Saturday, November 21, 2009

Greenwald: "insider v. outsider" dichotomy

Though hurdles remain, a bill sponsored by libertarian Republican Ron Paul to audit the Federal Reserve Bank passed a House vote today.   Greenwald reflects on the occasion:
Anger over the Wall Street bailouts, the control by the banking industry of Congress, and the impenetrable secrecy with which the Fed conducts itself resonates across the political spectrum, as the truly bipartisan and trans-ideological vote yesterday reflects.  Populist anger over elite-favoring economic policies has long been brewing on both the Right and Left (and in between), but neither political party can capitalize on it because they're both dependent upon and subservient to the same elite interests which benefit from those policies.

For that reason, many of the most consequential political conflicts are shaped far more by an "insider v. outsider" dichotomy than by a "GOP v. Democrat" or "Left v. Right" split.  The pillaging of America's economic security by financial elites, with the eager assistance of the government officials who they own and who serve them, is the prime example of such a conflict.   The political system as a whole -- both parties' leadership -- is owned and controlled by a handful of key industry interests, and anger over the fact is found across the political spectrum.  Yesterday's vote is a very rare example where the true nature of political power was expressed and the petty distractions and artificial fault lines overcome.
Anger at the Wall Street bailout may be the one truly bipartisan issue of the times.   And it's a big issue.  Think about it: on the core issue of the day, most Americans stand in agreement.   To the extent we have trouble recognizing this truth, we need to look to how the "insider-run" mainstream American news media functions

Ivan Khutorskoy, Antifa (Russian anti-nazi) leader murdered

Russian Jotman contributor Sanjuro reports that
A noted member of the Antifa (Russian anti-nazi) movement was found dead last night, Mr. Ivan Khutorskoy.  Mr Khutorskoy was a co-founder of the leftwing RASH faction (Red and Anarchist Skinheads) within the Antifa. He was an athlete, a mixed martial artist, who survived several earlier attacks and assassination attempts, until he was shot dead in his own building. He was a particularly valued member of the small Antifa movement as a capable fighter who helped organize security efforts during anti-nazi gatherings.  There is a short obituary both in Russian and English here.  

It is believed that Khutorskoy's murder could be partially inspired as revenge for the arrest of two neonazists in connection with the murder of lawyer Stanislav Markelov and journalist Anastasia Baburova.
Continued here.

What countries appeared most/least corrupt in 2009?


 Scanning the list from best to worst, here's what strikes me about the rankings of countries in Transparency International's corruption perceptions index for 2009:*
  • The top ten least corrupt are the Nordic countries, plus New Zealand (#1), Canada, and Australia.  (Netherlands isn't exactly Nordic, but it comes in at #6.  Singapore (#3) is perceived as the least corrupt country in all of Asia.
  • The US (home to Delaware) and UK (protector of Jersey) just barely make the top twenty.
  • Three Gulf states are perceived as less corrupt than Israel (#32)
  • The big countries of Eastern Europe  -- Hungary, Czech, Poland (#46-52) -- are believed to be more corrupt than any country in East Asia outside of China.
  • Turkey (#61) and Italy (#63)are perceived as being almost equally corrupt, but Turkey (still considered unfit to join the EU) ranks higher than both Italy and dismally-ranking Greece which is tied with Romania at #71.
  • China (#79) and India (#84) rank similarly on corruption.    India is tied with Thailand.
  • In South America, Chile is #25 (ahead of Spain) but neighboring Argentina is #105.  (As we saw with the English speaking world, the "colonials" seem to be outranking the "mother countries" on this survey).
  • Egypt has the same perceived level of corruption as Indonesia (#111), but the "land of baksheesh" is perceived as being less corrupt than Lebanon (#130) and Syria (#126) and even Vietnam (#120).
  • Pakistan and Philippines are tied at #139.
  • Zimbabwe is tied with Russia at #146.
  • Laos and Cambodia are tied at #158.
  • America is trying to win wars in two of the five most corrupt countries in the world.  (Iraq and Afghanistan's rank prior to America's invasions could not have been any lower.)
___
* ASEAN countries names are in bold. At Jot ASEAN I posted a short list that includes only Southeast Asian countries.

