Wednesday, December 31, 2008

No more patience

As I had had been traveling when news of the Israeli attack on Gaza broke, I sought out a newspaper to bring me up to speed on developments. I found myself looking around a newsstand for a copy of the Financial Times. I don't always reach for the pink sheets, it's just that I wanted to find out what had actually happened.

Huff Post editor Greg Mitchell has more patience than I. Mitchell made the effort to read those US newspapers which my reflexes had led me to pass over. He blogged:
In the usual process, the U.S. government, media here -- and many of the leading liberal bloggers -- are silent or playing down questions about whether Israel overreacted in its massive air strikes on Gaza, while the foreign press, and even Haaretz in Israel, carries more balanced accounts.

Anyone who cares should consult the respected Haaretz site often, if for no other reason than to learn that criticism of Israeli military actions are usually more heated inside that country than in the USA.

The New York Times, for example, as of today (Monday), has not yet editorialized on the air assault. You may recall the lockstep support in the U.S. for Israeli's invasion of southern Lebanon, which included the use of U.S.-made cluster bombs. That invasion turned out to be a genuine fiasco. One Sunday analysis at Haaretz: "A million and a half human beings, most of them downcast and desperate refugees, live in the conditions of a giant jail, fertile ground for another round of bloodletting. The fact that Hamas may have gone too far with its rockets is not the justification of the Israeli policy for the past few decades, for which it justly merits an Iraqi shoe to the face."
It's hard enough to figure out what is happening in the Middle East without having to navigate American news media sources as if one were an inhabitant of the former Soviet Union forced to read between the lines of Pravda. Yes, I have lost patience.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Economist on Victor Bout

This week's The Economist has an article about Victor Bout, AKA the "Merchant of Death" for his alleged involvement in the arms trade in Africa and elsewhere. The plot that led to to the arrest of Bout in Bangkok was a DEA set-up involving a phony shipment of arms to a known "terrorist group" (FARC in Columbia) arranged through an intermediary who was close to Bout. Should Thailand agree to expedite Bout to the US, Russian-US relations could suffer a setback.

The article describes in some detail how Bout was captured in Bangkok after being set up by the DEA.

Summing it all up, the article concludes:
A big question remains. Why did he leave Moscow when he had proven so skilled at sniffing out risks? A comparison worth drawing is with his swashbuckling English equivalent, an old Etonian-turned-SAS-officer-turned-mercenary, Simon Mann, who launched a failed coup plot in Africa in 2004. The middle-aged Mr Mann pushed on with his hare-brained scheme even when he knew that he should have called it off. He was tempted by money and, perhaps more important, by the chance of a last adventure while showing off to his younger wife.
I thought such insight into Bout's psychology interesting.

What was missing in the article, however, was an analysis as to why the United States put so much of its (overstretched) resources into ensnaring Bout who was apparently living in semi-retirement in Moscow. It's not as if he was still as free to operate -- confined as he now was to the Russian capital -- as in the old days when he roamed all over the place.

Jotman reader Sanjuro has translated in its entirety Bout's only major interview in years -- conducted from his jail cell in Bangkok -- for the benefit of Jotman readers. You can read it here.

Monday, December 29, 2008

Is the red Thai faction set to copy tactics of the yellow?

The emerging conflict on the streets of Bangkok looks set to pit one region of Thailand against another region. The Bangkok Post reports:
Late on Sunday, speakers whipped up thousands of supporters of the red-clad United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) at Sanam Luang with speeches on the theme Prathet Thai Mai Wai Jai Abhisit (Thailand Does not Trust Abhisit).

"Our demand is for Abhisit to dissolve parliament because he has no legitimacy," said Jatuporn Prompan, a core leader of the UDD.

A huge stage at the parade ground near the royal palace was backed with a red banner saying "No confidence in Abhisit Vejjajiva", while protesters waved signs saying "We Love Thaksin" and shook plastic foot-shaped clappers.

"Today the fight is not only for Thaksin but also for justice and democracy," former foreign minister Noppadon Pattama told the crowd.

UDD leaders promised last week that their supporters would not attempt to block parliament to prevent the government from delivering its policy address. But that could change.

UDD leader Chatuporn Promphan said that the UDD will announce its final decision on whether to try to blockade parliament hours before the Lower House is to meet on Monday morning.

Protesters on Sunday afternoon used iron barricades to close down U-Thong Nai Road near the Equestrian Statue of King Rama V. They said they have to blockade the road for the safety of incoming demonstrators in front of the parliament.

Their tactics were a virtual carbon-copy of those used by the parallel group People's Alliance for Democracy, who tried to blockade parliament and halt a policy speech last Oct 7. Police met them with tear gas in a violent confrontation that left one woman dead and several protesters maimed.

The government's Operations Centre at the the Ministry of Interior reported that red-shirted people travelled by train, bus and car to Bangkok from Chiang Mai and Chumphon in the North, Kalasin in the Northeast, Ayutthaya, Chon Buri in the central region and from Chanthaburi in the East to the rally.
The question is whether the Thai police and army will do as little to defend public institutions when confronted by a pro-Thaksin mob dressed in red as they did over the course of the past six months when confronted by a mob dressed in yellow.

It seems to me that confrontation between police and army units and red demonstrators is somewhat more likely than when the protesters wore yellow shirts. Thai government and its supporters -- emboldened by recent success -- could easily miscalculate at this juncture and overplay its hand.

Whereas the red shirt mob is from out of town, the yellow shirt mob -- whose heavy-handed tactics (for example, shutting down the country's main airports) heralded in the new government -- had been comprised of many Bangkok residents. It may seem simplistic to emphasize geography at a time like this, but if these protests lead to violence, regional loyalties will be accentuated. To say that these developments do not bode well for national unity would be an understatement.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Hijacking airports is fun

The Telegraph reports:
Thailand's new foreign minister has described last month's hijacking of Bangkok's main international airport as "a lot of fun."

Kasit Piromya, 64, will be sworn in on Monday as Thailand's new foreign minister. His job of rebuilding Thailand's battered international image will not be helped by the fact that he was a prominent supporter of the protests, and still is.

More than 350, 000 travellers were stranded three weeks ago when a few thousand demonstrators from the ultraroyalist People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) stormed the airport. Investor confidence has been badly shaken and analysts say that lost tourism business could cost 1 million jobs.

But Mr Kasit told an audience of astonished diplomats and foreign journalists on Friday that the protests were "a lot of fun".

