tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5491095.post7323779668483363754..comments2024-01-09T17:16:02.647+07:00Comments on JOTMAN: The very bad timing of the Victor Bout extraditionJotmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02485510513271661365noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5491095.post-88535439350247827482010-11-18T14:21:24.348+07:002010-11-18T14:21:24.348+07:00Hi Sanjuro,
His capture seems easy enough for the...Hi Sanjuro,<br /><br />His capture seems easy enough for the Russians to dismiss today, but wonder if that will remain the case should the trial turn into a major media spectacle. I see your point that this could have positive effects to the extent it shines light on corruption. You wrote:<br /><br /><i>Another bonus is that the US now has an opportunity to show good will at little cost. It would not work as effectively if the US just gave up on trying to retrieve him. Perhaps the release could still be framed in the way beneficial for the Med wing.<br /><br />Bottom line: Viktor Bout is still an asset, and an asset to be expended carefully.</i><br /><br />I just don't see this happening. I just can't see the Obama administration cutting that deal. I imagine they would be too afraid of the domestic political fallout of letting him go home, of looking weak. The media has firmly planted the notion that Bout is a "bad guy" in the national psyche. Therefore, I think Obama's Justice Dept. can't risk letting Bout escape American justice at this point. Also, he's a bad guy captured under a Republican president. If this administration has him on US soil but then were to let him go back to Russia, I think the Republicans would use this fact to their political advantage (whether it was fair to do so or not). <br /><br />Like what has happened to Obama's promise to close Gitmo: the administration proved itself afraid to look weak, scared to appear soft on terrorism. It looks bad internationally, but the calculus the Obama admin makes, the one that counts for them is domestic. I think domestic politics in the US often makes it hard for politicians to do the smart thing internationally.Jotmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02485510513271661365noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5491095.post-45348604556889431792010-11-17T13:22:57.531+07:002010-11-17T13:22:57.531+07:00Dear Jotman,
Yes, the timing is bad. Yes, the Med...Dear Jotman,<br /><br />Yes, the timing is bad. Yes, the Med faction needs all the support the West can give it. Jailing V.Bout on the surface seems to provide a lot of ammo to the nationalists and the corrupt elements of the government.<br /><br />And yes, in the last yer or so Russia did come forward in cooperating with the US on Iran, Afghanistan etc issues and was expecting a payback. <br /><br />However, I don't believe letting V.Bout go would send the right signal to the Russian elites - none of the wings. Getting V.Bout back doesn't seem like a huge foreign policy bonus for the librul wing. And encouraging the rightwings is hardly desirable.<br /><br />Plus, the Bout story had by now somewhat faded from the media scene - no doubt it will re-emerge, but there have been many other incidents to occupy Russian minds.<br /><br />Plus, technically, perhaps Thailand had no choice - if not extradited now, Bout would have to be released around December, as his family has hoped, providing little payoff to anyone.<br /><br />The unexpected bonus for some is that according to Alla Bout, the outspoken wife of the M.O.D., Russia has failed to retrieve him, that is a major Russian policy failure, and "now that apparently the US wants needs Viktor more than Russia does, he may be free to do whatever required for survival" - hinting perhaps at cooperation with the investigators, which could make some people in Russia nervious enough. This is from her comments to the Kommersant today: http://kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1540678<br /><br />Another bonus is that the US now has an opportunity to show good will at little cost. It would not work as effectively if the US just gave up on trying to retrieve him. Perhaps the release could still be framed in the way beneficial for the Med wing.<br /><br />Bottom line: Viktor Bout is still an asset, and an asset to be expended carefully.<br /><br /><br />SanjuroAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com