    Friday, November 20, 2009

    Is Europe a good global citizen?

    Europeans tend to think they are better global citizens than the Americans.

    But if you begin from the premise that taking care of the world begins with keeping your own region in order, Europe still has a long way to go.   Although some of these problems don't get a lot of press, Jotman would like to see Europe:
    • Stop jerking Turkey around, while turning a blind eye to the defects of other, less developed countries on the periphery of Europe.
    • Protect its own fisheries, the Mediterranean in particular.
    • Shelter its high-skilled small-scale manufacturers in countries like Italy.  
    • Reduce agricultural subsidies wherever such subsidies have mainly served to protect large-scale but globally uncompetitive agribusinesses.
    • Prevent massively polluting discount airlines from getting a "free ride" in this densely populated region that is easily served by rail.  
    • Stigmatize IKEA, Carrefour, and litigious Tesco - the region's answers to Wal-Mart.
    As following several of the above links reveals, these five points that have been on my mind.  Essentially, I think Europe would be a much better global citizen if it would stand up for the long-term interests of its people.   Looking forward, Europe's greatest contribution to the rest of the world will be for Europe to remain true to its strengths.

      Thursday, November 19, 2009

      Obama in Beijing: Republican or Mandarin?

      I watched enough of Obama's press conference in Beijing to recoil in horror.  President Obama gave the appearance of having arrived in Beijing with no real strategy, no particularly ambitious goals of his own, no particularly inspiring agenda relating to the environment.*   As for the economy, this AP report confirms what I thought I heard on TV (but sincerely hoped I had misheard). 
      BEIJING — President Barack Obama says he's worried that spending too much money to help revive the economy could undermine a fragile U.S. recovery and throw the economy into a double-dip recession.  That's when the economy begins to recover briefly from a recession only to be dragged back under.
      Further spending will increase the deficit somewhat, but would that really cause the recession to worsen?    If stimulus creates new jobs (or spares existing jobs), there will be more taxpayers.  As one economist has put it: more taxpayers means more people paying down the debt.   The article continues:
      Obama told Fox News in an interview Wednesday that his administration is weighing tax breaks that could encourage businesses to begin hiring again.
      Is Obama talking to a Fox News reporter or channeling Fox News?   The problem with proposing "tax breaks" is that your business only pays taxes if it makes a profit.   Struggling small businesses are not helped by tax cuts during a recession.   They need access to capital: banks willing to loan them money.   AP continues:
      But he added that it's important to recognize that if the nation keeps adding to deficit spending through tax cuts or more stimulus spending, at some point people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy and that could "lead to a double-dip recession."
      Who are these "people" of such shaky "confidence"?   Might he be referring to investors?   The Chinese?  I am reminded of what Krugman recently wrote in a NY Times op/ed:
      Unfortunately, the Chinese don’t seem to get it: rather than face up to the need to change their currency policy, they’ve taken to lecturing the United States, telling us to raise interest rates and curb fiscal deficits — that is, to make our unemployment problem even worse. 

      And I’m not sure the Obama administration gets it, either.
      It seems Obama wasn't only telling Fox News viewers what they want to hear, he was also agreeing to do what the Chinese have been telling the Americans to do.  Evidently, Beijing doesn't  care how many more Americans lose their jobs any more than Wall Street.  China just wanted the equivalent of a very deep bow.  And they got it.
      _____
      * Fallows has a made list of various joint initiatives relating to the environment.   He says it remains to be seen "which ones are serious, which ones are for show."

      Will Obama's lost year become American lost decade?

