Beijing Olympics as shock therapy for the environment

Wanting China (and indeed the planet) to win the fight against pollution, one might hope for a demonstration on the world stage that would graphically highlight cost of today's development-at-all-costs global economic agenda. I'm talking about a kind of shock therapy. But when and where might such an occasion arise?

Within a fortnight in Beijing. Those of us who would be content to spotlight catastrophe then and there by no means harbor anti-China sentiments. Rather, we may fear for the long term health of the Chinese people and their environment more than we worry about the success of any Olympics.

But is this outlook naive? James Fallows has provided firsthand observations about the air quality tends in Beijing throughout the past twelve months. More recently the journalist has posted an ominous new report (quoted in this post, since echoed in various news media). Fallows firmly believes that any spectacle of failure is most unlikely to prove positively instructive to the Chinese. Far from it. Fallows blogs from Beijing:

I know that some people outside China have a kind of schadenfreude wish that the pollution, or the mishandling of protests, or the logistics, or something else will backfire on the organizers of the Olympics and stand as a protest for whatever is objectionable in government policy. This is related to the previous idea that it would make sense to boycott the opening ceremonies or the Games themselves.

Unt-uh. As my correspondent points out, the only thing that will happen if these Olympics somehow go bad is a concerted focusing of blame, inside China, on the foreigners who want to "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people" and hold China down. Outsiders who think that a pollution emergency or a spiraling protest would focus domestic blame on the Chinese government are dreaming. No kidding, everyone should want these games to work well, including with the air.

Supposing Fallow's characterization of the situation is correct, there may yet be a bright silver lining here. Even if Beijing proves itself too proud to take international criticism in stride, and, as Fallows anticipates, the state encourages the Chinese people to blame foreigners for a tainted Olympics, any environmental lesson to be taken from the Games of the XXIX Olympiad is not likely to be lost on the other five billion people on the planet. The rest of the world might decide to take to heart any environmental lessons to be gleaned from the spectacle of China's pollution-wrought Olympic misfortunes.

As Matt Steinglas points out,* it probably doesn't make much difference what we wish for. Nevertheless, I think the world is in need of a "wake up call" to the devastating effects of pollution on human health and performance. And if fate should have it that the Beijing Olympics are to provide such a demonstration, might it not be a jolt we all needed?

The Beijing Games need not be a mere vanishing blip on history's Doppler Radar. Perhaps the event could make a positive difference.
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* h/t Patrick Appel

Beijing Olympics air quality still in doubt

Fallows blogs:

The air is much worse today, July 24 China time, with fifteen days to go until the opening ceremonies, than it has been in the last two weeks or so, even after the Big Shutdown of factories and traffic that began five days ago.

What does it say about the IOC that its chosen city for 2008 can do no better than to "cover up" a problem of such magnitude -- temporarily sanitizing itself -- for the sake of hosting a single athletic competition? Millions of Chinese children deserve better than to grow up in such a polluted city as Beijing has become. How many of today's would-be Chinese Olympians have their dreams cut short by asthma, cancer, or other byproducts of China's reckless growth?

Television pictures of gagging and gasping Olympians might be disquieting to viewers -- not to mention dangerous for the athletes themselves -- but such a spectacle might just prod China to finally make improved air quality a national priority. If the Olympic Games fail for environmental reasons, not only China but governments around the world might resolve to make the cities of tomorrow safe for outdoor physical activity. What a testimony to the Olympic spirit! By failing, these Games might succeed like none other before.

Continued here.

Barack Obama Berlin speech

Two hundred thousand Germans turned out today to watch Obama deliver the first ever "global citizenship speech" by an American presidential candidate:

Thank you to the citizens of Berlin and to the people of Germany. . . .

I come to Berlin as so many of my countrymen have come before. Tonight, I speak to you not as a candidate for President, but as a citizen - a proud citizen of the United States, and a fellow citizen of the world.

The NY Times reports that "He drew warm applause in declaring that the world should be free of nuclear weapons, the war in Iraq should be over, the world should commit to fight global warming, reject torture and welcome immigrants." Ben Smith at Politico writes, "there's a touch of tough love -- Obama stresses the need for more European support in Afghanistan. . . " An American in Berlin blogged "It sure was a substantial speech if he comes through on everything he promised. . . ."

You can read the whole speech here. Judging by Obama's reception in foreign capitals, my earlier speculation concerning the potential impact Obama's world tour was probably no stretch (this post).

Photo: by Jotman. Flag flies above the German Reichstag.

Outsourcing innovation

The NY Times reports that some companies outsource problem-solving on the Internet:

Dwayne Spradlin, president and chief executive of InnoCentive, said in an interview that the company had solved 250 challenges, for prizes typically in the $10,000 to $25,000 range. According to the Web site (http://www.innocentive.com/), the achievements include a compound for skin tanning, a method of preventing snack chip breakage and a mini-extruder in brick-making.

Apparently, the website is gaining traction among non-profit groups eager to solve global problems.

Solution outsourcing goes back to "the work of John Harrison, the 18th-century clockmaker who, in response to a prize offered by the British Parliament, solved the problem of determining longitude at sea by inventing a clock that would keep good time even in heavy weather." In a variation of the approach, Senator John McCain "has proposed that the government offer $300 million to whoever invents a battery compact enough, powerful enough and cheap enough to replace fossil fuels."

Of course, more often than not the real challenge is identifying the right problem to solve in the first place.

Investors factor Thai politics into Thailand's economic outlook

WSJ reports:

Stocks in Thailand are among the cheapest in Asia on a price-to-earnings basis, and the country's economy is shaping up to be the only one in the region to grow faster this year than it did in 2007.

J.P. Morgan said in a research report this month that while stock prices hadn't necessarily fallen to distressed levels -- the main Stock Exchange of Thailand Index is down 23% this year -- they have slipped into "value territory."

The WSJ notes that some analysts today favor energy plays such as PTT Exploration & Production, or they are looking at telecom sector firms such as Advanced Info Service. So why the reluctance to invest in Thailand? As Jotman readers can well imagine, the main factor keeping stock valuations low is political instability:

HSBC Global Research this month said the political risks were so great it had reversed its view on Thailand, now recommending investors be "underweight" in that market instead of "overweight."

It's not as if the economy is being poorly managed under PM Samak:

Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej announced last week a $1.4 billion package of tax cuts and other measures to take the sting out of rising fuel prices and keep domestic consumption up. Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee expressed confidence that Thailand's inflation rate will stay within its forecast range of 6% to 7% this year.

Bangkok Pundit has looked into the details and politics of the recent stimulus package. The prime minister's recent energy deal with Russia is another sign that the Samak government -- still guided by the businessman and former Prime Minister Thaksin -- is engaged with the economic realities of the times.

Cambodian election of 2008

As noted in previous posts, the upcoming Cambodian election on July 27 is one factor that has influenced -- negatively -- the rapidly escalating border dispute with Thailand. It's to be the first Cambodian election in which monks can vote. Cambodia is a young country; the youth vote is expected to be crucial. IHT reports on the likely outcome of the election:

Hun Sen's long-running control over the levers of state and his unmatchable political instincts all but ensure that he will lead a return of his party to office, with even his few serious rivals unlikely to mount a strong challenge.

