EU, and US.

Russia is the most important swing state in world. More so than India or China. Russia truly is the wildcard. A wrong policy choice on Russia by the West can push Russia inexorably in the wrong direction.

In early July Obama will be in Moscow. US going slow on missile defense in E Europe. Can US and Russia redefine relationship?

Anatoly Adamishin: The US must not treat Russia's neighbors as if Russia did not exist. Ethnic conflicts in Georgia have long history. The borders were drawn by Stalin -- a Georgian. Failure of the USSR caused turmoil. Georgians tried to settle ethnic conflict by military means. Four and a half wars. Mikheil Saakashvili (talked?). There were solutions. [Jotman: see my Georgia-Russia conflict timeline]

Georgians, armed by Americans, said 'we are not afraid of Russia.' I believe war was linked to two factors: First, (it was assumed that) Russia wouldn't have courage; second, (the intention to launch) a blitzkrieg war, aimed drive Russia out of South Ossetia. If Russia didn't respond, Russia would have lost its authority in all of the region. No country would tolerate it. Not the US, and certainly not Britain with respect to the Falklands.

Edward Lucas: (Didn't agree.) The time frame is the problem. Increased shelling by Russia of villages loyal to Tbilisi -- (that's what caused Tbilisi) to send troops north.

Jim Clancy: Russia's neighbors are afraid. Why?

Brahma Chellaney: Russia, with its enormous size and clout, is able to exploit political instability in the neighborhood.

Dutch journalist: You still think Russia should have veto power over its neighbors?

Anatoly Adamishin: Kosovo was a bad precedent. A very bad precedent for our Caucus. That was the provocation. Who was first to provoke, etc.

Now Caucuses people live well in Moscow. One million Georgians work in Russia. Big source of money for Georgia. Many Ukrainians work in Russia too.

Jim Clancy: How many journalists think Russia poses a danger to its smaller neighbors?

Nigerian journalist: (Alleges Gazprom is involved in espionage in Nigeria - that the company has exerted heavy pressure on the Nigerian gas industry.)

Anatoly Adamishin: I'm not here to defend my government. I am not on their pay list anymore.

Russia's decline is the story of volatile oil prices. Higher prices mean less pressure to diversify economy.

Edward Lucas: If "inside Russia" breakaway is bad, why "outside" breakaway good? Econo -- history lessons. Google for the Youtube video "Putin Estonia" Shocking!

Development, define broadly, includes press freedom, civil society

Anatoly Adamishin: Blame is on both sides, common enemy: first, after the cold war; second, after 9/11. We missed 2 chances. Now we have a third chance.

A changing situation means a new chance. Let's take a chance to make a new detente as has been made in Helsinki many years ago.

Brahma Chellaney: The world cannot afford a new cold war. Don't bait a bear. For example, China has come a long way since 89. The decision not institute trade sanctions has (proved successful). Had the Burma sanctions approach been applied to China in '89, a more poor, more destabilizing China would have likely have resulted.

Edward Lucas: That question from the Nigerian journalist was important. It concerns Europe sleepwalking to disaster on energy. Europe won't build the pipeline it needs and wants. Europe should treat Gazprom as it treats Microsoft. Its far worse than Microsoft. Russia has to play by the rules. Though lots don't.... Must clean up financial system -- it is used and abused by corrupt. This will hit the Kremlin ...

Anatoly Adamishin: My prediction? If Russia enters the WTO at the end of this year, then there will be no cold war.
____
Photos by Jotman (from top down): no sooner had the conference came to a close than Helsinki was invaded by Russian football fans; Clancy speaks with Adamishin after the conference; Clancy with Chellaney in the background; Clancy has handed the mike to a journalist in the audience; Adamishin and Lucas spar (2 photos); Chellaney, the dispassionate; a Russian football fan in Helsinki; a Nigerian points a finger a Gazprom; Chellaney speaks as Lucas looks on.

__
I asked Russian Jotman reader Sanjuro, who comes from Sibera, to share his reflections on to the discussion. These reactions are outlined in several posts:

Jotman live-blogged the following panel discussions at the IPI World Congress:

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Putting climate change on Asia's development agenda

Prior to a press conference by Stephen Timms, Financial Secretary to the Treasury (UK), I spoke with Prof. Kenny Tang, a UK-based Malaysian expert on climate change policy in Asia.

Kenny echoed some familiar sentiments about any proposed stimulus spending: namely, the fear that stimulus spending might mitigate climate change, but could instead exacerbate the problem.

"There is a lot of ignorance in Southeast Asia about climate change. For example, they don't know about claiming carbon credits," said Kenny.

Kenny says that the lions' share of carbon credits are being claimed by China.