      Krugman blogs:
      Brad DeLong says that the loss of public trust due to the kid-gloves treatment of bankers has raised the probability of another Great Depression, because the public won’t support another round of bailouts even if it becomes desperately necessary. I agree — but I think the bigger cost is that we’ve greatly increased the chance of a Japanese-style lost decade, with I would now give roughly even odds of happening. Why? Because bank-friendly policies have squandered public trust in all government action: try talking to the general public about stimulus, and it’s all confounded in their minds with the deeply unpopular bailouts.
      Joseph of Cannonfire comments, "Future historians may one day recognize Obama's refusal to nationalize the "too big to fail" banks as the greatest mistake ever made by an American president. . . ."  And asks: "So tell me -- in what book is kowtowing to Wall Street considered socialism?"

      Of course, public trust in government has not only being squandered with respect to "bank-friendly policies."

      What if -- as seems increasingly likely -- the Democratic Congress produces a health bill that amounts to a give away to the insurance and pharmaceutical industries, while leaving many Americans uninsured?  Looking to the future, progressives could find themselves identifying with those misinformed right-of-center voters who exhibit a paranoid fear of government.  

      In other words, a bad healthcare bill -- an industry give-away -- would prove the loony right wing tea-baggers were not altogether wrong to have feared Obama:  Except that it wasn’t Obama’s “socialism” that they needed to fear, but his “corporate socialism” or corporatism.  This distinction, while crucial, seems to be lost on the population at large.

      A confluence of developments suggest how Obama's lost year could become America's lost decade.  

      Sarah Palin autobiography "silences" Andrew Sullivan

      Jotman was one of the first bloggers to seriously consider the possibility of Palin being picked as a VP candidate.   Back in August 2008, when Sarah was still an obscure state governor, I wrote:
      I don't think this is going to fly, but here is the case for the Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, to serve as McCain's VP choice. . . . The problem, of course, is that Palin appears to have had no foreign policy experience whatsoever.
      JOTMAN.COM would later become home to the world's most comprehensive timeline of Sarah Palin scandals, the color-coded Palin Scandal Timeline.

      Other bloggers have also been relentless in holding Palin accountable -- Andrew Sullivan being the most widely read of these.   Today Sullivan announced that he has decided to stop blogging while he and his small team take the time to comb through Palin's recently published bio, Going Rogue.   Sullivan maintains that Sarah Palin is a "delusional fantasist."  He blogs:
      There are so many fabrications and delusions in the book, mixed in with facts, that just making sense of it - and comparing it with objective reality as we know it, and the subjective reality she has previously provided - is a bewildering task. She is a deeply disturbed person which makes this work of fiction and fact all the more challenging to read. . . .
      There is a possibility here of such a huge scandal that we would be crazy not to take our time either to debunk it or move it forward for further examination.
      I commend Sullivan for his work debunking Sarah Palin.

      Taking on Sarah Palin has at times been a thankless job.  Many of my own readers have questioned why Palin matters. ("She's an idiot. End of story.")  But it's not really about her.  It's about the fact that it has been left to  bloggers and blog-readers -- going back to the announcement of Palin as McCain's pick -- to do hard work that the mainstream journalists ought to have done.    In other words, asking questions, digging, piecing together all the scandals.

      What is the deeper significance of the various Palin scandals?  It is that the mainstream American news media has, by and large, all throughout the election campaign and beyond, conveyed Sarah Palin's entirely fanciful interpretations of reality as if her views were potentially valid, plausible, and reasonable:  "On one hand Palin says X, on the other hand, her critics say Y."  That's what passes for balanced reporting in the United States today.  The American public is left none the wiser.

      The exposure of the ineffectiveness of the mainstream news media's approach to the candidacy of  Sarah Palin reveals the real Palin scandal.

      UPDATE:  More over Augustine.   A prime example of how the US media has made it possible for Sarah Palin to present herself as a "serious person" is a US News and World Report blog post, "Sarah Palin's Going Rogue as Christian literature."  Typical of many mainstream media reports about Palin, this summary of Palin's religious outlook might well have been written by Palin herself.