Hun Sen, once a member of the ultra-leftist Khmer Rouge, has been at the helm of Cambodia since 1985, when he was made prime minister of a Communist government installed by neighboring Vietnam. He became an elected prime minister in a democratic vote only after his party won a 1998 election. His party has tightened its grip on power since then, with 73 seats in the National Assembly.

This website outlines the electoral system in Cambodia, and lists the contending parties.

Photo: By Jotman. Shows a Cambodian monk.

What caused the Thai-Cambodian temple row?

An IHT article nails the main cause of the unseemly border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia:

Analysts say that domestic politics in Thailand, where the temple is known as Khao Pra Viharn, have played a big role in fueling the border dispute.

Preah Vihear's listing as a World Heritage Site this month incited political uproar in Bangkok, where the opposition People's Alliance for Democracy accused the government of selling out Thailand's history by initially backing the listing. The alliance, a coalition of activists and royalists, is waging a street campaign against Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, whom they accuse of acting as a proxy for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a coup in 2006.

The other factor? The election in Cambodia. Incidently, it will be the first Cambodian election in which monks will be allowed to vote.

Thailand and Cambodia agree not to fight

The Nation reports that Monday the two countries agreed not to use force, but they failed to agreed to a withdraw of troops from the vicinity of the Khmer temple.

The last point is disconcerting. Tensions have been running high -- there were several close calls in recent days when fighting nearly broke out. Why not a full troop withdrawal?

The new Burma activists

The Washington Post reports on "a new generation" of activits in Burma:

Monks remain politically active, too, in spite of increased harassment from security forces since the protests.

Some have hidden pamphlets inside their alms bowls to distribute when they go out to collect food in the mornings, according to a Mandalay monk. They have smuggled glue and posters inside the bowls to stick on street walls.

Ten years ago, the monk said, he started a library that has since expanded to 14 branches across the country. Under cover of membership, patrons take classes in public speaking and pass around poems and pamphlets that are often scathing about their rulers, he said.

"I told people to read lots of books, so they can start to know, and then they can change the system," he said. "Because we want freedom. Because it is difficult to speak and write in this country."

The cyclone's aftermath has also spurred vast new stores of anger, sometimes among monks, who take vows of nonviolence.

"Now we want to get weapons," said a monk known to other dissidents by the nom de guerre "Zero" for his ability to organize and vanish without a trace. "The Buddhist way is lovingkindness. But we lost. So now we want to fight."

In the dormitory of a monastery one recent afternoon, he sat among piles of handwritten speeches and recent clandestine pamphlets stamped with names of groups such as Generation Wave and the All Burmese Monks Alliance. Two young monks listening from a tattered mattress nearby nodded excitedly, and a third pretended to wield a machine gun.

Because of his role as a chief galvanizer of the monks in the protests, the monk has been on the run since September, moving from one monastery to the next. But since the cyclone, he has managed nonetheless to make about 20 trips to the devastated areas, where he buried more than 200 bodies and coordinated with monks and lay people.

"In September, we lost because everywhere, every village did not follow, because of fear," he said. But in the post-cyclone period, "we can do more. Now I can grow and grow."

At a 1,500-strong ceremony commemorating the victims of the cyclone, 15 dissident monks and lay people pondered their options, he said. Should they organize a strike in September to mark the first anniversary of the protests? Hold one to coincide with the auspicious date of 8-8-08, twenty years since the 1988 uprising?

See my interviews with the Burma student's army leader, Myint Oo, and a break-away revolutionary leader named Maung.

Thongchai Winichakul on Preah Vihear crisis

On June 30, The Nation* published a commentary by U Wisconsin historian Thongchai Winichakul concerning Preah Vihear temple at the center of the Thai-Cambodian border dispute. Since the publication of this piece, the situation has deteriorated.

The nature of modern boundaries between Thailand and its neighbours is like a time bomb.

All boundaries today bear the legacies of old world politics that did not much care if a demarcation by a sharp line, or the unambiguous territorial sovereignty, carried repercussions.

With little exception, claims to exclusive "ownership" rights of borderlands longer than the past 100 to 130 years are probably false and historically impossible to support.

Given the explosive foundation of the modern boundary, maps, treaties and courts have provided settlements of such areas. They are the ground rules used by modern nations to co-exist.

For the boundary around Preah Vihear, the International Court of Justice in 1962 provided a settlement without which military might and heavy loss of lives would have been the only other option.

We should respect the settlement provided by the court since Thailand has no better justifiable claim than Cambodia.

Despite that, the talks about "losing territory" have been common among thoughtless nationalists in the region.

Lao nationalists talk about losing the Isaan region to Thailand. Cambodian ones talk about losing territories to Thailand and Vietnam. They produce maps of lost territories like Thai nationalists did for generations.

Thais have been taught their territories were lost as well. Every country lost territories. The idea of loss is a powerful tool used to whip up nationalism, especially in domestic politics.

The dark side of nationalism is dangerous as ever. It has now become a weapon in today's Thai politics.

h/t Bangkok Pundit.

Zimbabwe famine

Mass starvation looms for Zimbabwe reports the Guardian. Crop failures and food shortages compound problems caused by financial and agriculture sector mismanagement.

Thailand deports Karen refugees

DPA reports:

The New York-based Human Rights Watch on Saturday blasted Thailand for forcing 52 Karen refugees to return to a conflict-zone in Myanmar on Asarnha Buccha Day, the beginning of Buddhist lent.

Thursday incident at Preah Vihear temple

This incident is worth examining, because it shows how easily this utterly pointless military standoff could lead to bloodshed.

The standoff nearly erupted into violence late Thursday, when witnesses said troops twice pointed their guns at each other during 10 tense minutes at the pagoda after 50 Cambodian troops entered the compound to protect food supplies for dozens of monks.

The confrontation began after three Thai protesters were arrested for jumping a fence to reach the temple on Tuesday.

The World Court ruled in 1962 that Preah Vihear belongs to Cambodia. But the most accessible entrance to the Khmer ruins lies in Thailand and 4.6 square kilometres (1.8 square miles) of the surrounding land remains in dispute.

What to call political leaders who allow a border dispute to escalate to this extent? Khmerization blogger has photos of Thai military mobilization in the border region: tanks and heavy artillery are pictured. He also has photos of nationalist Thais on the march. Is Thailand hell-bent on provoking its volatile neighbor?

Some background here.

Cambodia asks UN Security Council to take up Thailand border dispute

IHT reports:

The diplomatic sparring between Bangkok and Phnom Penh has intensified ahead of high-level talks on Monday involving the two countries' defence ministers.

Thailand summoned Cambodia's ambassador on Friday to respond to Prime Minister Hun Sen's charge that Thai troops had "encroached" on Cambodian territory" and that the situation was "worsening".

In a letter to Hun Sen, Samak said Cambodian troops and buildings on the disputed 4.6 sq km (1.8 sq mile) area were a "violation of Thailand's sovereignty and territorial integrity".

He added his government was "resolved to seek a just and peaceful solution to the situation".

Cambodia has asked the United Nations' Security Council to discuss the border dispute with Thailand, Thai Government Spokesman Wichianchot Sukchotrat told Reuters.