When I suggested to Kenny that developing world governments ought to build urban mass transportation infrastructure, Kenny noted that countries should also address how they build new infrastructure. He cited the need for ensuring that future projects embrace environmentally-sound building materials, etc.

Climate change talk in Southeast Asia must amount to more than "greenwashing" Kenny told me.

Inside the press conference hall, Financial Secretary to the Treasury Stephen Timms (website) was asked about climate change.

Timms responded, "We need to keep the focus on the longer-term problems the world is encountering such as climate change and poverty. This crisis presents a very big opportunity to bring together recovery and green investment."

Timms added that he would leave it to a minister -- Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change -- to elaborate on the topic. Hearing this, I thought that so long as the finance ministry leaders are asking the environment ministry to elaborate on climate change measures, this is as fair an indication as any that environmental concerns are not anywhere near the top of any summit's agenda.

In terms of the summit outcome, Timms noted firstly, "the biggest expansionary push in history" and secondly, progress on "tax havens."

Concerning the first point, it remains to be seen whether the expansionary spending -- why didn't he use the word stimulus? -- went beyond anything that had not already been agreed well before the conference.

Timms also said that the G20 nations had agreed to "at least double IMF funding." Timms said that Mexico's agreement to accept IMF funds was a signal that there was no longer any "stigma" attached to accepting IMF loans -- with Mexico having agreed to take advantage of an IMF loan despite being "a strong economy."

One reporter asked Timms about whether France and Germany were cooperating with the UK and US initiative to push for greater stimulus spending across the G20.

Timms replied that all countries had a "shared interest in a successful summit outcome." I think it will be a successful outcome; I am very optimistic." But then Timms added more starkly: "We all know in the 1930s what the consequences were, what they could be again."
_____
Photos: by Jotman. First photo shows Asian climate change policy expert Prof. Kenny Tang meeting with the UK Financial Secretary to the Treasury Stephen Timms; second photo shows Timms speaking at the press conference.

Update: It looks like nothing whatsoever will be decided at the summit concerning climate change; summit leaders would leave it up to the IMF to decide to what extent climate change would factor into stimulus spending.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Tourists fleeing Bangkok troubles head for Southern Provinces

There is something strange -- alarming even -- about this story. The Bangkok Post reports:
In Hat Yai, Songkhla's commercial district, a large of number of foreign tourists arrived to board planes out of the country. The stranded tourists have headed to Hat Yai, from where they can fly or go overland to Malaysia and Singapore and return to their home countries from there. "Several hundred buses to Malaysia and Singapore are fully booked.
The newspaper report talks about how tourists can "go overland from Hat Yai" to Malaysia. I have made the trip myself, though not recently. I do not think overland travel through the Southern Provinces especially advisable, considering the insurgency. The article continues:
The tourists have been advised to come to Hat Yai for flights to Malaysia or Singapore and then return home," said Kriangkrai Samphankul, chairman of the Phatthalung tourism association. "But some are taking the opportunity to explore Hat Yai as well while they are here."
At least in Bangkok tourists have not been the targets of violence. But the same cannot necessarily be said of Hat Yai over the past several years:
  • The first big bomb in Hat Yai . . . Hat Yai Airport, Carrefour Superstore and various night spots in town, killing two people and injuring 30. (April 3, 2005)
  • At least four people were killed and 82 were injured. Among those killed were a Malaysian, a Canadian and two Thai people. (Sept. 16, 2006)
  • Seven coordinated bomb attacks left Songkhla's popular tourist centre of Had Yai reeling last night. They injured 13 people, including one women whom police said was in a serious condition. (May 28, 2007)
Who would have thought that foreign tourists would start flocking to a region of Thailand that has been a virtual war zone for several years?

___
See Also: My other recent posts about the Bangkok Airport crisis and the PAD demonstrations that have rocked Thailand.
Maps: Dr Srisompob Jitpiromsri and Panyasak Sobhonvasu, "Unpacking Thailand's southern conflict: The poverty of structural explanations" Critical Asian Studies 38:1 (2006), p95-117 at p109 (academic access only) via Bangkok Pundit and NY Times.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Indonesia: Do costly Credit Default Swaps and a weak rupiah spell 1997?

Credit Default Swaps -- explained in more detail here (Newsweek/Time) and here (CBS, video) -- may not only be the key to understanding the perils in the US economic crisis, but the potential for the financial crisis to bring misery to Southeast Asia -- particularly Indonesia.