      William Browder's attorney, Sergey Magnitsky, found dead in Russian jail

      Russia might be in worse shape than we thought.

      William Browder, owner of Hermitage Capital, wrote an op/ed in the FT critical of Russia's government.    His lawyer, Magnitsky, was just found dead in a Russian jail.   Here's a quote from the article:
      My own case is illustrative of the breakdown of the state in Russia. From 1996 until 2005, I was the largest portfolio investor in the country, with $4bn invested. In November 2005, the government suddenly took my visa away and declared me a “threat to national security”, I believe because I was outspoken about corruption at state-owned companies. This was followed by a cascade of malfeasance so extreme it would make a hardened criminal blush – which I believe was orchestrated by the authorities.

      First, the Russian police raided our offices and took all our corporate documents . . .  The criminals used these fake losses to claim a fraudulent refund of $230m of taxes we had paid in 2006, which was paid out to them in just two days. This despite us reporting the unfolding fraud to Russia’s top law enforcement officials 21 days before the tax money was stolen.

      Foreign investors get ripped off all the time in many countries. What makes this story unique is the state officials working together to steal $230m from the Russian state itself.  The sharks have started to feed on their own blood.

      What makes it even more worrying is that the Russian government took no action to recover the money when we reported the crime. Rather than going after the rogue officials and criminals, the government turned the full weight of the law enforcement apparatus against us for reporting it. They arrested our lawyer, Sergey Magnitsky, who uncovered the tax rebate fraud. He has since been kept in pre-trial detention on cases I believe were fabricated.
      How and why did Sergey Magnitsky die?   Russian JOTMAN.COM contributor Sanjuro looks into the matter.

      Wednesday, November 18, 2009

      Airline travel: Will carbon offsets make a difference?

      The NY Times presents a sobering observation:
      A recent study in Britain concluded that one flight from London to Los Angeles produced more carbon dioxide per person than the average British commuter produces in a year by traveling by train, subway or car.
      The article goes on to explain how the theory behind carbon offsets seems to be flawed.
      In theory, the purchase of carbon offsets is supposed to cancel out the emissions generated by activities like flying or heating office buildings by directing money to programs that reduce emissions elsewhere, like tree-planting in Africa or a hydropower project in Brazil. An airline passenger might volunteer to pay $5 to $40 to offset his flight, with the price linked to distance.

      Offsets have played a growing role in the greening of travel because carbon dioxide emissions from airplanes are growing so quickly and there is currently no technological fix that would drastically lower them.
      Of course, there is an an obvious fix, an economic fix.  Simply tax the emissions.  Make it more expensive to fly.  Pollution ought to be priced into the cost of transportation (and everything else we buy).

      The article illustrates how difficult it has been for companies to find effective carbon offsets:
      EasyJet, which was founded in 1995 but has vastly expanded its fleet since 2003, also uses only the newest and most fuel-efficient jets, flies full planes and packs in extra rows of seats, making its estimated emissions per passenger 28 percent lower than more established carriers on the same routes. Some airlines are experimenting with innovations that may someday reduce emissions, like using fuels made with algae rather than crude oil.
      Of course, Easy Jet is flying more people who might otherwise not be flying at all.

      Usually a false choice is fed to the traveling public by a corporate media dependent on the airlines for advertising revenue.  You've heard it before:  the myth that the alternative to low cost air travel is to "stay home."  It's simply not true.  Or it need not be the alternative.

      A quick glance at Easy Jet's route map reveals that most -- if not all -- of its destinations are accessible by rail (or could be).   There is something outrageous about the fact that so many Europeans elect to fly to various places that are almost equally accessible by train.   Of course, they have an overwhelming financial incentive to make this choice because it is usually cheaper to fly.  If Easy Jet tickets did not cost so little, many more people would elect to travel by train (which causes fewer greenhouse emissions).

