Wednesday, November 17, 2010

The very bad timing of the Victor Bout extradition

The Obama administration has worked hard to improve US-Russian relations.  And its efforts have born fruit with respect not only the signing of the New START treaty in April of this year (which awaits US Senate ratification), but also by having secured Russia's vote at the UN Security Council for a resolution sanctioning Iran.  

Then yesterday the relentless efforts of the US to persuade Thailand to extradite arms dealer Victor Bout-- initiated in 2008 by the Bush Administration--finally paid off.   As they say, you should be careful what you wish for.   The timing of Bout's arrival in the US couldn't be worse.

Reuters reports:
Samuel Charap, a Russia expert at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, said Washington's determination to bring Bout to trial may sow fresh doubts about the United States' commitment to the broader reset policy.

A bigger worry, however, is continued Senate delay on START, which Obama and Medevedev signed in April, committing to cut deployed nuclear warheads by about 30 percent.

"START is the cornerstone, and it is a demonstration to the Russians on whether Obama can deliver, and whether the U.S. is really interested in pursuing shared interests cooperatively," Charap said.

While both Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have urged the Senate to ratify the measure during its "lame duck" session in coming weeks, those hopes were hit hard on Tuesday when a key Republican said that did not leave enough time to debate.
The Reuter's article echoes a point I made in August 2009 when Bout's extradition case was tied up in the Thai courts.   I blogged:
...  surely the last thing the White House needs is a high-profile trial of a semi-retired Russian merchant: a trial sure to create diplomatic trouble with Moscow, complicating Obama's "fresh start" foreign policy agenda...

If the cost was going to be a setback in Russian-US relations, then I would say "getting Bout" was not worth it. Moreover, I think Obama's new approach deserves a fair go and warrants a clean slate.
My point was that the US-Russian relationship is vastly more important than securing justice for Victor Bout.  As Oxfam noted at the time, the illegal arms trade demands a systemic global response.

At this juncture, it's useful to look at US-Russia relations from a Russian perspective:  Although Russia has gone extra mile to cooperate with President Obama, it appears likely that the US Senate will fail to ratify an important treaty.  America is poised to respond to Russia's positive overtures with a blast of indifference.  This outcome could prove a severe blow to the Russian liberal faction led by Dmitry Medvedev.  

Given what's at stake in the relationship, the Obama Administration ought to have backed-off on its push for Bout's extradition.

2 comments:

  1. Dear Jotman,

    Yes, the timing is bad. Yes, the Med faction needs all the support the West can give it. Jailing V.Bout on the surface seems to provide a lot of ammo to the nationalists and the corrupt elements of the government.

    And yes, in the last yer or so Russia did come forward in cooperating with the US on Iran, Afghanistan etc issues and was expecting a payback.

    However, I don't believe letting V.Bout go would send the right signal to the Russian elites - none of the wings. Getting V.Bout back doesn't seem like a huge foreign policy bonus for the librul wing. And encouraging the rightwings is hardly desirable.

    Plus, the Bout story had by now somewhat faded from the media scene - no doubt it will re-emerge, but there have been many other incidents to occupy Russian minds.

    Plus, technically, perhaps Thailand had no choice - if not extradited now, Bout would have to be released around December, as his family has hoped, providing little payoff to anyone.

    The unexpected bonus for some is that according to Alla Bout, the outspoken wife of the M.O.D., Russia has failed to retrieve him, that is a major Russian policy failure, and "now that apparently the US wants needs Viktor more than Russia does, he may be free to do whatever required for survival" - hinting perhaps at cooperation with the investigators, which could make some people in Russia nervious enough. This is from her comments to the Kommersant today: http://kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1540678

    Another bonus is that the US now has an opportunity to show good will at little cost. It would not work as effectively if the US just gave up on trying to retrieve him. Perhaps the release could still be framed in the way beneficial for the Med wing.

    Bottom line: Viktor Bout is still an asset, and an asset to be expended carefully.


    Sanjuro

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  2. Hi Sanjuro,

    His capture seems easy enough for the Russians to dismiss today, but wonder if that will remain the case should the trial turn into a major media spectacle. I see your point that this could have positive effects to the extent it shines light on corruption. You wrote:

    Another bonus is that the US now has an opportunity to show good will at little cost. It would not work as effectively if the US just gave up on trying to retrieve him. Perhaps the release could still be framed in the way beneficial for the Med wing.

    Bottom line: Viktor Bout is still an asset, and an asset to be expended carefully.


    I just don't see this happening. I just can't see the Obama administration cutting that deal. I imagine they would be too afraid of the domestic political fallout of letting him go home, of looking weak. The media has firmly planted the notion that Bout is a "bad guy" in the national psyche. Therefore, I think Obama's Justice Dept. can't risk letting Bout escape American justice at this point. Also, he's a bad guy captured under a Republican president. If this administration has him on US soil but then were to let him go back to Russia, I think the Republicans would use this fact to their political advantage (whether it was fair to do so or not).

    Like what has happened to Obama's promise to close Gitmo: the administration proved itself afraid to look weak, scared to appear soft on terrorism. It looks bad internationally, but the calculus the Obama admin makes, the one that counts for them is domestic. I think domestic politics in the US often makes it hard for politicians to do the smart thing internationally.

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