Credit Default Swaps are used to insure investments in the region's resource economy. A Newsweek article I quoted (here) explains how this financial instruments have come to be used:
Before long, credit default swaps were being used to encourage investors to buy into risky emerging markets such as Latin America and Russia by insuring the debt of developing countries. Later, after corporate blowouts like Enron and WorldCom, it became clear there was a big need for protection against company implosions, and credit default swaps proved just the tool. By then, the CDS market was more than doubling every year, surpassing $100 billion in 2000 and totaling $6.4 trillion by 2004.
As I noted in a previous post, investors bailed out of the Indonesian stock market on Wednesday, leading to the closure of the Jakarta market Thursday.* Were those investments backed by CDS?

India's ET reported on the Jakarta market's closure Friday afternoon in Jakarta:
Indonesia's five-year credit default swaps (CDS) surged to as high as 725 basis points at one point, from 600 basis point early on Friday. That was well above the 410 bps at which the similarly-rated Philippines' CDS was trading at.

"People just want to get their money out of Indonesia," said a Singapore-based fund manager. "We haven't forgotten what happened 10 years ago."
An article in the FT suggests that the rising cost of CDS for Indonesia, and the contaminant drop in the rupiah, may spark a contagion of currency devaluations with consequences reminiscent of the 1997 crisis:

Before its Wednesday suspension, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index was down 21 per cent this week, the worst weekly fall since at least April 1983, while the rupiah declined a further 0.7 per cent to 9,635 per dollar, near its lowest level in three years, reported Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Credit-default swap contracts on Indonesia meanwhile jumped 80bp to 560 on Wednesday afternoon, meaning it costs $80,000 more a year to protect $10m of the country’s debt from default for five years.

“Too much of the Indonesian market is tied to commodities,'’ Kim Yong Tae, of Yurie Asset Management in Seoul told Bloomberg. “Also, the currency is very weak, suggesting that a lot of speculative money is pulling out of the market.'’

And that is precisely what happened in 1997.

The FT writer's argument goes that Indonesia is headed into a spiral of a weakening currency relative to the yen and other major currencies. One big difference this time around is that some countries in the region such as Thailand, are no longer deeply in debt.

There is surprisingly little information available on the Internet concerning the price of Credit Default Swaps in other Southeast Asian economies such as Malaysia and Thailand (except in relation to those that had been held by Lehman Bros).
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* The Bangkok market dropped almost 10% on Friday. Singapore dropped 7% and the island slipped into recession. Jakarta was closed. As for other Asian markets, Hong Kong dropped 7%, and Tokyo dropped 10%.

Kommersant interview with Victor Bout

A JOTMAN EXCLUSIVE

Victor Bout, the notorious arms dealer, is presently being held in a high-security Bangkok prison. The US is pressuring Thailand to extradite him. On the other hand, the Russian government does not want the extradition to proceed. Bout's recent interview with the Russian newpaper Kommersant has been translated for us in full by Sanjuro, a long-time Jotman reader.
Viktor Bout Interview
by Olga Allenova
for The Kommersant

10.10.2008
Translation by Russian Jotman reader Sanjuro

Today a Thai court will continue hearings on the extradition of Viktor Bout, who is being charged with illegal arms trade by the American authorities. A special correspondent of the Kommersant, Olga Allenova took this interview from Mr. Bout at the Bangkok Central Prison.

It was not very difficult to see Mr Bout; according to the rules of the Bangkok Central Prison, anyone who is willing, may have a half-an-hour meeting with a prisoner. It’s only up to the prisoner if he or she is willing to have the appointment. However, local authorities were assuring me that Bout does not see journalists, especially on the eve of the very unpredictable extradition hearings.

Still, unexpectedly for me, Bout agreed to see me. I was invited to a crowded waiting hall, under the roof, right in the steaming hot jail yard. Every half-an-hour an attendant announces times for the meetings. Viktor Bout was brought into the meeting room after lunch. Wearing a blue t-shirt, looking smart and happy, he first thing warned that he didn’t believe Western media as they “misrepresented” him. The room was divided by a glass wall, with prisoners on one side and visitors on the other. Using electronic equipment, including cameras and dictaphones is prohibited, by I was allowed to take notes. We started the conversation.

* * * * *

The American side alleges that in recent times you participated in an arms deal aimed to sell weapons illegally to the Colombian terrorist organization FARC. The prosecution’s report cites a DEA special agent as a witness, who allegedly sent his associates to you and persuaded you to do the deal. Are you familiar with the people who, according to the Americans, negotiated with you about this deal?

I know none of those people who, by the way, are not even called by their real names, only by codenames, and the circumstances that you are talking about, I only learned about them from the prosecution’s report. The whole thing is based on the principle: “odna babka skazala” (Translator: a Russian proverb, literally “one old lady said…” unverified information based on verbal accounts of untrustworthy people).