"We have been informed by our ambassador to the U.N. that Cambodia has filed a complaint over the dispute to the U.N.," Wichianchot said.

NATIONALIST FERVOUR

In Cambodia, Preah Vihear has become a key issue in the run-up to next Sunday's election as Hun Sen's ruling party and the opposition vie for votes by stoking nationalist fervour.

"They should focus on issues like fighting poverty and corruption instead of using Preah Vihear for their political interests," said Kek Galabru, head of the LICAHDO rights group.

Lieutenant General Sujit Sitthiprapha, commander of Thailand's Second Army, said more troops were sent to the border after Cambodia reinforced its forces at the temple.

A Reuters witness saw a convoy of eight Thai army trucks ferry several hundred soldiers to the border. In another convoy, trucks towed heavy artillery.

"If things escalate, we can use those troops right away," Sujit said, although he added the soldiers at the temple "were still talking to each other".

Thailand estimates it is facing 1,200 Cambodian troops in and around the temple, although Phnom Penh disputes that figure.

Chea Mon, Cambodia's military commander at Preah Vihear, said the situation was calm at the temple where his men faced about 400 Thai soldiers.

"We are protecting our borders. We will leave it to government leaders to solve this issue," he said by telephone.

I previously blogged the dispute here.

When will Israel attack Iran?

"(T)he period from Nov. 5 to Jan. 19 seems the best bet, as it gives the West half a year to try the diplomatic route but ensures that Israel will have support from a lame-duck White House" writes Benny Morris in a morbid NY Times op-ed.

Morris echoes Senator Kerry's lament that sanctions have not been given a serious go (see "Don't Myanmar Iran"). Morris believes Israel will do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from getting the bomb. And he argues that if the international community does not take action, both the world at large, but especially Iranians, will wish they had.

Journalist and blogger unravel Tibet riot mystery

Just how severe was the security crackdown in Lhasa? What is to account for the apparent delay in the crackdown? James Miles, the only accredited Western reporter in Lhasa when the riots broke out, has been asking these questions. He writes in the Economist:*

The security forces’ response was highly unusual compared with their usual tactics for dealing with protests in Tibet and elsewhere in China. In 1993 the authorities quelled a riot in central Lhasa using tear-gas and plastic bullets. This time they kept well away from the rioting. Even if troops did shoot at people, it was not part of a concerted effort to stop the unrest.

. . . in fact the eruption of citywide rioting was slower than this suggested. . . Foreign tourists say three lorryloads of paramilitary troops arrived at around 1.15pm. . . . But the troops scattered within a few minutes after being bombarded with stones. Some of them abandoned their shields. Photographs show that several of the security personnel, although carrying shields and wearing helmets, were in civilian clothes. They did not look ready to defend themselves against rioters, let alone to try to stop them.

Kadfly, a the only citizen-journalist blogging from Lhasa on March 14, obtained these photos and posted them on his blog. The Economist article continues:

Why didn't they riot?

There are a number of possible explanations for this half-hearted response to such a big incident. It may have been simple bungling by a security apparatus . . . Or perhaps official decision-making was paralysed by differences over what to do, and hindered by the absence of Mr Zhang, the party chief, who was in Beijing at the time.

The slow and cackhanded reaction is puzzling nonetheless. China, after all, faces tens of thousands of protests and riots every year, most swiftly contained. . . .

The security forces and political apparatus had long been nervous in Tibet especially. . . anti-Chinese protests from 1987 to 1989 culminated in the imposition of martial law . . . Since then, officials . . have never let down their guard. . . .

Even if officials had ignored such warnings, the protests at Lhasa’s monasteries on March 10th and 11th were the biggest in the city since 1989 and provided ample warning of bigger trouble ahead. . . . On March 13th, the eve of the riots, security in central Lhasa was visibly tighter . . .

Yet by 1.30pm on March 14th, as the riots began to spread beyond the area near the Ramoche Temple, the security presence had all but disappeared from that part of the city. Once the riots began to spread, officials may have worried that any effort to control them would lead to bloodshed that would damage China’s image in the build-up to the games. But it is also possible that some officials actually wanted the violence to escalate, as a pretext to impose blanket security on the city long before the Olympics. They might have calculated that tensions in Lhasa were likely to present a growing security headache in the run-up to the games, and that foreign scrutiny would become more intense. By refraining from an immediate bloody crackdown they might even gain international kudos for avoiding a Tiananmen-style response. Chinese officials may have been genuinely surprised that, in the event, Western reaction was overwhelmingly negative.

This response was fuelled by a widespread perception outside China, encouraged by reports from Tibetans in exile, that large-scale bloodshed had indeed occurred. But it is still not known whether the security forces shot anyone at all during the unrest of March 14th and 15th in Lhasa. Figures used by Tibetans abroad have fudged the issue. The Dalai Lama himself says more than 200 people have been killed by Chinese security forces since March. But he and his aides have provided scant detail. There is little doubt that several were shot in other parts of the plateau, most notably in Sichuan, where several dozen may have been killed.

In the case of Lhasa the Tibetan government-in-exile has published a list of only 23 Tibetans killed on March 14th and 15th. But it is unable to provide a consistent account of these incidents. In an interview with The Economistt in May, the Dalai Lama admitted he was uncertain about how the unrest developed in Lhasa and the details of any shooting by the security forces there: “There is a lot of confusion and contradictory information.”

No photographs have come to light from Lhasa of violence by police or troops on March 14th or 15th, nor of any resulting casualties. . . . . Georg Blume of Die Zeit . . . arrived in Lhasa on March 15th . . . in nearly a week of interviews he was unable to confirm any reports of killings by the security forces.

The relay of the Olympic torch. . . . original plans for three days of ceremonies across Tibet would have been a security nightmare—and would have been even worse had there been no crackdown in March. . . . . Disgruntled Tibetans would have sensed an opportunity.

Reflecting upon events he observed five months ago and the Economist article, Kadfly concludes: "Beijing could have easily avoided this publicity nightmare by letting foreign journalists in to document what their security forces were actually doing, instead of keeping them out and forcing them to speculate about massacres and bloodshed."
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*h/t Kadfly

Malaysia: Anwar Ibrahim arrested

Malaysia arrested opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. Once again, he is accused of sodomy. See here and here.

Thailand political crisis timeline

On 2 June Reuters published a timeline (it begins in April 2006).

Burma food shortage looms: FAO issues urgent appeal

My biggest concern -- relating to the impact of the cyclone -- may yet come to pass. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reports:

17 July 2008, Rome – With the clock ticking on Myanmar’s main planting season, agricultural support is urgently needed to restore food production in the country’s cyclone-hit rice bowl, FAO said today.

Currently, 75 percent of farmers in the country’s main food-producing region lack sufficient seed, with little time left before the end of the planting season in August. FAO is appealing for US$33.5 million to help cyclone-affected households restore their livelihoods and resume food production during this crucial period. [...]

Over 783 000 hectares of rice paddy fields – 63 percent of paddy land in affected areas – were submerged and up to 85 percent of seed stocks destroyed when Cyclone Nargis struck in May, according to recent assessments led by FAO and the Government. Present yield rates, coupled with the loss of draught animals and power tillers, indicate a reduction of 550 000 tonnes in the paddy rice harvest, or 32 percent of production in the most-affected areas, the UN agency said.