"The food was excellent, the music was excellent," he explained.
Before Kasit got into hijacking airports in a big way, he was Thai Ambassador to the US.
__
Hat-tip Bangkok Pundit.

Bush shoe is a hot seller

The Guardian reports that an Istanbul shoemaker has been swamped with hundreds of thousands of orders for the shoe Iraqi journalist Muntazar al-Zaidi threw at President Bush.

When the Consumption Ethic is lose-lose

If you don't really care to learn about what you are consuming, consumption is bound to be far less enjoyable for you than it might otherwise have been. You lose. But producers also pay a price for consumer laziness. They lose too. How and why does this happen?

There could be no easier way to explain it than to point to the Chinese village of Dafen. That's because there could be no better symbol of meaningless consumption as a "lose-lose" proposition than the town's recently booming business in art reproductions. Recently Thomas Friedman reported that the town -- global epicenter of fake art production -- has been decimated by the US recession. Friedman writes:
I had no idea that many of those oil paintings that hang in hotel rooms and starter homes across America are actually produced by just one Chinese village, Dafen, north of Hong Kong. And I had no idea that Dafen’s artist colony — the world’s leading center for mass-produced artwork and knockoffs of masterpieces — had been devastated by the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble. I should have, though.
Reading the above passage, I cannot help but wonder why Friedman dignifies the place by calling it an "artist colony." Friedman refers to "mass produced artwork." Another oxymoron. If it is mass produced, it is not artwork.

Of course, many people will refer to reproductions as artwork. But I expect that 90 percent of those who do so are not trying to make a statement about post-modernism, they simply have not taken the time to learn anything about art. Their consumption of fake art is -- by and large -- thoughtless.

Perhaps none of this would matter -- except to a few art connoisseurs -- were it not for the fact that there are real artists out there. It seems self-evident that American artists do not fare well in any bargain whereby new American homes get furnished with made-in-China reproductions.

According to many globalization idealists -- Thomas Friedman seems to be among them -- places like Dafen are models of win-win globalization. Cheap art for American homes, factory jobs for the Chinese.

I don't buy it. Not when I ponder the fate of Chinese artists.

I am thinking about conversations I have had with a number of artists based in different regions of Southeast Asia. It seems to me the big problem, anywhere you go -- from Bangkok to Bali -- is that most Westerners do not buy art thoughtfully. They all seem to want paintings of flowers or Buddha heads or people surfing. Of course, it's worse than that: relatively few Westerners seem to know -- or care -- about the difference between a mass produced object and an original piece of artwork. I once assumed it was only Americans and Australians who bought art like this. These days, many Europeans are equally thoughtless.

Maybe the tourists like the art, you say. If they like how it looks, so what? What difference does it make if everybody does not appreciate the distinction between fake art and the real thing?

It matters to the local people and the local culture. As a result of the thoughtless consumption habits of Western tourists, in shop after shop, many talented local artists have little choice but to spend their days making knock-offs. I have watched real, talented local artists put in such a position. And I find it rather sad.

Because these artists are not living up to their full potential. They have so much more to give than what is asked of them by the Western consumer.

I'm sure in what Friedman chillingly refers to as "Dafen’s artist colony" (it's almost Orwellian "Newspeak" to call it such) any number of Chinese aspire to produce their own original art. Perhaps at one time Dafen -- like a similar place in Bali -- was a real artists' colony.

The tragedy of globalization is the mindset of the Western consumer.
___
Note: China based journalist Jim Fallows blogged about his visit to Dafen.
Photos:
both photos by Jotman. First shows artist I met in Burma holding his daughter. Second, a Bangkok street artist.

Michael Connell, Bush IT expert is dead


The investigative website Velvet Revolution reports:
Michael Connell, the Bush IT expert who has been directly implicated in the rigging of George Bush's 2000 and 2004 elections, was killed last night when his single engine plane crashed three miles short of the Akron airport. Velvet Revolution ("VR"), a non-profit that has been investigating Mr. Connell's activities for the past two years, can now reveal that a person close to Mr. Connell has recently been discussing with a VR investigator how he can tell all about his work for George Bush. Mr. Connell told a close associate that he was afraid that George Bush and Dick Cheney would "throw [him] under the bus."

A tipster close to the McCain campaign disclosed to VR in July that Mr. Connell's life was in jeopardy and that Karl Rove had threatened him and his wife, Heather. VR's attorney, Cliff Arnebeck, notified the United States Attorney General , Ohio law enforcement and the federal court about these threats and insisted that Mr. Connell be placed in protective custody. VR also told a close associate of Mr. Connell's not to fly his plane because of another tip that the plane could be sabotaged. Mr. Connell, a very experienced pilot, has had to abandon at least two flights in the past two months because of suspicious problems with his plane. On December 18, 2008, Mr. Connell flew to a small airport outside of Washington DC to meet some people. It was on his return flight the next day that he crashed.

On October 31, Mr. Connell appeared before a federal judge in Ohio after being subpoenaed in a federal lawsuit investigating the rigging of the 2004 election under the direction of Karl Rove. The judge ordered Mr. Connell to testify under oath at a deposition on November 3rd, the day before the presidential election. Velvet Revolution received confidential information that the White House was extremely concerned about Mr. Connell talking about his illegal work for the White House and two Bush/Cheney 04 attorneys were dispatched to represent him.

The Velvet Revolution has reported for some time on legal actions and accusations against Connell. The group now demands a full inquiry into the death of Connell. In October the website reported:

Reporter Rebecca Abrahams wrote this week at Huffington Post that on October 11, 2006, longtime Bush/Rove IT expert Michael Connell met with cyber security expert Stephen Spoonamore to learn how to destroy data on White House computer hard drives This was during the height of the United States Attorney scandal and during the tenure of Connell's former employee, David Almacy, as director of the White House Internet and E-Communications Director.

The Free Press describes the controversy around the 2004 vote count in Ohio:
At 12:20 am on the night of the 2004 election exit polls and initial vote counts showed John Kerry the clear winner of Ohio's presidential campaign. The Buckeye State's 20 electoral votes would have given Kerry the presidency.

But from then until around 2am, the flow of information mysteriously ceased. After that, the vote count shifted dramatically to George W. Bush, ultimately giving him a second term. In the end there was a 6.7 percent diversion---in Bush's favor---between highly professional, nationally funded exit polls and the final official vote count as tabulated by Blackwell and Connell.
A July 2008 video probes Connell's alleged role in rigging electronic voting machines (h/t bradblog). According to the video's producers, "This segment illustrates how in Ohio 2004, the entire process of recording and reporting votes was handled by privatized Republican operatives."