The case names some witnesses named SA-1, SA-2, SA-3 etc, with whom you allegedly had negotiations in Bucharest, Copenhagen…

This is some 1937 stuff. Only nicknames, no real names. And these mythical witnesses that nobody has seen, are supposed to be believed? And you know what is interesting? I have never been neither in Bucharest, nor on Curacao, nor in Copenhagen. Somebody, allegedly acting on my behalf, does some dealings, and that is enough to sign a warrant in my name. I can only applaud these people.

Do you mean Smulyan (Smulian?) who allegedly was acting on your behalf in those negotiations?

I don’t think it was Smulyan. There was one other person who allegedly was negotiating with Smulyan. And personally, I only had one case of dealings with Smulyan, it was about a sale of a few airplanes. Those were my assets remaining after the collapse of my airline. Smulyan said he had a customer who was interested in the purchase but could not decide where to meet.

And you chose Thailand to discuss this deal?

I came to Thailand on personal reasons, health and recreation. It was a coincidence that Smulyan too decided to come here. I didn’t arrange to meet anyone else.

You were arrested on your first day in Thailand. How did that happen?

I checked in, had some shower, went out to the lobby, saw Smulyan there and we had a talk. I went back to the room and the Americans broke in there. They searched the room, and as far as I could understand they were going to quietly take me out of the country. Like Smulyan. But then the Thai police intervened, they said “no, we’re taking him to the precinct”. They kept me there from 3 AM to 11 PM, because the Americans could not send a copy of the arrest warrant. That is, I was being held illegally. The Americans infringed in the Thai sovereignty. The whole operation was not even coordinated with the Thai law enforcement agencies. The Americans gave their false allegations to the Thai court which believed them and issued a warrant for my arrest. Even three warrants were issued, and two criminal cases were started against me - I guess just in case a single charge is dismissed within a day. And when the Thai realized they had been fooled, they closed the case, but by then the Americans had sent an extradition request.

Do you mean that first the Thai believed that you are an arms dealer, but then they refused to?

Then they sorted it out. It was complicated. The Americans did not immediately show all their cards. First everyone thought: Bout is meeting some mafia in Thailand, and the Americans are taking him right on spot. And when it became clear that there is no mafia at all and no other participants in the “negotiations”, apart from the American agents, then the case was closed.

This is a fabricated case, but even the fabrication is unprofessional because, if I am such a great arms dealer, then why cannot you provide one single proved fact, and resort to some provocations?

How come that you stayed behind in Thailand while Smulyan has left? Do you believe that he has agreed to collaborate with the American special services and has “sold” you?

Unfortunately I don’t know why he left. But I don’t think he sold or not sold anyone. I know him for many years and trust him. I think he’s just a victim like myself.

But the prosecution’s position is also based on his word?

Is that enough to charge a person with anything? Who knows what a person can say under pressure? The point is that the prosecution is based on the evidence of the American agent who refused to answer most of the questions in the last hearings. Which means they are offering a deal like this: We won’t tell you anything and won’t prove anything. Just give us Bout and we will deal with him ourselves.

What is your expectation on the extradition case?

We’ll see. You see, the Americans are behaving in this country like in their own back yard. How do you like this statement by the US Attorney General who was on a seminar of the Thai judges and who said that Bout’s extradition would be the best gift for his birth day? They just fabricated false charges and a fake warrant, just took advantage of the situation. I should not have come to Thailand.

If you are not guilty and did not participate in arms deals, then why the Americans are after you?

What happened in Thailand is a result of an old story. In 1990 I demobbed as a Lieutenant - I never was a Major as journalists like to write, and I didn’t serve in the GRU. I quit the military institute after returning from a service trip, after intensive training in Chinese. I went to work in the United Cooperatives of the USSR, under Tikhonov. I worked in the Air Transport Coordination Centre in those United Cooperatives - that’s how I actually came into aviation. During this one and a half year with the United Cooperatives I went on business trips to Brazil, Mozambique… That was an exciting time.

What kind of business trips?

I was a translator. I accompanied firm’s representatives on firm’s business. In the late 1991 I decided to leave and to start my own business. I decided to become an air shipping broker. By then I already had some connections in the industry. I would take airplanes, for instance, from the Magadan Airlines, and would lease them trough a Belgian firm, for work in Angola. That’s how I started the leasing business which was I was doing successfully till 1996. In 1993 I moved to Sharjah in the UAE where I started an airline which existed until 2001.

And what was the business of those your companies?