More than 100 000 fishers have also been affected, with significant losses of boats and fishing gear and more than 21 000 hectares of aquaculture ponds destroyed. Fish and rice constitute the key components of the Myanmar diet.

It is incumbent that we provide the Burmese with the tools and seeds they require.
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Photo: By Jotman, shows man harvesting rice in Central Java in May 2008. Before the Burmese of the Irrawaddy Delta can harvest rice, they must plant.

Food crisis in East Africa to worsen

DP-A reports (via African Agriculture):

An expected poor 2008 cereal crop yield in several East African countries is set to exacerbate food insecurity for millions of people affected by high food prices, a UN agency warned July 15.

The FAO says Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda and Kenya all face poor harvests in 2008.

Lawsuits against bloggers

Here is wake up call to bloggers. CSM reports:*

• "Since 2004, 159 court actions have targeted citizen journalists for libel and other charges." Seven cases have resulted in verdicts against bloggers, with cumulative penalties totaling $18.5 million. Many more legal actions never result in trial."
  

• "Since 2003, 64 bloggers have been arrested around the world – with Egypt, China, and Iran initiating more than half of those arrests. . . By contrast, the United States has arrested two in that period."
  

* hat-tip Chido Makunike at African Agriculture

Text of Al Gore energy speech

In a speech delivered in Washington D.C. on July 17, Al Gore said:

Today I challenge our nation to commit to producing 100 percent of our electricity from renewable energy and truly clean carbon-free sources within 10 years. This goal is achievable, affordable and transformative. It represents a challenge to all Americans – in every walk of life: to our political leaders, entrepreneurs, innovators, engineers, and to every citizen.

Read the entire text of the historic speech here.

Thailand: southern insurgency ceasefire?

A group calling itself Thailand's United Southern Underground Group* has announced a ceasefire throughout the insurgency ravaged southern provinces of Thailand. The announcement came via satilite television broadcast Wednesday (apparently part of the intention was to notify the insurgents themselves of the ceasefire). Hardly anybody -- not even the Thai army -- had heard of this group before. It's not clear how many insurgents this group represents. The identity and affiliation of the Southern insurgents has been largely unknown.

General Chetta Thanacharo, who was Minister of Defense under Prime Minister Thaksin, claims to have brokered the ceasefire. Thai military officials are reportedly skeptical and think Chetta may be engaged in self-promotion. A Human Rights Watch spokesman said Chetta may have "jumped the gun."

See Bangkok Pundit's comments on this unusual development. Also this AP report.
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* Means "Tai Ruam Pak Tai Khong Prathet Thai"
h/t Bangkok Pundit.
Photo: shows group's and their flag leaders from video broadcast on army-run Channel 5 to other TV stations via MCOT.

Imagine a world without Belgium

Deutche Welle reports on the breakdown of the the five-party coalition government of Prime Minister Yves Leterme. Late Monday night the king instructed the government not to resign and called for a period of deliberation while he consulted with French and Flemish leaders.

Here's the crux of the problem:

Both sides are struggling to increase their influence in the country, with the Flemish -- representing some 60 percent of Belgium's 10.5 million people -- demanding increased responsibilities for their territories. In particular the reorganization of the multilingual constituency of the Brussels region was under dispute.

Flanders, Belgium's Dutch-speaking northern half, craves more regional powers to reflect its prosperity. It also resents subsidizing the less affluent, French-speaking Wallonia region to its south.

US envoy William Burns to meet with Iran in Geneva

After listening William Burns of the State Department respond to questions from Senators last Wednesday, I blogged that the meeting left me "hopeful." Today, a historic breakthrough. The NY Times reports:

President Bush has authorized the most significant American diplomatic contact with Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, sending the State Department’s third-ranking official [William Burns] to Geneva for a meeting this weekend on Iran’s nuclear program, administration officials said Tuesday.

There remains the possibility that this is a "we tried and failed" ploy, last ditch diplomatic showmanship before Bush orders US bombers to attack Iran. As Iran may fear what the Bush administration (or Israel) will do next, it may want talks in Geneva to succeed. Let's hope the Bush administration has accorded William Burns sufficient authority to cut a deal.

Photo: By Jotman. Shows William Burns at the Committee on Foreign Relations meeting last Wednesday (here and here).

Endangered Banks

At this hour in the US, six of the top sixty searches on Google's search engine concern Americans' fear of more bank failures. It is apparent that the US government's Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) website is receiving a flood of hits. I noticed yesterday that FDIC had taken out a full page ad in Newsweek, alerting citizens that their deposits are insured only to a maximum of $100,000. Perhaps the US banking crisis is more severe than business and government leaders have been willing say in public. If panic is the worst enemy of the financial system, might Google search trends portend trouble?

What's good for Thaksin?

If we hope to grasp what's next for Thailand, that's the question. As I blogged, ". . . Thaksin's own predicament is likely to have a substantial bearing on how the government chooses to respond to the unfolding crisis."

I have commented on the instability in Thai politics at this juncture, wrought by two recent high court decisions. Will a snap election be called? There were indications that PM Samak had been seriously considering that option. Thailand's Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban, quoted in the Bangkok Post believes that will not happen.*

Mr Suthep said yesterday the ruling People Power party (PPP) can buy at least six months until the Constitution Court hands down a verdict on whether the party should be dissolved for electoral fraud.

He said a House dissolution is likely to be the last resort for the PPP as long as it has yet to complete the constitutional amendments it wants. "Mr Samak will struggle on by reshuffling the cabinet so the government is refreshed, and it may survive until the end of the year or January next year," he said.

Mr Suthep said former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is believed to be pulling the strings behind the Samak administration, will be trying to get Article 309 of the constitution repealed. The provision deals with the work of the Assets Scrutiny Committee, whose term has now run out. "

Dissolving the House seems out of the question and it does raise risks for Mr Thaksin. In the case of a House dissolution, at least four months would elapse before a new government is formed. "By that time, his court trial will be over," he said.

It is not clear to me why a snap election call necessarily involves a four month delay. Only if a four month delay is inevitable does Suthep's point make complete sense to me. There are risks associated with delay, not the least of which is the prospect of a worsening economy. Also, military or palace intervention would seem to remain a possiblity if street demonstrations or other events create the perception that the government is not up to the job. These groups may cry foul if Samak continues to pursue his constitutional amendments. Whereas an election victory could give the PPP a stong mandate to make the changes it wants.

* h/t Bangkok Pundit. Bangkok Pundit maintains that a general election is most likely to be held sometime in the first half of 2009.

US votes to ban Burma gems and wood imports

Tuesday, the United States House of Representatives voted to sanction Burma, AP reports:

The unanimous vote sent back to the Senate a bill that bars rubies and jade from Myanmar from being imported into the U.S. The Senate bill, which passed in December, also sought to bar timber from Myanmar, called Burma by some."

In other Burma news, on Monday a bomb exploded on a bus in Karen State. This follows the bombing of an office near Rangoon at the beginning of the month.

Is Russia about to do a favor for Thailand's PM?