      Chinese and Indian entrepreneurs are busy applying this unsustainable business model to their own countries.  Coincidentally, just like Europe, both regions already have extensive rail networks. 

      I think it is ridiculous to imagine that airborne altruists are going to make much of a difference to the climate change problem.  I think it is wrong that airlines don't have to include the true cost of pollution in the price of the ticket, giving airlines an an unethical competitive advantage over passenger rail.

      Ecologically misaligned market incentives have squeezed people quite needlessly!

      Sunday, November 15, 2009

      President Obama's bow to Akihito, Emperor of Japan

      2 UPDATES


      As you can see from the photo, President Obama's bow to the Emperor Akihito was deeper than that of Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama.  

      Of course, in Japan the more subservient the person, the more deeply she (it tends to be a she) must bow to the more powerful person.  As this video about Japanese bowing indicates, Obama did the "waiter bow".

      Obama's bow ought to earn him points for cultural sensitivity.   But he loses points for having overdone the gesture.   Moreover, perhaps Obama should lose points for having done anything more than nod his head to the emperor.   I had thought the protocol of Americans bowing to royalty ended with a certain revolution.  

      On the bright side, at least he didn't throw up.

      UPDATE 1:  Two further reflections.

      First, concerning etiquette, from having lived in Japan, I came to understand that it is not considered good form to combine a bow with a handshake, as Obama is doing.   The emperor graciously extended his hand, a bow was not called for.   Moreover, after I came to appreciate the range of meanings attached to a bow, I  found it preferable always simply to shake hands.   The bottom line for me was that a Japanese bow carried implications that are not easily reconcilable with egalitarian values -- which brings me to my next point.

      Second,  I would argue that America's great challenge is not to exhibit humility (as many claim), but to remain true to its founding principles.   America was founded on the premise that all human beings are created equal.  The notion of a hereditary monarchy stands in conflict with this principle.  An American president honors his country's values and sets an example for the world by bowing  to no man.  Such symbolism is important to many people.  For example, even today, a Thai can be sent to jail for years simply for not standing before the image of a hereditary head of state.    Traveling abroad, the president of the world's most powerful republic should stand tall for the alternative moral order his country represents.  Even those who don't happen to support certain American values -- i.e. Japanese monarchists -- can respect a country that is true to its principles.   A lot of anti-Americanism these days probably has far less to do with any perceived lack of humility than profound disenchantment with a government that fails to live up to the expectations the country sets for itself.

      UPDATE 2:  "It's just a sign of respect.  Therefore, Obama's sloppy bow was of no consequence." 

      Does the Japanese bow "simply" convey respect for the other as an individual?  I beg to differ.  Few forms of greeting are less simple than a Japanese bow.

      A Japanese bow reflects social status.     A bow is one of various of daily life performances -- polite language (keigo) being another -- by which Japanese pay respect to their respective relational identities within the social hierarchy.    The enactment of these rituals throughout daily life reinforces the hierarchy.  It's an  exhibition of power relations.

      Obama's bow was both incorrect and inappropriate in view of his social stature.  As head of state, Pres. Obama is Emperor Akihito's equal, but his bow did not reflect their equal status.   (As leader of the world's most powerful country, Obama could just as easily be considered emperor's superior from the super-hierarchical Japanese perspective.)

      The bottom line is that the "forms" of social interaction tend to matter to Japanese people -- that's why they go to so much trouble with them!  They should also matter to Obama's advisers and US embassies, whether in Tokyo, Beijing, or Kabul.   That's respect.   It's not being culturally-sensitive to prove your world-leading country can't summon a competent coach for its president.   Either take the trouble to get it right, or don't bother.

      Better a handshake next time.

      Saturday, November 14, 2009

      Four more Russian police speak out against corruption

      Russian Jotman contributor Sanjuro brings us an update on the Dymovsky Affair, which has been developing since Sanjuro's last briefing.   Sanjuro writes, "Although Dymovsky himself was fired "for libel" by his regional police authorities, several more policemen from other regions came out with revelations [about corruption]."  