Mostly it was charter flights. In 1994 we transported French troops to Africa, when the Rwanda genocide began. We made more than 150 flights from the French base in Istriz to Zaire - from there they would proceed to Rwanda. We also moved the Belgian troops to Somalia and for 1.5 year we provided all transportation for the Belgian military personnel from Somali to Belgium. We also had contracts with Russian companies. We did more than 100 flights under a contract with “Roosvooruzheniye” (Translator: Russian state-owned arms trade company) and with the Angolan government. Also did some shipping from Romania to Angola, for the Angolan government, also flew from Bulgaria.

Did you ship weapons? Were those shipments legal?

Legal, of course. You see, if you arrest every taxi driver who gave a ride to some bad person, there won’t be any taxi drivers left in the streets. I am a shipper. I get an order, I get paid. I send a request, get an approval, instruct my crew, the crew comes in, loads the aircraft, gets the shipping papers, clears customs. All these tales about illegal flights are not supported with anything. I am sorry, everyone in the transport business ships weapons if it is not an illegal cargo, if the papers meet all regulations. Who cares what this hardware really is, if the papers are according to the law? You just do your job. It is very easy to create a lot of noise about weapons, but nobody is willing to really sort things out. They are all crying: “He shipped weapons, he broke sanctions”. What sanctions did I break? Where’s the evidence, facts? Where is the fact that on such and such date, an aircraft owned by Bout, brought such and such cargo illegally? Where are the documents, financial transactions? Till now, nobody has presented any data.

How did your business develop further?

In 1996 we brought 12 MIG jetfighters from Moscow to Malaysia. And I repeat, that was my professional activity as an air shipping broker, I was organizing air shipping. In the same period I started a small firm in Belgium, I had a small office at the airport in Ostende. And, as I already mentioned, I had a small company in the Emirates. My Ostende office consisted of only two persons and I rarely visited it. 1995 I decided to start my own airline, to purchase my own planes - and that was accomplished. That first company was registered in Liberia.

Why Liberia?

Because it’s convenient. Half of the sea ships in the world are registered in Liberia. That my Liberian company existed for only a year, then a civil war started and the then cabinet of ministers left. All the data on that company of mine can be verified. It is nonsense to say that I had 60 airplanes.

How many airplanes did you have?

In good times I had up to 21 aircraft including An-28 and helicopters.

And even after that business closed, were you still doing alright?

At that time a free economic zone was created at the Sharjah airport and Mr Robert Chichakli was appointed manager of that zone. We were good friends with him. We were one of the first customers of that free zone; we started the first enterprise to do maintenance of former Soviet-built equipment. I started repairing my aircraft there and other people’s as well. In 1996, because we had our own technical center, we were able to purchase additional aircraft, and we became second after Lufthansa by cargo turnover at that airport, we even got an award. We also worked for Lufthansa flying between Sharjah and Kathmandu under Lufthansa’s codename. That is to say, we had a perfectly normal business. In 1997 we started expanding, we had many contracts and customers. In 1997 we started an air shipping company in the northern part of South Africa, in Petersburg. There we rented a huge hangar remaining from a former military base. We had customers in Africa, mostly mining companies. There was a major vegetable market in the neighbourhood and we would deliver fresh produce to the mines, - at some stage we reached 200 tonne per day which was profitable. Most of the cargo went to Congo, Zaire, Angola; we regularly provided fresh produce, vegetables, frozen chickens, camel-birds. Naturally, we never limited ourselves with these - and being in Africa, we kept looking for opportunities. In 1997 we started the Central African Airline which within the first six months, for the first time in 30 years, opened regular local air transportation, which allowed the local population to move in a normal way. Roads are very bad there, and where people had to spend a week on travel, now they could do that in two hours. We had An-28, Yak-40, L-410 airplanes there, the company was working well. That company also had a branch in Angola. All these companies, in Belgium, in the Emirates, in Angola, allowed us to fully utilize our fleet.

What other assignments did you have, apart from passenger and food flights?

We had many orders. For instance, we had the lawful government of Afghanistan as our customer - before Taliban. We made many flights for them, mostly shipping fuel from Ashgabat. We had contracts with the Congolese government, shipped goods from Europe for them. They had their own Il-76, we did the maintenance and provided the crew. We had orders from Angola, Luanda governments. We actively worked with the Libyans, we provided airplanes to them, repaired some equipment. We were just an autonomous organization that could provide an aircraft or do maintenance. Or if someone bought an airplane, we could provide a crew. Like, for instance, the Libyans donated an airplane to Burkina Faso - they turned to us and we provided a crew.

What orders, for instance, you had from the Angolan government?