Apparently Thai PM Samak just made a deal to buy diesel from Russia at an astoundingly low price:

Manoon Siriwan, an energy expert and former deputy managing director of Bangchak Petroleum, agreed that eight baht a liter cheaper seemed too good to be true.

Maybe Samak is an awesome negotiator. But I can't help but wonder what Thailand might have offered Russia in exchange for such a steep discount. What does Bangkok have that Moscow badly wants -- aside from Victor Boot?*
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*Russian arms dealer languishing in a Thai prison awaiting extradition to the US. If the exchange does involve Boot, diplomatic protocol would have it occur after Bush's visit to Chang Mai in early August.

US election campaign goes international

"Since when do American candidates, particularly candidates who are not incumbents, actually conduct their campaigns abroad?" asks Anne Applebaum in Tuesday's Washington Post. Good question. See also this post where I blogged:

So far as the US election is like a game, you might say the planet is about to become the stadium. This promises to be the first US presidential election in which important campaign battles will be fought on foreign soil.

Burma food crisis

ABC reports:

Many rice farmers whose fields were flooded have now missed the main planting season, meaning they will have to buy rice or hope for donations at least until next year.

This is the precisely the situation the international community had sought to help Burma avoid.

McCain plans Obama trip to South America

Reuters reports:

"Republican presidential candidate John McCain, who has hectored Democratic rival Barack Obama to visit Iraq, now says Obama should go to South America as well. [...]

"And while it is surely not my intention to become my opponent's scheduler, I hope Sen. Obama soon visits some of the other countries of the Americas for the first time," McCain is to say

McCain certainly has good sense of humor. At the end of McCain's visit South America, three US hostages were freed. McCain wants Obama to go to corners of the world McCain feels he has the edge.
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See my post"Obama's World Tour."

Global citizenship quote

Does a man bathe quickly? Do not say that he bathes badly, but that he bathes quickly. Does a man drink much wine? Do not say that he does this badly, but say that he drinks much. For before you shall have determined the opinion, how do you know whether he is acting wrong? Thus it will not happen to you to comprehend some appearances which are capable of being comprehended, but to assent to others.

- Epictetus, The Enchiridion, XLV

What were they thinking?

The editors of the The New Yorker just had the brilliant idea to assemble every right-wing myth about Obama into a single cover illustration. Not surprisingly, some folks are not amused. The cover is so over-the-top, in fact, that I suspect the issue will become an instant collector's item.

I might mention that I recently traveled to Indonesia in search of Obama's madrasah.

19 Singaporeans can't take it anymore

Public gatherings of more than 5 people are illegal in Singapore. “Tak Boleh Tahan" (Malay for "We can’t take it anymore") was the name of a small price-hike protest held outside the parliament building in Singapore back in March. Now the 19 arrested protesters are looking for a lawyer.

Chai Ti Lik, h/t Jeg

Major Thai court decisions "politics by other means"

A recent WSJ article by Baker and Pasuk argues so. Bangkok Pundit responds:

The current cases are about taking out Thaksin, not establishing a rule of law. If it was about the rule of law and stamping out corruption, what has happened to the e-passport scandal?

China's Security Olympics

By the looks of things, activists soon need not regret the lack of an Olympic boycott. It appears to some Western observers in Beijing that the Chinese authorities are close to having spoiled the Games through their own sheer incompetence. How could this be? James Fallows recently spoke with someone in-the-know, blogging:

The gist of his point: the reason the Chinese government is being so unbelievably ham-handed in its security measures and irritating the very foreigners it has invited to view its Games is that it is so ill-informed and naive about the real views of the outside world. Also it has such limited intelligence about the terrorist threats it actually might face that it is over-reacting and trying to shut everything down.

One new theory holds that the Beijing Olympics were primarily intended as a party for the locals. What might look to you or me like big problems don't matter so much to Beijing. They know Chinese people have routinely and stoically faced various annoyances wrought by government officials over the years. (i.e. " even a tightly controlled Olympics is going to be more fun for many Chinese than anything else they've ever done.")*

Photo: by Jotman. Shows Chinese torch relay supporters in Bangkok -- I blogged/ran the relay.
* Richard Spencer in the Telegraph, h/t ESWN

Bush to visit Thailand

This report appeared in The Nation:

US President George W Bush will pay an official visit to Thailand early next month to commemorate 175th anniversary of ThaiUS diplomatic relations before he attends the Beijing Olympic Games, informed sources told The Nation.

The sources said that Bush will arrive in Chiang Mai on 6 August and spent a night there. His schedule in Thailand would be very light with a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej. Bush is also scheduled to have an audience with HM the King, who is residing in Hua Hin. Bush also plans to give a major policy speech on US policy towards East Asia during his visit in Bangkok. . . .

Burma: local firms will need to be watched

The Washington Post reports:

At least 30 big Burmese companies that locals refer to as "cronies" of the junta were assigned to the reconstruction and relief efforts in the delta's townships. This has raised concerns in Yangon, the largest city, that the companies will eventually collect payback in the form of land concessions in the delta or elsewhere in the country.

But Western diplomats and aid workers say that so far, the companies have often proved helpful. Some aid agencies, including Save the Children, have turned to businessmen such as Serge Pun, whose holdings include Yoma Bank, to obtain boats and warehouse space and to speed deliveries to the affected areas.

Burma's lost mangroves and the cyclone death toll

The Washington Post published an interesting update on the Burma cyclone recovery effort. This statistic caught my attention:

According to a study published last month by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, decades of illegal encroachment and government-sanctioned neglect had seriously degraded the mangrove forests in the Irrawaddy Delta. "If there had been decent mangrove on the shorelines, the death toll would have been cut in half," said Lucas Riegger, a U.N. vulnerability analyst and mapping specialist.

Also consider the extent to which the death toll would have been cut had the junta not blocked international aid for weeks. It looks as if Burma's Cyclone Nagris was mostly a man-made tragedy.

A pan-ASEAN terrorist network?

Recently, nine terror suspects were arrested in Sumatra equipped with five times the explosives used in the 2002 Bali bombings (this post). AKI reports on the possible source of the deadly materials:*

Bombs that were discovered during a recent police raid on the Indonesian island of Sumatra could have originated from Thailand or the southern Philippines.

*h/t Bangkok Pundit

Building schools to fight terrorism

Nicholas Kristof writes in Sunday's NY Times:

Each Tomahawk missile that the United States fires in Afghanistan costs at least $500,000. That’s enough for local aid groups to build more than 20 schools, and in the long run those schools probably do more to destroy the Taliban.

My own take on this solution here.

Obama's silent inner circle

Rolling Stone's Tim Dickinson reports on the (impressive) management skills of the presidential candidate.*

*h/t rconversation
Update 7/15: WaPo has just published a similar, somewhat more detailed article.

What happened on Wednesday July 9?

As Krugman put it,"it was the best of days, it was the worst of days." Unhappily, in the morning, the Senate passed the notorious FISA spy bill, which I blogged.

Wednesday afternoon, I took this photo outside the Senate wing of the US Congress. The kids in the photo have been told to wait while Vice President Dick Cheney's motorcade prepares to leave Capital Hill.