      You can read Sanjuro's concise summary of the police officers' allegations here and view their videos -- collected in one place -- here.  The videos are in Russian, but seeing them all together on one web page gives you the strong impression that something important is happening.   After examining the evidence, Sanjuro makes an intriguing observation: "I do not exclude the possibility that at least the initial impulse of this movement could be engineered within a liberal wing in Medvedev's surrounding as a (belated) attempt to improve the public image of the police (which is frankly, beyond repair)."

      This spectacle certainly caught me off guard.    I was not aware that Russia had much of a whistle-blowing tradition.  So I put this question to Sanjuro:  Why have so many officers have come forward, risking their careers.  Surely they were put up to it?  

      Sanjuro replied:
      No, Russia doesn't have much of a whistleblowing tradition. It is extremely rare and hence deserves respect even if there's some degree of support from the superiors. On the other hand, just four people in the entire country is not enough.

      I would believe these people were identified earlier by some senior officers from the SK (Sledstvenny Komitet) of the Prosecutor General's office that is independent (at least officially) from the MVD, they were advised that if they came out exposing corruption at the local branches, they would be given some justice and protection. There were several PR disasters lately, with the Russian police, most notably the Maj. Yevsyukov incident (a drunken policeman shot several people in a grocery store), several road accidents where policemen escaped justice, extrajudicial killings etc etc. Plus regular reports of police brutality, incl those during the dissident gathrings. It was also reported recently that the Russian riot police tested their new fancy toys on a mock demonstration of "senior citizens" - which was later denied.

      If it's Kremlin-engineered, it is a smart move, and a chance for Medvedev to earn some real political capital, not inherited from Putin. The public outcry in April was such that the head of the Moscow police Gen. Pronin had to be removed as a result of the Yevsyukov affair - I guess it was then that somebody in Medvedev's circle realized that something has to be done urgently about the police. Whatever the origins, this could have real consequences, as more people both within the police and outside will be urged to speak out.

      In Malaysia online news media leads

      Malaysia's print newspapers are notoriously selective in their coverage of the country's domestic politics.  Malaysiakini, now one of the country's top twenty websites, represented Malaysia's first genuine news alternative.   In fact, the website is a model of online media excellence for Asia and the developing world.

      The question might be asked:  Why is there no Singaporekini?    Zhi Yuan and Lim Siow Kuan of Malaysiakini attempt to answer this question.    The writers note that the equivallent of Malaysiakini's readership of 100,000 would yield only 17,390 readers a day in Singapore.  Surely such a figure ought to achievable.  Yet an equivellent publication has not been attempted in Singapore.   Yuan and Kuan note that Singapore's media is highly controlled, its class of professional journalists and editors having been made comfortable.   They speculate that Singaporeans may simply have been rendered more brainwashed than Malaysians:
      Singaporeans, especially those born after independence, have grown up knowing only the pro-government state press which explains why they are seldom able to distinguish between truths and spins inherent in the reports unlike an astute reader from a developed country like United States or United Kingdom. 

       ... Malaysians who have long been skeptical of the mainstream media's coverage of political affairs take an instant liking to Malaysiakini's independent streak almost immediately, facilitating its eventual ascension to the pinnacle of Malaysian journalism.
      I'm not convinced educated Americans these days are that much better at distinguishing spin from fiction than educated Singaporeans.  And I would venture to speculate that concerning foreign affairs, Singaporeans are much better informed.   The Straights Times may not offer great local coverage, but in my opinion the paper is superior to all but two or three American newspapers when it comes to providing comprehensive coverage of international issues.