Brad Blog aptly sums up the story with this lede:
Described as a "high IQ Forrest Gump" for his consistent proximity to Republican "crime scenes" Connell was killed in a solo plane crash in Ohio on Friday night.
If Connell's death was not by accident, the DOJ has only a few weeks to fumble any plane crash investigation.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Internet censorship in Thailand

FACT (Freedom Against Censorship in Thailand) reports that it has obtained a list of some 1,103 websites that have been blocked by the government of Thailand. According to FACT "these lists were leaked from Thailand's Ministry of Information and Communication Technology." Websites blocked include not only ones in Thailand, but sites in a dozen countries around the world.

Court orders related to some of the blocked websites "cite reasons of lese majeste and national security." Lese majeste is the crime of defaming the Thai monarchy which carries a long prison sentence.

FACT reports on the sites which were blocked:

Along with the obligatory YouTube videos and their mirror sites alleged to be lese majeste in Thailand, numerous blocks to Thai webboard pages, particularly at popular discussion sites, Prachatai (45 separate pages) and Same Sky (56 separate pages). Of course, all webboards in Thailand, including Prachatai and Same Sky, moderate all threads and discussions and self-censor to avoid closure. It is interesting that bureaucrats still find reasons to censor.

Also blocked are weblogs referencing Paul Handley's unauthorised Biography of Thailand's King Bhumibhol, The King Never Smiles, and its translation into Thai along with Thai Wikipedia entries.

The webpages of respected Thai Buddhist social critic, Sulak Sivaraksa who is currently on bail for his fourth accusation of lese majeste, and Matthew Hunt, respected Thai journalist, anticensorship activist and FACT signer, are also blocked as are pages of the respected international newsmagazine, The Economist.
A total of 860 YouTube videos have been blocked, far in excess of the blocking conducted by The Official Censor of the Military Coup; a further 200 pages mirroring those videos are also blocked.

The money was there

It looks as if Obama better remember who got him elected. Or else. Jim Hoagland wrote in Sunday's WaPo that the
. . . problem is the awakening of the world's youth to the raw deal their parents and grandparents -- my generation, in toto -- are handing them, and the growing anger the young feel about the fetid stables of debt, scandal and corruption they are being left to clean.

I don't know what to call the generations on the rise, but Generation Xcess would do just fine for the one now in charge of global affairs. We have taken the greatest financial, technological and political opportunities the world has ever offered and abused them for our own pleasures, greed and egos.

Two weeks of student riots and protests in Greece have left at least 70 people injured and hundreds of businesses and shops vandalized. . . .

But the same dry kindling of the Greek uprising is scattered around Europe, where youth unemployment rates are double or triple those of the population over 24, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and retirement benefits are politically untouchable. Similar tensions are rising in China as the global recession deepens, in oil-producing countries such as Russia and Iran that are caught in the whiplash of rising and falling prices, and most of all in developing countries with broken governments and economies that punish the educated young disproportionately.
Hoagland writes about misplaced spending priorities. Speaking of which, I was talking with a fellow Xer the other day and he suggested the meaning of that 700 billion treasury bailout:
Universal health care? Funding for higher education? Public transport? The money was there. The money was there all along.

The boomers decided they would spend it on themselves, that's all.
I cannot help but imagine one of the next issues to blow up in the US is not going to be the student loan fiasco. Whether young people can get a bailout will be interesting to watch. Frankly, I doubt the young will get a penny of relief until they have taken to the streets in vast numbers.

For example, last week the government approved rules that limits the freedom of the banks and credit card companies to gouge their customers. These rules (preventing banks from suddenly jacking up interest rates, arbitrarily changing payment dates, etc.) won't take effect for 19 months! Did the big US banks have to wait 19 months? Some financial crisis rescue. MSNBC reports:
Most of the rules were first proposed in May and drew more than 65,000 public comments — the highest number ever received by the Fed.
So much outrage on the part of the citizens on this one issue. And yet such delayed action. Could we have seen any more clear statement about who is first in line, and who is last?

If middle class Americans are at the back of the line, the young generation of Americans, saddled with some $10 billion in student loans -- many student-loan shark victims among them -- remain all but invisible to the powers that be.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Inauguration stands go up, military gears up

Here are some photos I took depicting the state of Washington DC's preparations for the inauguration ceremonies. AP reports:
The District of Columbia is preparing for 2.5 million to 3 million people for President-elect Barack Obama's inauguration and may close a major freeway that day to make room for tour bus parking, Mayor Adrian M. Fenty said Friday.

No one knows exactly how many people will come to the city, though officials are expecting "a record crowd," Fenty said. The city is preparing for the maximum possible number of people who could fill the National Mall and the Pennsylvania Avenue parade route.
City officials have said they are expecting about 10,000 tour buses to bring groups to the inauguration.

Reuters reports that the military will play a major roll in preparing for the inauguration:
In a session with defense writers, Renuart said about 7,500 active duty military and roughly 4,000 National Guard troops will participate in the inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama.

According to AP, the military build-up in preparations for the inauguration includes:
Ground-based air defenses include Norwegian Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, and truck-mounted Avenger air defense systems with Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Tribune reports:
The preparations come against a backdrop of heightened security concerns over the presidential transition. The Bush administration is planning to provide the president-elect with a series of contingency plans for potential international emergencies, including terrorist strikes, that could occur after Obama has taken the oath of office.
Given that -- in addition to police and secret service -- some 11,500 troops from Northern Command will also be on duty, participation by the military in the preparations for the swearing-in of President-Elect Obama may well be the most extensive ever.

Photos: by Jotman.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Blinding American narcissism

An American political commentator named Douthat describes his anguish as he struggles with the realization that acts of torture have been committed by Bush Administration officials. Greenwald sees in Douthat's public anguish "blinding American narcissism -- masquerading as a difficult moral struggle." Greenwald blogs:
The moral ambiguity Douthat thinks he finds is applicable to virtually every war crime. It's the extremely rare political leader who ends up engaging in tyrannical acts, or commits war crimes or other atrocities, simply for the fun of it, or for purely frivolous reasons. Every tyrant can point to real and legitimate threats that they feared. . . .