As it turned out VP Dick Cheney didn't have to cast the deciding vote in the Senate on a healthcare bill. That's because Senator Edward Kennedy -- recovering from brain surgery -- showed up in a wheelchair to cast the deciding vote.

Economist Paul Krugman believes the passage of the health bill Wednesday could prove the tipping point in the Democratic Party's decades-long struggle to provide Americans with universal health insurance:

. . . the vote was bigger than the theatrics. It was the first major health care victory that Democrats have won in a long time. And it was enormously encouraging for advocates of universal health care.

Here’s how it will play out, if all goes well: early next year, President Obama will send his health care plan to Congress. The plan will face vociferous opposition from the insurance industry — but the Medicare vote suggests that this time, unlike in 1993, Democrats will hold together.

Unless Democrats win even bigger than expected, however, they won’t have the 60 Senate votes needed to override a filibuster. What the Medicare fight shows is that the Democrats could nonetheless prevail by taking their case to the public, daring their opponents to stand in way of health care security — so that in the end they get some Republicans to switch sides, and get the legislation through.

Basically, the Democrats just proved they could take on the US health insurance industry and win.

Thailand's courts: newly assertive, but how independent?

In the previous post, I wrote that any recent "judicial revolution" or "judicial coup" in Thailand has left open some big unanswered questions. The main question, it seems to me, which I did not address fully in the post, jumps out at you when you read Macan-Markar's article:

On the political front, too, the superior courts in the past did not stand up to power, when Thailand was under the grip of its many military dictators. . .

‘’Until April 2006 there hadn’t been much awareness that the courts should and could play such a decisive role in the country’s politics,’’ says Streckfuss. ‘’The king’s speech directed the courts to be more active. And since then, the courts have been causing the government a lot of grief.’’

‘’The courts are emerging as a possible key entity to redefine the relationship between the people and the government,’’ says Thanet, the historian. ‘’What we have is a new power equation. Governments will have to face up to it.’’

The point that needs to be made here is that military-backed governments tended to enjoy the support of the palace. Whereas in recent years the involvement of the judiciary in constitutional matters coincided with the rise of a strong democratically elected prime minister (Thaksin). And at times it appeared to observers that Thaksin did not have the full support of the palace.

The evolution of the Thai judiciary is best viewed not only in relation to its ability to check Thai politicians, but to what extent it has advanced positions dear to the monarchy and military. Before we applaud the rise of any newly assertive judicial branch in Thailand, the question begs to be asked: to what extent, in practice, does it operate as independent branch of government? And this is a difficult question for anyone in Thailand to address. That's because the people of Thailand lack the freedom to criticize either the monarchy or decisions handed down by judges.

A judicial coup in Thailand?

Earlier in the week, two decisions were handed down by the Supreme Court of Thailand, either of which could spell the end of the elected government. At the time, I blogged that the upheaval stemming from the court decisions represented the "the deepest political crisis since the coup of September 2006."

Macan-Markar, writing in an IPS article observes that some academics are enthusiastically labeling this development a "judicial revolution." A weak judicial branch is commonly identified as a fundamental weakness of most developing countries. Therefore, it is hardly surprising that some observers would be tempted to see the emergence of a strong judicial branch in Thailand as a largely positive development.

However, Bangkok Pundit rejects this interpretation. He thinks no mere "revolution" has occurred, blogging:

. . . Yes, the judiciary can and should be a check on executive power. But power has been shifted too far towards the judiciary. The judiciary do not exercise just judicial power, they are involved in selecting Senators (who then in turn confirm judges) and members of independent organsiations. They choose amongst themselves who will fill the top positions and are of course unelected. . .

Furthermore, notes Bangkok Pundit, in Thailand the judiciary cannot be criticized. The Fourth Estate does not comment on the merit of judicial decisions. There is no oversight.

Who will guard our judicial guardians? Quite simply, it is a judicial coup and one we cannot criticise.

One legacy of the coup of 2006 was that the royalist-backed junta appointed government tore up the 1997 constitution. They wrote a new Constitution in such a way as to further empower an appointed judiciary. The PAD led street demonstrators which threatened to topple the government in June represented an attempt to counter the elected government's plans to amend the 2007 Constitution.

Questions remain. Has coup by judiciary made military coups obsolete? What power can any future elected government plan to wield? Thailand is one giant political question mark.

Senator John Kerry: Don't Myanmar Iran

At the meeting on Wednesday of the Committee on Foreign Relations concerning Iran, one protester held a sign that read "Don't Iraq Iran." Sentator Kerry, who spoke at the meeting, did not carry a sign. But if he had, it might have read: "Don't Myanmar Iran."

Addressing the meeting, Senator Kerry expressed outraged that serious alternatives to war as a means of halting Iran's nuclear program had not been given more urgent attention. He made a case for a more unified global approach to sanctions.

What bothers me is the world is sitting here -- this is very disturbing -- I talked about this with former Prime Minister Blair. It was interesting listening to his perspective now that he has departed office.

You got a lot of global leaders saying "you can't have this." But you have also got a lot of global leaders who haven't crossed the threshold of making a decision about what has to be done.

Let me just share with you (what I mean), in terms of that outrage.

There has been talk in recent months about the potential of Israel and the United States using military force against Iran.

Now obviously none of us here believe that option should be taken off the table.

There has not been a lot of talk about what global unified, true sanctions can achieve. We did it with South Africa. I was on this committee when we did it. Myanmar is another example: lame, lighthearted little sanctions that really did nothing. . . . China (inaudible) . . . I don't think Mr. Secretary that we are doing a very good job of leveraging our morality, our values, our interests, to calm the world down. . . .

Let me just throw a few things at you: An international arms embargo would have an impact. Resolution 1735 called for it but didn't require it. Are we serious when we call for something but don't require it? . . .

Here is a video which includes a portion of the remarks transcribed above:



___
Note: For my overall take on the meeting, see the previous post, here.
Photo: by Jotman. Shows US Senator and former presidential candidate John Kerry.

Iran test fires missles prior to US Senate meeting

"What was the symbolic significance of the fact that Iran test-fired 9 medium range missiles today?" asked a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The State Department's third highest ranking diplomat, William J. Burns, responded.

At the US Senate committee meeting concerning Iran Wednesday in Washington D.C., Mr. Burns of the State Department indicated that a range of non-military efforts aimed at persuading Iran to abandon the quest for nuclear weapons were being pursued.

Seated behind Burns, protesters in attendance held signs which read: "Diplomacy Saves Lives" and "Don't Iraq Iran."

Senators of the bipartisan committee applauded the administration's success at securing a range of financial sanctions against the Iranian regime. And they noted that there had been real progress in terms of getting other countries to pursue meaningful sanctions aimed at stopping Iran's nuclear weapons program.

However, new US legislation -- aimed at punishing any foreign company that does more than $20 million in business with Iran -- threatens to alienate foreign governments, undoing this progress. Senators cautioned against adopting such a heavy-handed approach in building support for sanctions.

Burns indicated that the US government was moving towards recognition of the need to negotiate with Iran. Good, but bittersweet news. The senators lamented that the Bush administration -- or at least the State Department! -- seemed to be moving towards a position towards Iran that could -- and ought to -- have been embraced many years ago.