We did charter flights from Pyongyang to Luanda, we did flights from Kurgan (Translator: in Russia) to Luanda, from Poland, from Bucharest, from Burgos (Translator: in Spain) - for the Luanda government. We would sign contracts, they would pay. All flights were under the codename of the Angolan national airline. We did flights for Congo as well, during the elections campaign we shipped vehicles and equipment. We had good contacts with the Congolese leadership, especially with Bemba (Translator: Jean-Pierre Bemba, former VP of the DRC, arrested in 2008). He is a good friend. We spent a lot of time together; I would give him a helicopter and we often flew together. By the way, one day Belgian journalists were flying with us, Bemba invited them to fly with us to a province where Bemba was supposed to make peace between two tribes that were slaughtering each other. His mission went well and the peacemaking procedure took place; he fixed the relationship between the tribes. And the fact that he’s now arrested and is being charged with genocide is making me laugh. This man is a real patriot of his country. He would be the president of Congo by now, but he got his victory stolen in the elections, because he did not get well with the Americans. By the way, there were 3 assassination attempts on him after that. Then he left the country, but they arrested him in Brussels. Anyway, one of those journalists was not feeling well and we took him to a town on the border with Luanda, and then he wrote that he had met Bout, the arms dealer in Congo. He took a picture of me with an airplane on the background and some troops were boarding, but that wasn’t my plane.

What was so criminal in that photo?

Some troops were boarding, but it wasn’t my flight. I don’t even remember what troops and whose plane; didn’t pay attention until I saw that article. After that Bemba called those Belgian guys and asked “why did you write that?” They said, “Why not? It’s that Bout himself!” I rarely talk about this because I had a couple of bad experiences, you say something, but they don’t hear you. Everyone wants to see you as an arms dealer, a merchant of death.

So, you are saying that you were intentionally portrayed as a monster, while in reality you did nothing unlawful?

I was just doing my job. I wasn’t interested what I am shipping and for what. I got orders and processed everything legally. If there are any problems about the items, then why don’t they get those who ordered them and who supplied them? Nobody has any problem with senders and recipients; they are all just pointing at me. We did flights from Europe, from respectable locations. You understand what mechanisms are involved in exports of weapons and special equipment, especially in European countries.

I know very well that big countries help small ones…

Yes.

And that Russia is helping Africa…

No. Currently Russia is not helping Africa.

Ok, not currently. But it seems that the Americans are so interested in you because of your activities in Africa. Don’t you think so? Maybe you possess some important information? Back then, intelligence agencies did not really work in Africa, and you were a rarity, had lots of information.

You know, I worked officially. You could always reach me on the satellite phone, I was available. Yes, we worked very well, we had 12 people in the company, but we worked better than 300-strong company. Yes, we made money; we had a good management team. We were the first. It is always good to come first in the market - then you can set the rules, and I never competed with anyone. I charged a high price, everyone knew that, but we also had many customers. But maybe you’re right, and it was then that I started having problems. I recall that some envoys started approaching me hinting that they would be pleased if I told them what was happening in this and that country. And offered various benefits if I shared information in time. I refused, it was not interesting.

That is, they were interested in particular governments and countries?

Yes, for instance, what’s the cargo on this aircraft? Or who is flying with the president of Congo?

That is, they wanted to recruit you?

Yes, because we were working with the Libyans and, excuse me, with some other countries that were of great interest to the Americans. And after I refused, some falsified UN investigations pop up, some expert Johan Peleman gets appointed. Who is that expert Johan Peleman? A peace institute opens in Antwerp, the centre for diamond trade, and there are only two employees in that institute: that man Peleman and his secretary. And then this gentleman, as an Africa expert, starts an investigation on me. And the fact that he had spent previous five years working as a trader for a Zaire diamond company is not mentioned. Then I realized that the UN had long become a petty sinecure where those in power appoint their cronies. And not necessarily professional ones. And here, a mythical panel of experts got a huge budget approved for itself, spent about 80 million dollars within 3 years, on traveling first class and living in five-star hotels - and not doing their job. They came to Sharjah, but did not meet me, they collected some rumours. It wasn’t a professional investigation. These people didn’t have an operative’s experience, they were neither professional policemen, nor lawyers. They lumped everything they found into one pile. They just could not comprehend how come I was operating in this country, and that country, and some other country. At some point they even wrote that not a single airplane in Central Africa can take off without my approval. Well, that was a complete idiocy.

Still, you must have some explanation for these persecutions. It cannot be explained as just a retribution for non-cooperation.

I already told you about Mr. Richard Chichakli. We’re good friends, he was helping me a lot. He left Sharjah for the US, started his own consulting firm in Dallas, and in 2005 he is arrested, all his property is confiscated, his accounts are closed, two truckloads of paperwork are confiscated from his office - and everyone’s yelling “the finance director of the Bout the-merchant-of-death empire is arrested, two truckloads of evidence are seized!” And at that moment the so-called foreign assets control office of the US Treasury started spreading the word that all the arrested assets of Chichakli were in fact mine, and that he is my proxy. But I never had any assets in the US.