The pressures and allegedly selfless motivations being cited on behalf of Bush officials who ordered torture and other crimes -- even if accurate -- aren't unique to American leaders. They are extremely common. They don't mitigate war crimes. They are what typically motivate war crimes, and they're the reason such crimes are banned by international agreement in the first place -- to deter leaders, through the force of law, from succumbing to those exact temptations. What determines whether a political leader is good or evil isn't their nationality. It's their conduct. And leaders who violate the laws of war and commit war crimes, by definition, aren't good, even if they are American.
All this is blindingly obvious to the rest of the world, of course.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Protests in Vladivostok spell trouble for Putin

Russian Jotman reader Sanjuro informs us that protests have erupted in Russia's Far East. The cause of the protests seems innocuous to an outsider: "news of proposed higher import tariffs for used foreign-made cars."

However, as Sanjuro explains, this is a huge issue to residents of the region and the peoples' anger has made Moscow nervous:
Among drivers in Siberia and the Russian Far East, there is . . . deep respect towards the Japan carmaking industry. There's also some sense of camaderie amongst the drivers and people in the tough car transit industry that potentially makes them a formidable political force. These people are not necessarily aggressive, but their business remembers violent times. I have visited Vladivostok in 1998 and 2004, and from I recall, I could also tell there's deeply embedded separatism in the Far East. Usually latent, it becomes apparent in incidents such as this. Vladivostok has been one of the rare politically active cities in Russia with quite turbulent history of new governance.

Both Kommersant and Gazeta.Ru report that unlike in case with the annual march of the dissidents, authorities are apparently taking these protests very seriously. So far the official reaction has been vague, mixed and reserved.
Sanjuro informs us that Japanese cars are a major industry in Siberia:
The used car import and transit industry is the sole major job provider in the Russian Far East. In the Primorsky Kray alone approximately 100,000 people (local parliament's figure) are engaged in importing used Japanese cars and delivering them to buyers across Siberia, reaching the Urals and beyond.
You can read Sanjuro's entire report on the situation -- which includes links to photos -- here.

Monk: Thais must respect the rule of law

Is Thailand about to join the list of Buddhist countries with truly tragic modern histories -- Imperial Japan, Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, Sri Lanka, Tibet, and Myanmar? Not if the people I met today have anything to say about it.

Outside the US Congress today, I came across some wandering Thai monks.

One of the monks, Appai, was eager to talk about the situation in Thailand. I asked him what message Thailand's monks had for the people of Thailand.

"The people on both sides need to obey the law" Appai said. "The political leaders want power above all else." He told me that with the King getting older, the chances of settlement seemed slim. He felt that this time was not like before, when the king was able to step into settle the dispute.

Appai was gloomy, predicting violence that he feared might escalate into civil war.

I asked him what Thais could take from Buddhist teaching that might help them resolve their disputes.

"Thais need to practice loving kindness towards one another." Appai said.* Then he referred to a message that he would repeat to me several times: "Thailand is a democracy. Thais must respect the rule of law. "

I asked Appai what he thought of the airport take-over by the PAD group.

"Taking over the airports caused hardship to many Thais, as the travel industry is very important to Thailand. It was not good. People must obey the law."

*Loving kindness or metta is a central tenant of Theravada Buddhism (the sect of Buddhism followed in Thailand, Burma, Sri Lanka, and elsewhere in Southeast Asia). See this video to hear a lovely rendition of the metta-sutta in Burmese (which includes subtitles).
Update: As originally posted, the second paragraph from the bottom contained a typo which has been corrected (thanks to Mid for pointing it out).

What to do with the war criminals?

According to SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE INQUIRY INTO THE TREATMENT OF DETAINEES IN U.S. CUSTODY, a bipartisan US Senate report, p. xii:
The abuse of detainees in U.S. custody cannot simply be attributed to the actions of “a few bad apples” acting on their own. The fact is that senior officials in the United States government solicited information on how to use aggressive techniques, redefined the law to create the appearance of their legality, and authorized their use against detainees. Those efforts damaged our ability to collect accurate intelligence that could save lives, strengthened the hand of our enemies, and compromised our moral authority. This report is a product of the Committee’s inquiry into how those unfortunate results came about
Interestingly, the US news media does not consider this finding worth covering in any detail, and has devoted its attention to a scandal involving the loopy governor of Illinois. More about that here.

Photos show the Nuremberg trials where, in Andrew Sullivan's words "Americans tried and executed those responsible for the same techniques now used by the president of the United States."

Monday, December 15, 2008

Abhisit Vejjajiva declared PM of Thailand, red shirts protest

BBC reports that Abhisit Vejjajiva will be the new PM of Thailand.

Abhist, leader of Thailand's Democratic Party was born in Newcastle to Thai parents, and educated at Eton and Oxford. Abhist was awarded the position after winning a parliamentary vote. "Abhisit won 235 votes to 198 for ex-police chief Pracha Promnog, who had been proposed by the former ruling party and its allies" according to The Times.

Nirmal Ghosh of the Straights Times Live-blogged the announcement:
Minutes after Abhisit Vejjajiva won the vote & became 27th PM of Thailand the few hundred red shirts outside the gates flew into a frustrated rage, crashing yellow street barriers against the gates of parliament and hurling debris at police inside the fence. MPs began exiting in cars thru a side gate at 11.30pm and cars were pelted with chunks of concrete as police struggled 2 clear a path. . . . It's lucky there are not more red shirts here.
It has to be said that the "yellow shirts" led the way. They showed people that if you don't like what parliament is doing, you act-out your frustrations on the streets, taking over whatever facilities you please.

The Guardian
reflects on the choice, noting that Abhisit
may not get a chance to prove himself. Abhisit's slender majority may become thinner when byelections to choose 29 new MPs - to replace those sacked by the court ruling that brought down the government - are held on 11 January. That will leave him even more at the mercy of his minor party supporters.
Others I have spoke to raise questions about Abhisit's political acumen, though he is widely regarded as non-corrupt. Can Abhisit connect to the rural voter?

Abhisit's mode of speaking is the opposite of Samak, who was PM of Thailand throughout the first half of 2008. Whereas Samak shot off his mouth at every turn, Abhisit seems to error in the other direction. Abhisit may be prudent to a fault, often hesitating to say anything at all.

Is Abhisit discrete like Obama, or simply fearful of leading? Time will tell.

Is Germany's Steinbrueck making the global financial crisis worse?

Paul Krugman worries anti-Keynes German finance minister Peer Steinbrueck is standing in the way of an effective European response to the economic meltdown. Peer Steinbrueck was recently interviewed by Newsweek (BBC).

