Friday, August 29, 2008

Who won the Georgia-Russia war?

The answer might surprise you. Sanjuro, a longtime Russian reader of Jotman, writes in an email:
To me it appears that there was a sole winner that emerged from the current Russia-West spat: China. While west-sponsored Georgia launched a botched takeover operation provoking the Russian incursion, and the West has taken a controversial standing, and the truth in the South Ossetia incident seems to be forever lost, China staged spectacular Games, handled security issues, presented itself as a rather enlightened autocracy etc etc. In the Western eyes, in comparison with Russia, China now seems a much more benevolent regime to deal with, and after all, the West itself seems to losing its credibility as a moral authority.

I read in the FT today that "Russia is warned on threat to Ukraine". Was there a threat? Or to the Baltic states? Or to Moldova or whoever is there? The threat existed largely in the imaginations I believe. Why does West need to have the last word when the battle is over? A totally irrelevant statement at this stage, when the post-war status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is a much greater concern...

We know that there's a dispute over Sevastopol naval base as Ukraine doesn't want to renew lease after 2014, and Russian populist politicians occasionally indulge in igniting nationalistic feelings in the Crimean populace - but no moves or statements were from official Kremlin in the run-up and aftermath of the Caucasian war.

What is supposed to be Kremlin's response to West's "warnings not to threaten"? Obviously, to save their face, Kremlin must do a couple of "threatening moves", causing even greater noise in Ukraine, Georgia and the West.
It looks to me as if various American leaders are straining themselves to paint Russia as the enemy of the West.* The trouble is, it remains only a theory -- one for which evidence is actually in rather short supply. Since when was Georgia an integral part of the West? In fact, Georgia is not a part of any historical conception of the West that does not also include Russia. The point being: except for some rumblings in the Caucasus, the fear mongers cannot really prove their point about Russia. So they talk about what Russia "might" do, and then pontificate.

The West should heed Sanjuro's warning. If its leaders continue down this path, they will likely -- as by the kind of situation Sanjuro describes -- create an enemy where none had previously existed.
*Obama, for example, promised in his speech to the DNC convention to contend with "Russian aggression." McCain takes the prize, of course.
Photo: By AP / Murad Sezer. Zou Shiming of China displays his gold after winning the men's light flyweight 48 kilogram final boxing match at the Beijing 2008 Olympics in Beijing.

1 comment:

  1. Sanjuro, you have a shrewd insight. but you must look deeper into this matter, or on wider scale ! and for that you need to watch US TV programs, like FoxNews etc. - to get at least SOME idea of what's going on in there, what is the mood of American people, and WHY they eagerly swallow the crap which MSM feed them !

    yes, I tend to agree about China being a winner. well, at least in a long run. as Scott Ritter said - China is PATIENTLY planning long in advance, like 100 years since now, when USA will be no more or will not be as it is now.

    however immediate winner(s) are - corporations (for example, see the list provided on SCR on Wiki) and bankers - the REAL OWNERS of US and "West", as George Catlin named them so.
    (watch: George Carlin -
    The Owners of This Country )

    Jotman says - "Leaders of those countries". the whole point is - they are NOT real leaders, neither by the election process (both 2001 and 2004 elections considered rigged or stolen), nor by the mandate invested in them (they only play their role on public! wile "gray cardinals" are ruling behind the curtains)

    those guys, the REAL OWNERS are the real winners, always were and always are and always will be !

    all the Bushes and Blairs, perhaps even Putin - are merely a figureheads. even though Western MSM demonizes Putin and does everything to make their people believe that Putin is something like Stalin, with total absolute power - I doubt it very much. he might be one of the members of the oligarch club, but very unlikely that he is a boss.

    although if he really is the Boss - then it is understandable why Corporate America and all those "Owners" are so eager to confront him and contain him.

    so, to answer Sanjuro about why West makes all these statements.

    it is all related to :

    1) Presidential elections and the "duties" president will have once elected - like keep strong stance towards Putin.

    that in turn relates to

    2)preparations to engage Iran. which according to Ritter again, is inevitable.

    and perhaps in more further remote future - the whole geopolitical game, re-aligning the pieces on the world map.

    US certainly realizes that China is an important player. perhaps by all this Russia-bashing propaganda, they prepare to isolate Russia, and then sweeten China and others. because certainly US can't have Iran, Arabs, Russia, China AND Latin America (don't forget Chavez with his Bolivarian revolution in L. America !) - all of them as potential enemies.

    that is why perhaps they are now trying their best to make closer relations with India, long time Russian Ally !

    so, West will not fight Russia directly. but it will do its best to alienate Russia to everybody and anybody whoever possible. again, not necessarily to fight with Russia - but to change the alignment of players on the "Great chessboard" ! ;)


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