      Does Singapore does lack a sufficient number of consumers desperate for critical reporting of local politics for a paper like Malaysiakini to succeed in the city state?  Perhaps.   Nevertheless, a number of good Singapore blogs exists, some of which I link to on the sidebar of JotAsean

      Friday, November 13, 2009

      Trial for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, but not others

      Greenwald on Attorney General's Eric Holder's anticipated announcement that the case against alleged 9/11 mastermind KSM will be tried before a jury in New York:
      ... we're now formally creating a multi-tiered justice system for accused Muslim terrorists where they only get the level of due process consistent with the State's certainty that it will win. Mohammed gets a real trial because he confessed and we're thus certain we can win in court; since we're less certain about al-Nashiri, he'll be denied a trial and will only get a military commission; others will be denied any process entirely and imprisoned indefinitely. The outcome is pre-determined and the process then shaped to assure it ahead of time, thus perfectly adhering to this exchange from Chapter 12 of Alice in Wonderland:
      "Let the jury consider their verdict," the King said, for about the twentieth time that day.

      "No, no!” said the Queen. "Sentence first -- verdict afterward."

      "Stuff and nonsense!" said Alice loudly. "The idea of having the sentence first!"

      Iraq back to being a dictatorship

      Long term, who stands to benefit the most from the US invasion of Iraq:  American oil companies?  Saudi Arabia?  Israel?  

      Probably none of the above.

      In September the The Economist reported, "The Shia-led government has overseen a ballooning of the country’s security apparatus. Human-rights violations are becoming more common. In private many Iraqis, especially educated ones, are asking if their country may go back to being a police state."

      Same as before, under Saddam?  Not quite.  As one Iranian exile pointed out to me, this new "made in America" Iraqi dictatorship appears to be aligned with Iran.   

      The Iranian exile explained that Maliki has close ties with Iran, and the Iranian spies have infiltrated the highest ranks of  the government of Iraq.  

      "The Iraqis are imprisoning and torturing Iranian opposition members who have fled Iran," the Iranian told me.

      I asked how it was that the Americans had allowed this to happen.

      "They [the US government] don't seem to know who some lobbyists represent."

      Thursday, November 12, 2009

      Nouriel Roubini warns of dollar bubble

      The worst may be yet to come.

      Investors are shorting a falling US dollar to fund speculation in risky assets observes Nouriel Roubini in the FT. Around the world and across the board, the price of risky assets -- equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments --  is rising on the account of investors' ability to profitably leverage bets against the US dollar.  

      But the dollar cannot continue falling forever, and its tradictional function as a safe-haven suggests that it could rise suddenly if an international crisis develops. Roubini warns, " . . . one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever. . . .  A stampede will occur as closing long leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated collapse of all those risky assets.

      Roubini expounded further on the "comming commodoties correction" in a recent interview.

      Azerbaijan jails bloggers for donkey video

      CNN reports that Azerbaijan has jailed two bloggers, Adnan Hadjizadeh and Emin Milli.  The bloggers have been sentenced for two years and two and a half years, respectively.

      Shortly before they were attacked in a restaurant and subsequently arrested, the bloggers had satirized Azerbaijan's government in a popular YouTube video about a donkey.

      Here's the "donky video" with English subtitles:

      Tuesday, November 10, 2009

      Dymovsky urges Putin to stop rampant police corruption

       Russian Jotman contributor Sanjuro writes:
      Maj. Dymovsky was a police officer in Novorossiysk, he recently retired from the police force and posted video clips on his website [which is no longer online]  addressed to PM Putin /Pres Medvedev exposing years of corruption in the city's police.

      As of now, he was on his way to Moscow to give a press conference at the Independent Press Centre, but was reportedly detained while en route to the Rostov-on-Don airport.

      I read comments and most readers support the ex-policeman. Some see this is the first crack in the law enforcement system, but most simply express their support for Maj. Dymovsky. It is widely held that the situation is similar in other Russian cities, it's just that they are still waiting for a whistleblower.
      Concerning Sanjuro's last point, see this Jotman post.   Here's a report on Dymovsky's videos from Russia Today:



      Update: More here.