According to Steinbrueck, the UK government is spending too much, raising its debt too high to in an effort to avert a depression. Given that Germany's bank-bailout now totals $650 billion, it's hard to understand Steinbrueck's priorities. Unless governments stimulate spending and investment, where does Steinbrueck expect any kick-start to come from? All those public-spirited private bankers?

Annual dissidents' march in Moscow

Drugoi has photos and more photos and video of the Annual Russian Dissidents' March of Dec. 14. good. Drugoi's photos are really good. The reader who pointed me to the photos comments,
As usual, there's more police than protesters. . .

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Afghan woman's reflections on Obama victory

I live-blogged Obama's victory celebrations on the streets of Washington D.C. Orzala Ashraf Nemat, an Afghan woman, was among those celebrating. She has blogged about what went through her mind on the streets of DC on that historic night:
I witnessed a historical moment in Washington when I first learnt of Obama’s victory. I joined the crowed of victorious young and old on the streets of America’s capital that night, somehow with confusing feelings. I say confused because I felt so proud to be in America when it happened, but I was unsure whether I should also be happy with what he would do in Afghanistan. I had just – that same day – seen the shocking pictures of women and children injured by a US coalition-forces bombardment in Shah Wali Kot district of Kandahar province. Would Obama be able to stop such atrocities? Would he be able to fight the war against terrorism with the social and economic means to oppose the military means?
You can read the rest of Orzala reflections here.

My several videos from the night Obama won the election have accumulated over thirty thousand views on YouTube. One video viewer commented:
No one from the media broadcast videos like this. The people being so excited about the election reminded me of videos that Americans would see from other countries.
In case you missed them -- or just feel like being cheered up -- here is one of the videos:

Friday, December 12, 2008

Drug abuse shift: Mission Accomplished?

First, the good news hailed by President Bush. AP reports Bush has
focused on a 25 percent drop in overall drug use among youths since 2001, when he took office.
The bad? Bloomberg reports that a
2008 survey found that at least one in eight high school seniors reported abusing prescription painkillers and stimulants obtained from friends, relatives or schoolmates.
Eight years of Bush Administration's policies spell out "Mission Accomplished" for America's vast legal drug cartel.



Video: As you can tell by the video, I'm going to leverage blogging to get into the pharmaceuticals business. You can personalize your own drugs at Get Your Drug On. Hat-tip Davidrothman.

Is it any wonder young Greeks are rioting?

There is an appaling lack of context provided by media coverage of the rioting in Athens. All we are told is that they are "anarchists". (And what do anarchists do? They riot.) The Economist provides more context, and notes that the conservative government has ignored
the pressing case for social reform, particularly in education, health and policing. But as the global slowdown takes effect, young Greeks see their parents struggling to pay the bills. If they cannot afford to study abroad, they get lousy tuition at a Greek university and, unless their family can pull strings, few chances of a good job. The unemployment rate for young graduates is 21%, compared with 8% for the population as a whole.
I recently blogged about how the Greeks had all but abandoned their highly-praised (and delicious) Mediterranean diet in the past five years and adopted a diet based on American fast-foods. As a consequence, the NY Times noted that rates of obesity and diabetes are skyrocketing:
In Greece, three-quarters of the adult population is overweight or obese, the worst rate in Europe “by far,” according to the United Nations. The rates of overweight 12-year-old boys rose more than 200 percent from 1982 to 2002 and have been rising even faster since.

. . . . “In the last five years it’s become really bad,” she said. “The children are all quite heavy. The market is pushing a lot, and parents and schools seem unable to resist.”
If our lauded global economy is stripping bare places like Greece of the very things most worthwhile in their local culture (things that have made Greece the envy of the world), propagating an unhealthy and unsustainable way of life, is it any wonder the Greeks are rioting? In Greece, globalization literally has made the population sick.

What is the vehicle of all the destructive marketing? The same organizations that profess to "report" on the rioting -- newspapers, television networks -- are dependent on the very advertisers who help to sell a ruinous way of life.

Meanwhile, The Times (London) reports that the rioting is spreading across Europe:
Suspected anarchist protests which have dogged Greece for the last week spread outside the country today, with mobs causing violent scenes in Italy, Spain, Russia, Denmark and Turkey.

A similar AP story notes that one incident "might have been carried out by youths unhappy with globalization and economic difficulties in France."

I expect there will be more riots.

UPDATE: In this video, Chomsky talks about the meaning of Anarchism and its practice in the United States during the 19th Century.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Good news from Japan

I have been carrying a newspaper clipping around with me for nearly six months, meaning to write a post about it sometime. The article is particularly salient this week as the US Congress debates whether taxpayers should provide a bridge-loan to the American automakers.

Newsweek reported that in Japan -- ever a global trend-setter -- new car sales have declined by about one third since 1990, and Japanese spending on autos has started to decline even more precipitously in recent years:

Cars are increasingly just a mobile utility; the real consumer time and effort goes into picking the coolest mobile phones and personal computers, not the hippest hatchback. The rental-car industry has grown by more than 30 percent in the past eight years, as urbanites book weekend wheels over the Internet. Meanwhile, government surveys show that spending on cars per household per year fell by 14 percent, to $600, between 2000 and 2005, while spending on Net and mobile-phone subscriptions rose by 39 percent, to $1,500, during the same period.

For Japanese car companies, the implications are enormous. "Japan is the world's second largest market, with a 17 to 18 percent share of our global sales. It's important," says Takao Katagiri, corporate vice president at Nissan Motor Co. The domestic market is where Japanese carmakers develop technology and build their know-how, and if it falters, it could gut an industry that employs 7.8 percent of the Japanese work force.

While surging exports, particularly to emerging markets, have more than offset the decline in domestic sales so far, companies are looking for ways to turn the tide.
Two points. First, cars are an environmental nightmare. Second, Japanese consumers tend to be trend pioneers.

Now, if the Japanese are turning away from cars, that can only be good news for our environment. That's a big story, right?

Not according to Newsweek. The actual storyline does not concern the benefits fewer cars sold by Japanese automakers could mean for the global environment, but rather the problems this development seems likely to entail for the auto industry and the Japanese economy. The journalistic style serves as a reminder that "good news" is too often defined by the mainstream media as whatever appears to be good for the bottom lines of global corporations. Apparently, nothing else is supposed to matter from the reader's perspective either.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Implications of the crisis in Thailand

Long-term, what does the crisis in Thailand mean for the Thai people and the international community?