Senator John Kerry made the case that far too little enthusiasm and work had gone into coordinating international sanctions against Iran. Kerry cited Burma as an example of how "weak sanctions don't work." On the other hand, Kerry said he viewed South Africa as a contrary example where sanctions had the desired effect.

The meeting left me hopeful that the US will not go to war with Iran. However, the legacy of US involvement in Iraq cast a shadow over the discussions. It is not inconceivable to me that both the US Senate and the State Department are largely "out of the loop" with regards to Iran. What if that dark force within the Bush administration harbors other intentions?

Photos: Top photo by Jotman shows Senator Lugar (left) and Senator Hagel (right). Bottom photo also taken by Jotman shows the Vice President of the United States (somewhat less-cropped version here).

Obama vote gives rise to Strangebedfellows

I took this photo of Obama on Wednesday afternoon as his motorcade departed the parking lot of the US Congress. He had just betrayed a promise to his early supporters.

Because on Wednesday, the United States moved a step closer to being a country ruled not by law, but by an imperial presidency that stands above the law; it moved nearer to abandoning the "separation of powers" between the legislative and judicial branches -- a fundamental tenant of democracy; its senators cast a vote that confirms suspicions that the US government is controlled by a corporate oligarchy -- one that rules by fear.

Senator Obama went back on his word that he would never let this happen.

The NY Times reports: "More than two and a half years after the disclosure of President’s Bush’s domestic eavesdropping program set off a furious national debate, the Senate gave final approval on Wednesday afternoon to broadening the government’s spy powers and providing legal immunity for the phone companies that took part in the wiretapping program."

Glenn Greenwald - an expert on the US Constitution -- blogs what Obama's controversial vote on the floor of the US Senate means for the rule of law. His recent posts on the new Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) are well worth reading. In a post Wednesday, Greenwald reviews the FISA vote count. Obama voted yes -- as would McCain had he bothered to show up to vote. Obama then voted for closure -- to cut off further Senate debate on the bill he once vehemently opposed. (On the other hand, Hillary Clinton voted against the bill). Greenwald concludes: "Obama's vote in favor of cloture, in particular, cemented the complete betrayal of the commitment he made back in October when seeking the Democratic nomination." In October 2007, an Obama spokesman had assured the public:

"To be clear: Barack will support a filibuster of any bill that includes retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies."

One Republican senator, Arlen Specter (Pennsylvania) had proposed a weak amendment to FISA. Specter believed that too few senators had actually been briefed on the controversial legislation. During the debate on his amendment, from the gallery of the Senate I watched something transpire that I would have thought -- assumed -- unthinkable. I witnessed Democratic Party Senator John D. Rockefeller (West Virginia) tell the Republican Senator for Pennsylvania that not pass the legislation in its current form would put "US national security at risk." (The threat the Bush Administration keeps using against Democrats). Specter retorted that for years he had served as chairman of the Intelligence Committee. Specter was right to be outraged. The debate was surreal. I think it is indicative of a problem that go well beyond any questions we have about President Bush.

Accordingly, the vote on the spy bill has united a diverse array of libertarian Republicans and left-wing Democrats. They have formed a new group called Strangebedfellows. According to their new website, "Strangebedfellows is a unique and diverse left--right coalition which has come together to put a stop to the eradication of civil liberties in America."

This new left-right coalition is worth supporting. It will be interesting to watch how this movement develops. As for the immediate impact of today's vote? I suspect George W. Bush should sleep well for many more months to come. He will have Senator Obama and a largely Democratic US Congress to thank for it.

Thailand faces constitutional crisis

Thailand has entered the deepest political crisis since the coup of September 2006. First, Monday saw a major constitutional court ruling. Tuesday came a second high court ruling. For reasons outlined below, either of these two decisions could spell the end of the government. Also on Tuesday, Thaksin, the billionaire who stands behind the PPP led government went on trial for corruption. It seems to me that Thaksin's own predicament is likely to have a substantial bearing on how the government chooses to respond to the unfolding crisis.

First, a brief overview of the situation, compiled from articles published today in the The Nation and the Bangkok Post.

Government violated Constitution. The Nation reported:

The Cabinet was stunned by yesterday's Constit-ution Court ruling on the status of the May 22 Thai-Cambodian communique on Preah Vihear Temple.

The ruling could lead to a mass resignation of Cabinet members if impeachment proceedings are initiated in the Senate against the entire Cabinet for violating the Constitution's Article 190.

Article 190 requires the government to seek Parliament's approval before signing a treaty.

The court ruled that a communique -- in which the Thai foreign minister supported Cambodia's appeal to UNESCO that Preah Vihear temple be granted UNESCO world heritage status -- constituted a kind of international treaty. According to the court, PM's Samak's cabinet failed in its constitutional obligation to consult parliament.

Senate impeachment to begin soon. The Nation reports that senators were "expected to being a legal procedure to impeach the entire cabinet." Should the "National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) accepted such a petition [to impeach] from senators, the Cabinet would be required to suspend its duties. . ." (Presumably, this creates a problem when you have a country to run.) After considering the case, the NCCC would refer the matter back to the Senate. The procedure calls for the NCCC to refer the matter back to the Senate if it agrees there are grounds for the Cabinet to be impeached. "Support from a minimum three-fifths of the upper House is required to impeach the Cabinet."

Incidentally, the Prime Minister wishes that all the blame be dumped on his foreign minister:

"Noppadon will get the jackpot. He will be held liable. Other Cabinet members should be spared, otherwise there will be nobody left to run the country," the PM was quoted by the source as saying.

Foreign Minister Nappadon was one who "signed the communique with his Cambodian counterpart for Cambodia's bid to have the Preah Vihear Temple listed as a World Heritage site."

Anyway, there is some debate -- among Senators too -- about whether or not the whole entire cabinet should be impeached.

Ruling PPP Party faces likely dissolution. The Bangkok Post reports "The Supreme Court on Tuesday backed an Election Commission ruling that influential ex-House speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat committed fraud during campaign for the Dec 23 election. The verdict expels him from parliament and threatens the ruling People Power party with imminent dissolution." The article continues:

After the verdict, PPP members began arguing whether to dissolve the House and call snap elections, a path reportedly favoured by Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and several coalition party leaders. . . .

The Supreme Court's Electoral Fraud Division ruled that Mr Yongyuth had attempted to bribe influential kamnan to back him and his PPP candidates in Chiang Rai.

What are Prime Minister Samak's options?

Thai media reported on Tuesday that Premier Samak met on Monday with key coalition partners Chart Thai leader Banharn Silpa-archa, Pracharaj leader Sanoh Thienthong, Puea Pandin leader Suwit Khunkitti, and Matchimathipataya leader Anongwan Thepsuthin.

They reportedly agreed that Mr Samak should dissolve parliament if Mr Yongyuth was found guilty.

In addition to PPP, four of the five coalition parties also face dissolution over various cases wending their way through the independent organisations and the courts: Chart Thai, Matchimathipataya and Puea Pandin.

The premier could also choose to try to ride out the crisis with a major cabinet reshuffle, replacing a number of lightning rod ministers and attempting to focus on the economy.