And your US accounts that were closed did not exist either?

I did not have any US accounts! And therefore they could not be closed. And then, then they sell Chichakli’s property that was confiscated without an investigation and a court verdict, and the mythical US Constitution that protect ownership rights swallows that. For 3 years since then Chichakli has been trying to file a lawsuit, but no court accepts it. He is an active member of the Republican Party. He’s got a Bush photograph with his personal signature thanking him for his active support in the campaign. He is a veteran of the US armed forces, has a Purple Heart award. And this person, an American citizen, was simply taken and deprived of everything. It is fortunate that he managed to flee to Russia. So, it is possible that the provocation that they attempted here was their only way to bring me to the US and to prove their case against Chichakli. Because with the change of the US administration, the Chichakli case will be reopened, and it will be a very high-profile case, and I am sure he is going to win it. And that means serious trouble to some group of people. And that group of people did this provocation on me here. What they did with me here is just outrageous. But still doable, as our Prime Minister would say. (Translator: Bout uses a Russian idiom again: “what they did with me doesn’t go through the gate, but as our Prime Minister would say, it can be squeezed”. Bout is apparently refrerring to V. Putin as the Prime Minister). And generally, after Sept 11 the US democracy is turning into a fascist totalitarian regime. After Sept 11 there is a not-to-miss opportunity to scrap all those civil rights and liberties. And all their rhetoric about democracy is only words. I realized that long ago. In 1998 my South African company was closed on instructions from the Americans. They just came to me and said: “We won’t renew your visas; if you want to leave, leave now”. In 2001 they also closed my company in Sharjah; again, just same and said “Your business is closed, you have 24 hrs to leave, or else we will put you in jail”. Nobody cares about documentation, about evidence. The Russians are only coming to realize about the States, after Georgia. If the Americans have set their mind on something, they don’t care about anything. They are repeating the Goebbels method: if you repeat something many times, then everyone will believe.

Your lawyer believes your case is an important precedent hence so much noise about it. Is that why Gosduma (Translator: Russian parliament) is concerned about your plight?

Gosduma is concerned because this is a political case. And a precedent as well. If this works with me, then it happens that any Russian citizen can be extradited by a US request? There are 38 people in the jail cell with me, 6 of them arrested on the US request. The Americans are behaving like: “We don’t have to prove he’s guilty, just give him to us, and we at home will prove he’s guilty”. It’s time for the Thais to realize that if they let themselves being manipulated like that, it’s going to be difficult for them to survive in the today’s world.
Our translator, Sanjuro, shares his own thoughts about the interview:

"I would not expect much different stance from Bout as he is apparently desperate not to be extradited to the US, at least under the current administration, and is also aiming to ignite some (anti-American) feelings in the Kommersant readership. I don't think he was exactly lying on the factual side of his business, rather, not telling the whole truth, but his conspiracy theories did not sound very convincing either. I was more concerned that the Kommersant interviewer seemed somewhat biaised towards Bout and on one occasion even suggested a whole new line of thought to him (the information sharing thing). I usually expect a more professional attitude from the Kommersant people."

You can read some of Sanjuro's most recent commentary concerning the situation in Russia here.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Malaysia not a viable place to invest?

A Malaysian newspaper claims that the country's reputation as a sound place to invest has crumbled in recent months. That's calling the glass half empty. The political fortunes of the country's most magnificent leader in a generation, Anwar Ibrahim, have been on the rise.

The Malaysia Star laments:
It's been six months since the March 8 general election but the perception is that many Malaysians just do not know how to stop politicking, to the point that we are in danger of becoming a political basket case. . . .

The endless, if not mindless, politicking has dented our image abroad as Malaysia is no longer seen as a place for serious investment.
This kind of nay-saying coming out of Malaysia sounds a lot like what you read in the papers of Thailand -- Malaysia's neighbor to the north -- these days. Thais have also exhibited a tendency to see the glass as half empty. Nevertheless, in Thailand, an economically responsive, democratically elected government remains in power. Things are not nearly so bad as they could otherwise be.

In neither the case of Thailand nor Malaysia is the situation anywhere near as dire as some journalists made things out to be. With the economic crisis in the United States as yet unresolved, there are riskier places to invest than either Thailand or Malaysia.