Thailand was the first, and has long been a relatively stable democracy in Southeast Asia. The particular tragedy of the present impasse is that Thailand has had so much going for it.

The divisions within Thai society appear deep, and they are regional.

In Bangkok, you have an educated elite -- doctors, civil servants, and professionals -- questioning whether real democracy is the best path forward for their country. A surprising number of Thais will tell you "Western-style" democracy is not their ideal system.

Whenever a sizable -- and the most literate -- portion of the population in a free and democratic country in a major world region turns its back on the fundamental tenants of democracy -- one person one vote, proportional representation -- it sends a signal. Such a signal is liable to be heard around the world. Conceivably, the discontent of the Thai middle class will prove indicative of a broader trend in the developing world. Echoes of Thailand may well be perceived in nearby China, and as far away as Bolivia.

Meanwhile, inhabitants of regions that risk being disenfranchised by the Bangkok elite -- that is, Thais living in the North and Northeast -- have grown richer and politically stronger than ever before in living memory. One doubts the periphery will sit back and simply allow the center take away what the periphery has won for itself.

Not without a struggle. Not now that that almost the entire Thai countryside enjoys access to television, radio, newspapers, and the Internet. Today, the Thai electorate is positioned to figure out for themselves what is really going on. Farmers will ask how a group of protesters was allowed to shut down the country's air transportation system and occupy (and vandalize) Government House, seemingly without any serious repercussions. And they will ask how it was that military and later a court was able to overturn an election. And they will ask why Bangkok twice turned a national icon and their hero into a fugitive.

What is clear is that the elite has provided no popular narrative to defend and explain their actions to Thais outside their own tight circle. The elite tells no story that could possibly be palatable to the rural masses. To the contrary, the center tells the periphery that they are too stupid to vote, too hopelessly corrupt to lead, and too backward to learn. It is not a marketable narrative. Such talk cannot hold a country together.

Now the entire weigh of Thai national unity hangs on a few golden threads. And these threads are worn with age.

This jot began as a response to a question from Jotman reader J-P.

Friday, December 5, 2008

Bangkok chessboard

I've always thought of PAD protest group that shut down Thailand in recent weeks as pawns, maybe the knight, in a much larger game. Come to think of it, I like the knight analogy because of the way the protest group hopped around "the board" knocking things off the table. One week it was a bridge or a road, then it was government house, finally the airport got knocked out.

The 1984 musical Chess, portrayed a game in Bangkok between a Russian and an American during the height of the Cold War. The script was lame but the music and set design -- a vast chessboard -- was memorable. Today the chessboard, of course, is the whole city of Bankgok.

Much of what we have seen in Bangkok recently amounts to political theater. We watch the city, not knowing how the play will turn out, dimly aware that the those strutting about the city did not write the script. They are merely the actors.

This week The Economist takes a fresh look at the script.

Cost of Iraq war: 300,000 brain damaged Americans

UPDATEDIt seems the war in Iraq has left 0.1% of the US population with brain damage. This report in the LA Times is simply staggering:
A recent Rand Corp. report . . . estimated that 19% of the troops returning from Iraq and Afghanistan, or more than 300,000 people, have come back with traumatic brain injuries. It estimated that treatments for such injuries and the loss in productivity have cost the nation, conservatively, about $554 million.
Something is screwed up about the numbers in this article. Just divide 300,000 people by $600,000,000. We're expected to believe these injuries will only cost the US economy $2,000 per brain-injured American? That's not a "conservative" estimate, that's a ludicrously conservative one.

I would venture to say RAND's cost estimates are off by a multiple of at least 100 -- probably much more.

UPDATE: I have been corresponding with a reader about the figures in the RAND study. The reader wrote:

There's something wrong with the numbers in the Brain Damage story. Assuming that 19% of the US troop returning from Iraq is about 300,000 people would lead to the total number of the US troops deployment at around 1,578,947.
The number sounded high to me too so I checked it out. (It's remarkably hard to find figures indicating the total number of Americans who have served in Iraq). But finally I found the number after much searching. According to the Obama campaign website:
More than 1.75 million servicemen and women have served in Iraq or Afghanistan. [There are only 25,000 Americans serving in Afghanistan, as opposed to 150,000 serving in Iraq.]
So we calculate:
1,750,000 * 19 percent (with brain injuries) = 332,500
Now that we know the number of brain injured is plausible, my original concern about one of the RAND numbers stands. RAND's estimate as to the what the injuries cost the US ($2,000 in lost productivity and medical care per brain injury) remains a ridiculously low figure.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Thailand, not Canada, faces a dangerous crisis

First, two quotes that had been posted as comments on a previous post:
Jotman: Canada .... thriving with a tried and proven democratic system.

Bosun:
Canada's government is on it's way out after only two months.
Canada faces a political crisis. But the severity of the crisis ought to be examined in context. At present, Canada faces a relatively mild constitutional crisis relative to the struggles the vast northern country has faced in the recent past concerning the question of Quebec separatism. Today's impasse is comparable, but far less difficult, than the situation the United States faced following the 2000 election vote. But it is natural to try to compare Canada's constitutional difficulties with Thailand's recent experience.

However, the analogy is not such a good one. The Canadian Prime Minister, who leads the minority government, has quite disingenuously called the opposition parties' move to form a coalition government "undemocratic." This kind of language has been used recently by Thais, but with far more justification.

For a party with a minority of seats in the country's parliament to presume to govern as if it had a majority -- as Prime Minister Harper's government has -- is presumptuous, but not undemocratic. For opposition parties to seek to form a coalition government that includes separatists -- after assured voters they would not do so -- may seem presumptuous to some, but again, it is not -- as Harper claims -- "undemocratic" for them to attempt to do so. According to the rules of Canada's democratic system, it's up to Canada's governor general to decide which of two presumptuous groups in Canadian politics should get its way. The Governor General will likely either ask the Prime Minister to call an election or to allow the coalition group to govern.

The Canadian example shows that democracy allows for leadership upgrades. There is no need to suffer any interruption of the air transportation services.

What is the difference between Thailand and Canada? It's not merely a question of degrees, but of climate. The Canadians are working within the democratic system, but members of the Thai opposition movement put their hands into the fire.