Opposition Party to coax coalition of besieged PPP led government to defect to form a coalition. This move by the opposition comes in response to the Supreme Court's decision to back the Election Commission regarding its election fraud charge against Yongyuth Tiyaphairat:

Thavorn Sen-niem, deputy secretary-general of the Democrat Party, said the coalition government now lacked legitimacy to continue to run the country. . . .

Thavorn suggested that other coalition partners should consider forming a new government, presumably with the Democrats as a core leader.

He said the People Power Party, which has 233 MPs, might lose 10 MPs if it were to be dissolved in connection with Yongyuth's election violation.

"If other parties - except the People Power Party - think about the possibility of forming a new coalition government, there would be nothing wrong about it," he said.

Thavorn said the prime minister must not dissolve Parliament as a way out because the MPs from other parties have committed nothing wrong.

"It is not right to use Bt3 billion to Bt4 billion of public money to hold the general election in order to resolve the internal problems of the People Power Party or some Cabinet members from this party," he added.

Thavorn said it would be rather difficult to form a new coalition government, but there is a possibility that it might happen.

In 1997, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, then prime minister, resigned from office due to his failure to tackle the baht crisis. He did not dissolve Parliament and allowed the Democrats to form a new coalition government instead.

Thavorn said he has not held talks with other coalition partners but is simply trying to know their opinions.

It will take at least seven months in the legal process to dissolve the People Power Party, compared to nine months for the Thai Rak Thai Party.

Thaksin's trial begins. Al Jazeera reports:

Thaksin did not attend the opening of the trial on Tuesday, the first in a number of cases against him and his aides.

He faces corruption charges for allegedly using his influence to help his wife, Pojaman, purchase coveted public land in Bangkok at a reduced price.

If convicted, Thaksin and his wife could face more than ten years in prison, with no prospects for appeal.

It looks as if Thailand is headed toward a constitutional crisis. It's probably in the best interest of the governing coalition to take the initiative. I expect they will call an election shortly.

An alternative to this scenario might see HM the King appointing a national unity government. We can be sure former PM Thaksin is busy behind the scenes trying to make sure that doesn't happen. Why? Because the former Prime Minister is on trial. The billionaire Thai leader surely wants his friends power at a time while his future is being decided. Perhaps a snap election is the best way to keep his close allies in high places.

Thaksin may have few friends in the palace, but should another election be called, his constituency of rural supporters in the populous North and Northeast of Thailand would likely return his anointed successors to power.

Thaksin may have already decided that is a bet worth making.

The strongest antidote to terrrorism

With the news that 9 armed terror suspects have just been arrested in Indonesia, it's a good time to ask ourselves what can be done about it. I think this problem is not likely to go away as long as millions of impressionable young people in countries such as Indonesia are equipped with poor reasoning skills.

In a speech to the UN last year, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for a bold international initiative to educate the world's poorest children. Gordon Brown advocated "long-term predictable funding to finance long-term education plans" to realize "schooling for all". Brown said:

And let me tell you why I believe schooling for all can be achieved. Education is not only the most economically efficient and socially beneficial investment we can make but also the cheapest and most cost effective. For in the developing world it costs just 100 dollars per child per year for schooling. Just 2 dollars a week. And so to finance all the schools and teachers we need costs 9 billion dollars a year.

For every person in the richest part of the world that is less than two pence a day, or four cents, a day. If every person in the rich world contributes 10 pounds - or 20 dollars - a year today, we could meet our education goal tomorrow.

The British prime mininister speaks of an inspiring new goal that cries out for American leadership. Both John McCain and Barack Obama would be well advised to make it the foundation for a new kind of US foreign policy.

Photo: I took the above photo in May 2008. It shows Indonesian school children run across a rice field in central Java.

Terror suspects arrested in Indonesia

In Sumatra, Indonesian police arrested nine terror suspects with explosives and bombs set to detonate. Originally they had planned to kill foreigners frequenting a cafe in West Sumatra but apparently changed their target to Jakarta. One of those arrested included Abu Hazam, a Singaporean of Pakistani decent with links to Osama Bin Laden and Malaysian bomb-maker Azahari Husin of terror group Jemaah Islamiah.

The Straights Times noted:

The men all belong to a radical Muslim group known as Forum Anti Kemurtadan or forum against apostasy, which campaigned against Muslims converting to other religions.

Their leader is said to be a 42-year-old headmaster of a pesantren (Islamic boarding school) in Palembang [a large city in south Sumatra], who has military experience in Afghanistan.

Straights Times and UPI

Eight-eight-eighty-eight

A small bomb recently went off in the Rangoon headquarters of USDA, the political-wing of the ruling junta. Reuters reports that secret police are gearing up for Burma's date with destiny:

One major date is likely to be Aug 8, the numerically auspicious 08-08-08 and 20th anniversary of an “8-8-88” student uprising crushed by the army with the loss of an estimated 3,000 lives.

Of course, Eight-eight-eighty-eight also marks the opening of the Beijing Olympic Games.

Second Thai border conflict brewing?

Some Thais recently ignited a border dispute with Cambodia over Preah Vihear temple. A new report suggests another longstanding territorial dispute may be heating up on Thailand's Western border:

Burma has reinforced its troops in the disputed area of Doi Lang mountain, which an army source said might result from its ''misunderstanding'' over a Thai military exercise in the border area. Since last week, more Burmese soldiers with heavy weapons have been deployed to the Doi Lang area, opposite Chiang Mai's Mae Ai district. A 32-sq km area of land has sparked a row between Burma and Thailand, which have their own versions of border demarcation maps.

A source at the Third Army, which oversees northern Thailand, insisted Thai soldiers had only carried out a routine drill near the border without any move to touch on the controversial issue.

''It's probably a misunderstanding by Burma. But so far the situation remains normal,'' said the officer who asked not to be named.

Thai villagers who live near the area, viewed the Burmese move as unusual. More food supplies have been sent to the Burmese army base at Doi Lang while troops beefed up security, replacing bamboo fences with barbed wire.

There is probably more to this story. Perhaps Burma's generals calculate that international military conflict would be a good way to build national unity in the wake of the Cyclone Nagris relief fiasco. They may also reason that with Thailand having mocked internationally recognized claims made by Cambodia to land in the vicinity of its Khmer temple, Burma is better positioned to garner Cambodian support with regards to its own claims against Thailand.

The Doi Lang mountain conflict last flared up in 2003. According to an article published at the time, "The Burmese officer cited the Thai-British treaty signed on October 27, 1894 to back Burmese claims to Doi Lang. However, Thailand referred to a 1980 map to show that the mountain belonged to the Kingdom."

A 1980 map?! If that was truly the best the Thais could come up with, it would hardly be surprising should Myanmar attempt to rouse nationalist sentiments by pressing the issue.

Moreover, Thai governments of every political stripe behave as if Thailand is weak in relation to Burma. Thailand's leaders decline to point out even the most outrageous human rights abuses by the junta (at some cost to the Kingdom's international reputation). In fact, Thai leaders defend the junta at every turn. Is it inconceivable that Burma's leaders -- who command 400,000 troops -- have come to imagine themselves as dominant in the relationship?

The appeasement of tyrants comes at a price.