      Saturday, November 7, 2009

      Such a big victory, such small ideas

      Paul Krugman writes today "...the truth is that Mr. Obama put his agenda at risk by doing too little. The fateful decision, early this year, to go for economic half-measures may haunt Democrats for years to come."  Krugman's op-ed is deeply troubling, and well worth reading.

      The one Obama victory that cannot be taken away

      Many of us seriously question whether Obama will ever herald the depth of change his victory seemed to promise.   Yet one change brought about by the new presidency will surely stand the test of time.  It is unlikely that any future historian will contest that Nov. 6 2009 had a profound and lasting impact on the psyche of just about every African American.   This singers in this video will always bring tears to my eyes:

      The exhilaration of the Obama victory

      Live from the White House one year ago this week, JOTMAN.COM captured the shouts, cries, songs, and cheers of thousands of deliriously happy people.   Spontaneously, from across the nation's capital, Americans  had gathered to celebrate:



      What a difference a year makes.

      Friday, November 6, 2009

      Released Guantánamo inmates tell their stories

      "The men in this video were held at Guantánamo for years without charge and denied any meaningful opportunity to challenge the legality of their detention. But now they are finally free. This is their story."

      Smoking causes socialism

      I witnessed a sizable protest on Capitol Hill today.  It was attended by thousands of white people opposed to affordable health care. I heard that three protesters were arrested. The NY Times has a front page story about the event.

      I took a couple of photos:



      Does't this woman know that smoking cause socialism? 



      This guy probably doesn't support the climate change bill either.   A sign in the back window of the truck reads, "Obama is half white, half foreign and all wrong for America."

      Thursday, November 5, 2009

      A perestroika for Burma?


      Senior US State Department official Kurt Campbell is presently on a diplomatic mission to Burma.  In Rangoon Campbell met with Aung San Suu Kyi.  This initiative follows Jim Webb's rescue mission Burma in July.   A WSJ article (h/t New Mandala) by Bertil Lintner, a Swedish journalist well-acquainted with Burma, explores why previous diplomatic liaisons have failed.  His article concludes:
      "...There are no Young Turks lurking in the wings.

      Still, Burma's only hope for the future is that some officers, young or old, will change their minds. Until that happens, nothing is likely to change. And emissaries sent by the U.S. or any other Western power are likely to end up being as frustrated as Mr. Richardson was 14 years ago."
      There appears to be much agreement that a successful reformers in Myanmar will most likely have to  emerge from within the ranks of the military.   As one disident told me in 2007:
      There are three military groups: army, navy and air force. Some army officers, some navy officers, some air force officers, don’t want to accept the ideas of the General Than Shwe.

      But we secretly join them, from the riflemen to the general. Whoever we can contact....
      How do you bring senior Myanmar military officers to your side?   That is the question.

      Thant Myint-U  told a US Senate committee hearing that it is not easy have any influence on the officers when your country's policy is not to interact with them. Conversely, he said that increased contacts could open receptive officers and technocrats to change.

      One advantage, of course, to pursuing more contacts with the regime is that this process may be advanced in the light of day.   No need to pursue dangerous secret liaisons if ordinary contacts could occur on an open,  regular basis.

      In this regard, I believe it is important to consider the extent to which the foreign exposure of high-ranking Soviets such Gorbachev and Aleksandr Yakovlev laid the foundation for perestroika.
      ___
      Photo: by Jotman shows Kurt Campbell escaping a Senate hearing.

      Wednesday, November 4, 2009

      Myanmar-China pipeline

      The WSJ reports that China will soon begin construction on the Shwe Project -- a pipeline that will carry natural gas from Kumming to the new port of Kyaukphyu in Myanmar via Mandalay. The purpose is to carry natural gas from the rich gas fields off Myanmar's coast.    One interesting fact:  The junta will obtain $1 billion a year in revenue for thirty years from the pipeline.  This new source of revenue is likely to further diminish the effect of Western sanctions on the regime.

      All this raises an important question:  In the future, where will the junta be able to put its money?