Photos: © Douglas Morton / APMS. Used with permission. Thai pro-government demonstrators wear red and white -- the colors of the Canadian flag. Sadly, Thailand's political difficulties are far more severe than the political impasse facing Canadians, where the democratic system has been stretched, but not to the breaking point as in Thailand recently.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Implications for China of Thailand's anti-democratic movement

Gideon Rachman, blogging at FT, looks at the implications of the success of the PAD movement in Thailand for China:

The middle-class backers of the PAD hate the fact that under universal suffrage, the votes of the rural poor in the north of Thailand are usually decisive. They see this as a formula for corruption and pork-barrel politics. Hence, their desire to roll back democracy.

The implications for China are fascinating. There too the urban middle-class seem to be emerging as a conservative force, suspicious of democracy and the peasant power that it might unleash.*

Peasants are not what they use to be. Equipped with television and mobile phones, rural people have been witness to the power grab that unfolded in Bangkok courtrooms, government buildings, and airport terminals over the course of the past six months, deposing a democratically elected government.

Therefore, I find it difficult to imagine that today's urban revolt** stands a chance of succeeding for very long.

Whether constitutional democracy will return when leaders supported by the rural countryside eventually triumph, however, is by no means certain. In twentieth century China, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, when peasant-backed movements brought down the old elites, their leaders were not kind to the middle classes.

If the Thai middle class allows democracy to fail, it may not return.

*H-tip Sullivan

** It appears to me that what has happened in Bangkok is in essence an elite revolt, but one that has been widely supported by the middle class.

Cambodians and Laotians will be hurt by Thai crisis


Xin Hua reports:
The tourism industry of Cambodia will see a loss of 100 million U.S. dollars this year, if the current chaos in Thailand can't be reversed in three months, Cambodian media on Tuesday quoted minister as saying.

The Thai capital is a regional hub, from where tourists can enter Cambodia, so the situation there can have direct impact over the tourism industry here, Cambodian Tourism Minister Thon Khong told Chinese-language newspaper the Commercial News.

About 1,500 passengers come to Cambodia through Bangkok everyday, making up 30 percent of all daily entry of visitors into the kingdom, he said.

"Each of them is expected to spend 770 dollars per day in the country," he said.

When times were stable, 10 to 12 flights shuttle between Siem Reap, Phnom Penh and Bangkok, but the crisis in the neighboring country has stopped the boom and will lead to loss to Cambodia for sure, he added.

Tourism is one of the pillar industries of Cambodia. Over two million foreign tourist arrivals are expected this year according to the government's original plan, but the number has been scaled down by almost a quarter recently due to the global financial crisis.

Cambodia's GDP was only US $26.19 billion in 2007 (CIA World Factbook). Many Cambodians live on less than a dollar a day.

Needless to say, tourism revenue is also likely to plummet in Laos and -- to the extent anyone visits the country -- Burma. The populations of Burma, Cambodia, and Laos are poorest in Southeast Asia.

In the case of Cambodia and Laos, Vietnam may well find certain of its cities positioned to replace Bangkok as a regional transit hub -- Thailand's loss. Tourism to the region will eventually recover, but whether Thailand will remain the central draw can no longer simply be assumed.

I might add though that tourism has exploded rather too quickly in Cambodia and Laos, and a slowdown in tourism-related development in these countries might have long-lasting ecological benefits.

Photo: By Jotman. Shows Cambodian monks' bath.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Thai court orders ruling party dissolved

Updated

CNN reports: "Thai court orders ruling party dissolved and bans prime minister from politics for five years"

AFP reports:

"The constitutional court unanimously agrees to disband the People Power Party," said Chat Chonlaworn, head of the nine-judge Constitutional Court panel.

"As the court decided to dissolve the People Power Party, therefore the leader of the party and party executives must be banned from politics for five years," he added.

AP reports:
Tuesday's ruling raises hopes that thousands of anti-government protesters will end their siege of the country's two main airports.

Constitutional Court President Chat Chalavorn said the "court has decided to dissolve the party to set a political standard and an example."

He said "dishonest political parties undermine Thailand's democratic system."
The BBC reportmentions that ". . . under the constitution most of its MPs can keep their seats under another party name, and should be able to form another government, correspondents say."

Update: Straights Times reporter is live blogging at the courthouse where many pro-government demonstrators have gathered. Also, Bangkok Pundit has further updates.

Photo: © Douglas Morton / APMS. Used with permission. Shows Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawa, who has just been banned from politics along with other party leaders, at the Emergency Cabinet Meeting on the afternoon of 27 Nov. 2008 at the Chiang Mai Provincial Government office.

Documentary about 2007 Burmese monks' protest wins international prize


Democratic Voice of Burma reports that 'Burma VJ – Reporting from a closed country', by filmmaker Anders Østergaard has won the International Documentary Festival Amsterdam's 'Joris Ivens' prize.

The film "tells the struggles of how a reporter covered the unfolding events in Burma" during the September 2007 protests. The article notes that "the Burmese journalist whom Anders Østergaard follows in his film is a video reporter of the Oslo-based Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB)." About eighty percent of the film consists of video clips shot during the protests by various Burmese. The DVB reports that "the 120 minute film will continue competing in various film festivals in Europe and will later be released for screening in theatres around the world."

A prospect not mentioned in the press releases, it seems to me that Burma is where the Anders Østergaard film is likely to have a lasting impact. I took the above photoin Burma in October 2007. It depicts Burmese gathered at a restaurant to view a pirated DVD movie. The Østergaard film will similarly attract a lot of viewers in Burma, though they are unlikely to view it in open street venues like this one.

My reports on Burma 2007 are here.

Thai Constitutional Court ruling on dissolution of ruling party

UPDATE: 13:00 Bangkok time

"Thai court orders ruling party dissolved and bans prime minister from politics for five years," CNN reports.

See here for more.

UPDATED:
10:00 Bangkok time

The Times reports on a grenade explosion at Don Mueang airport:

An anti-government protester has been killed and antoher 22 wounded in a grenade attack on a Bangkok airport. . . .

The blast at Don Mueang came hours before hundreds of pro government supporters sealed off Bangkok's Constitutional Court, forcing it to move.

Judges will decide as early as this afternoon whether to disolve the three party coalition government for electoral fraud.

Pro-government supporters, wearing their signal red shirts and headbands reading "Love Thaksin' have gathered en masse around the court building, setting up makeshift stages on trucks.

They are faced off against hundreds of police and soldiers who are deployed around the building as fears of violent clahses between pro and anti government supporters grow.

Even befor the Court announces its verdict, government MPs have declared it a "coup in disguise" and promised their supporters will oppose it.

