Cambodians and Laotians will be hurt by Thai crisis

Xin Hua reports:

The tourism industry of Cambodia will see a loss of 100 million U.S. dollars this year, if the current chaos in Thailand can't be reversed in three months, Cambodian media on Tuesday quoted minister as saying.

The Thai capital is a regional hub, from where tourists can enter Cambodia, so the situation there can have direct impact over the tourism industry here, Cambodian Tourism Minister Thon Khong told Chinese-language newspaper the Commercial News.

About 1,500 passengers come to Cambodia through Bangkok everyday, making up 30 percent of all daily entry of visitors into the kingdom, he said.

"Each of them is expected to spend 770 dollars per day in the country," he said.

When times were stable, 10 to 12 flights shuttle between Siem Reap, Phnom Penh and Bangkok, but the crisis in the neighboring country has stopped the boom and will lead to loss to Cambodia for sure, he added.

Tourism is one of the pillar industries of Cambodia. Over two million foreign tourist arrivals are expected this year according to the government's original plan, but the number has been scaled down by almost a quarter recently due to the global financial crisis.

Cambodia's GDP was only US $26.19 billion in 2007 (CIA World Factbook). Many Cambodians live on less than a dollar a day.

Needless to say, tourism revenue is also likely to plummet in Laos and -- to the extent anyone visits the country -- Burma. The populations of Burma, Cambodia, and Laos are poorest in Southeast Asia.

In the case of Cambodia and Laos, Vietnam may well find certain of its cities positioned to replace Bangkok as a regional transit hub -- Thailand's loss. Tourism to the region will eventually recover, but whether Thailand will remain the central draw can no longer simply be assumed.

I might add though that tourism has exploded rather too quickly in Cambodia and Laos, and a slowdown in tourism-related development in these countries might have long-lasting ecological benefits.

Photo: By Jotman. Shows Cambodian monks' bath.

Danger ahead: world rice shortage looms

Talk about potential political dynamite. World governments are about to face up to a severe shortage of rice. This comes as prices for corn, wheat and other grains are selling at a premium and in short supply.

Ominous developments:

• India has banned rice exports
• China and Vietnam have reduced export volumes
• "A rice shortage in the local market is very likely" says one Thai authority.*
  
• Uncertainties also remain: Iran and Indonesia -- two major consumers -- have yet to place orders for rice.
• Already the Phillipeans and Cambodia are facing rice shortages. Aid agencies working on the Burma border report they cannot meet the rice requirements due to the increasing prices. What does this development mean for people living inside Burma? Or for the North Koreans?
  

By the way, if you thought biofuels had a future, in the emerging geopolitical context of food scarcity, think again.**
___
* Already, it's apparent when you go out to eat something at a local Bangkok restaurant that has gone amiss with Thai rice. The rice Thai establishments serve these days is of extremely poor quality (after living in Asia for a while one acquires a taste for quality rice). Thailand as been exporting its best rice, and what's left behind is not very tasty.
** These crops are partly responsible for the increasing food prices.
Source: Bangkok Post

Hanoi 's streets to face traffic jams

It is anticipated that the flow of traffic in Hanoi will grind to a halt within a few years. As a condition entering the WTO this year, Vietnam is required to eliminate its 50% tax on automobile purchases. That's a pretty stark example of how a trade agreement can undermine the the quality of life in an urban center, and comprimise the ability of a state to manage its own transportation infrastructure. Maybe Vietnam can copy Singapore's example and require that car owners purchase vehicle permits.

Crimes Against Humanity: When the Fates of Vietnamese Boat Refugees were in Thai Hands

I recently read Jon Swain's River of Time. It is a fantastic account of the war correspondent's adventures in Indochina focusing on the Vietnam war and the rise of the Khmer Rouge. One of the saddest chapters in the whole book was his account of the rape, robbery, and murder of Vietnamese refugees by Thai fishermen during the late 1980s.

In a recent posting, Bangkok Pundit reports that Thai government ministers may have been culpable in those deaths.

Some background from the Pundit's report: this week, former Thai senator Kraisak called for Thailand to ratify the International Criminal Court so charges of "crimes against humanity" might be brought against deposed PM Thaksin in relation to his prosecution of the war on drugs (alleged to have involved summary executions of suspected drug criminals by the police).

Bangkok Pundit asks: "I wonder what Kraisak thinks about Prem's government from 1980-1988, given his Dad was a Deputy Prime Minister at the time and he was Daddy's adviser for a period. Let's have a look at one thing that happened when Prem was PM." Bangkok Pundit has posted exerpts from an article detailing the horendous humanitarian consequences of directives issued by the Thai government of the day.

Many observers of Thailand say General Prem was a principle figure behind the recent coup. Back when General Prem was prime minister, his government's policies towards the Vientnamese boat people represented a low point in the history of modern Thailand. The leaders of the day should be held to account for their decisions.