I might add one other point. In Malaysia the mainstream media does not have an enviable record of having defended the values of democracy in the past. Recently, the Thai media has fared no better in this respect. Nevertheless, the underlying momentum in both countries is toward making politicians accountable for how they govern. This may not sit well with entrenched elites -- whether in the media or elsewhere -- but the indications that these nations are progressing are hard to miss if only you look for them.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Malaysia: Anwar landslide good for democracy

In a triumphant culmination to a tumultuous summer, Anwar Ibrahim today regained his parliamentary seat in Permatang Pauh in a landslide electoral victory, winning 31,195 of 47,000 votes. A victorious Anwar called the occasion a 'defining moment' that should serve as a 'major lesson' for the ruling BN. Shortly thereafter, some people were demanding that the hapless Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi should quit.*

In the March 2008 Malaysia general elections, Anwar Ibrahim's three-party alliance won an unprecedented 82 of parliament's 222 seats — 30 short of a majority — and wrested control of five states. But then in early July the government had him arrested on sodomy charges. IHT has a political timeline of the career of Anwar Ibrahim.

I've listened to Anwar speak, and few Southeast Asian politicians come closer to articulating the meaning of democracy. This is a great moment for Malaysia.
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* Malaysiakini. Most of Malaysia's big newspapers are government-controlled, but Malaysiakini is not.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Malaysia: Anwar Ibrahim arrested

Malaysia arrested opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. Once again, he is accused of sodomy. See here and here.

Friday, July 4, 2008

Terror suspects arrested in Indonesia

In Sumatra, Indonesian police arrested nine terror suspects with explosives and bombs set to detonate. Originally they had planned to kill foreigners frequenting a cafe in West Sumatra but apparently changed their target to Jakarta. One of those arrested included Abu Hazam, a Singaporean of Pakistani decent with links to Osama Bin Laden and Malaysian bomb-maker Azahari Husin of terror group Jemaah Islamiah.

The Straights Times noted:

The men all belong to a radical Muslim group known as Forum Anti Kemurtadan or forum against apostasy, which campaigned against Muslims converting to other religions.

Their leader is said to be a 42-year-old headmaster of a pesantren (Islamic boarding school) in Palembang [a large city in south Sumatra], who has military experience in Afghanistan.

Straights Times and UPI

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Malaysia's Anwar Ibrahim: proof sodomy evidence fabricated

Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim came out of hiding Monday, and says he has damaging evidence that proves senior members of the government faked evidence for sodomy charges against him.

"I have new evidence about the fabrication of evidence against me in 1998," Anwar told CNN Monday. "I totally reject these malicious attacks."

Anwar was the heir apparent to former premier Mahathir Mohamad until 1998, when he was sacked and charged for corruption and sodomy. (CNN)

In addition, Malyasiakini reports that Anwar Ibrahim has scheduled a news conference for 15:00 (in 2.5 hours from the time of this posting). The outstanding online newspaper reports that his party plans to hold a public rally in the evening.

The Wikipedia bioography page for Anwar Ibrahim includes an up-to-date timeline of events just preceding this latest news:
  • At 11.03pm on June 29, 2008, online news portal Malaysiakini reported that an aide of Anwar Ibrahim had lodged a police report claiming that he had been sodomised by Anwar. . . . with reports that SMS messages are being distributed claiming that the the person who made the report is Anwar's aide, Saiful Bahari, who was arrested earlier today and allegedly forced to make a false confession. The same SMS message also claimed the possibility of Anwar being arrested later today.
  • Anwar has since denied the allegations claiming that it was a complete fabrication and made in retaliation against him due to his recent acquisition of evidence that implicates the current Inspector General of the Police, Musa Hassan, and the Attorney General, Abdul Gani Patail, in misconduct including fabrication of evidence used against him during the 1998-1999 trials for corruption and sodomy.
  • On Sunday morning, June 30, Anwar moved into the compound of the Turkish Embassy in Kuala Lumpur at the invitation of the Turkish ambassador, however the Turkish Ambassador Barlas Ozener denied this and told Foreign Minister of Malaysia Dr Rais Yatim that Anwar had come on “his own accord for a visit”. Dr Rais added Malaysia was concerned that getting protection or shelter from foreign missions would become a trend for those who violated the country’s law. . . .

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Canberra torch relay

The Sydney Morning Herald reports (hat-tip Jeg*):

Pro-Tibet protesters have reported being heavied by groups of Chinese students who were bussed to Canberra in their thousands to support this morning's Olympic torch relay in Canberra.

. . . . pro-Tibet protester, Marion Vecourcay, said she felt frightened and threatened by the Chinese demonstrators.

Another frightened relay protester? Sounds familiar. See my previous post concerning the relay in Malaysia.

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* Jeg has been blogging the the torch relays on her blog.