Mr Somchai will be forced to step down and banned from politics for five years along with all other leaders of his People's Power Party and executives if the court dissolves the PPP.

Some government MPS say they will join another party and form a government if the coalition is dissolved.

It's 08:25 in Bangkok, 01:25 in London, 20:25 in NY City

Matichon reports that the time and place of the announcement of the Constitutional Court ruling concerning the possible dissolution of the governing PPP Party of Thailand has been (slightly) changed.

Rather than 09:30, the announcement will take place at 10:00 Tuesday. And the location of the announcement has been changed to the Administrative Court building. There was talk that pro-government demonstrators would be surrounding the Constitutional Court building.

The Thai-language paper also reports that most likely the court will announce the disbandment of three political parties -- PPP, Chart Thai, and Machimathipathai -- of the ruling coalition.

A well-connected Thai source has informed me that the government may choose to dissolve parliament, but it would have to do so before the Constitutional Court ruling is handed down (in 90 minutes). Alternatively, the source speculates that the other coalition parties might join the opposition Democrats and form a new government. Thirdly, in the event of dissolution, another possibility the source presented was that a new government would be formed by the remaining parties that had been members of the governing coalition. In the third scenario, the office of Prime Minister would go to one of three figures: Police Captain Charlerm (now Health Minister), Mingkwaun (now Industry Minister?), or Apichai (Deputy Speaker of the House).

Concerning the second option, this Bangkok Post article explored the PPP's option to disolve parliament, [update: Bangkok Pundit has a more recent analysis of this option and its chances (not good) of going ahead]. An article in the Nation had included speculation along the lines mentioned to me in the third point above.

Undeterred by crisis, Russian tourists flood Thailand

Jotman reader Sanjuro writes:
I read in the Kommersant that Russian tourists are still arriving in Thailand in large numbers, apparently using the military airport Utapao near Pataya... Business as usual for some.
Are they coming to rescue Victor Bout?

Legendary arms dealer Victor Bout, presently locked up in a Bangkok jail, faces extradition hearings at the end of December. Whereas the Americans want him extradited to the US, Russia has voiced objections to the US request. Sanjuro recently translated a rare interview with Bout for Jotman readers.

Tourists fleeing Bangkok troubles head for Southern Provinces

There is something strange -- alarming even -- about this story. The Bangkok Post reports:
In Hat Yai, Songkhla's commercial district, a large of number of foreign tourists arrived to board planes out of the country. The stranded tourists have headed to Hat Yai, from where they can fly or go overland to Malaysia and Singapore and return to their home countries from there. "Several hundred buses to Malaysia and Singapore are fully booked.
The newspaper report talks about how tourists can "go overland from Hat Yai" to Malaysia. I have made the trip myself, though not recently. I do not think overland travel through the Southern Provinces especially advisable, considering the insurgency. The article continues:
The tourists have been advised to come to Hat Yai for flights to Malaysia or Singapore and then return home," said Kriangkrai Samphankul, chairman of the Phatthalung tourism association. "But some are taking the opportunity to explore Hat Yai as well while they are here."
At least in Bangkok tourists have not been the targets of violence. But the same cannot necessarily be said of Hat Yai over the past several years:
  • The first big bomb in Hat Yai . . . Hat Yai Airport, Carrefour Superstore and various night spots in town, killing two people and injuring 30. (April 3, 2005)
  • At least four people were killed and 82 were injured. Among those killed were a Malaysian, a Canadian and two Thai people. (Sept. 16, 2006)
  • Seven coordinated bomb attacks left Songkhla's popular tourist centre of Had Yai reeling last night. They injured 13 people, including one women whom police said was in a serious condition. (May 28, 2007)
Who would have thought that foreign tourists would start flocking to a region of Thailand that has been a virtual war zone for several years?

___
See Also: My other recent posts about the Bangkok Airport crisis and the PAD demonstrations that have rocked Thailand.
Maps: Dr Srisompob Jitpiromsri and Panyasak Sobhonvasu, "Unpacking Thailand's southern conflict: The poverty of structural explanations" Critical Asian Studies 38:1 (2006), p95-117 at p109 (academic access only) via Bangkok Pundit and NY Times.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Thaksin in border town of Koh Kong, Cambodia



Thai Rath reports that convicted and exiled former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin is in the Cambodian border town of Koh Kong (hat-tip Bangkok Pundit).

An interview conducted last week with Thaksin was published in Arabian Business this weekend. Also, journalist Thomas Crampton recently interviewed Thaksin. A video of the Crampton interview was posted on Crampton's blog this weekend:



In an article published last week in The Nation which described the Thaksin interview with Arabian Business, it was reported that Thaksin had vowed to return to politics (this post). Judging by the report of his appearance in Cambodia, that day may arrive sooner than almost anyone might have anticipated.

Perhaps the most memorable line from the interview (see the Arabian Business article) was when Thaksin said:
"The coup is still there - it has been transformed from a military coup to a judicial coup."
Many believe that any judicial coup will further be entrenched this week when the Constitutional Court rules on whether the governing Thaksin-aligned PPP party should be dissolved. See my previous post.

Thailand: court ruling might diffuse airport crisis

UPDATED

A Constitutional Court ruling could diffuse the crisis in Thailand, reports Bloomberg:

Some government supporters have threatened to surround the Constitutional Court tomorrow, when judges will rule on whether to dissolve the ruling People Power Party and two coalition partners for vote buying. A guilty verdict would force Somchai and dozens of party executives to step down, and may prompt protesters to leave the airports.

“This is a coordinated effort to overthrow the government, though it is made to look like justice being done,” said Veera Musikapong, a pro-government leader. “This is a coup in disguise.”

Non-executive members of the parties set to be disbanded, which account for more than half of the 480 lawmakers in Parliament, may then join a new party created to receive pro- Thaksin politicians.

If the parties are dissolved, lawmakers would need to hold a parliamentary session to pick a new prime minister, while anti- government protesters may look to install an appointed government.

“Things should get better if the court verdict turns out that way,” Suriyasai Katasila, one of the PAD leaders, told the Channel 9 television station late yesterday. “If that happens, it may help defuse the political crisis,” Suriyasai said.

“The PAD wants an interim administration of some kind, but there are no constitutional provisions for that,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute for Strategic and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. “They would have to have constitutional clauses suspended by the courts unless the army seizes power.”

See my previous post, "Thailand airport crisis: what happens next?"

Update 1: Bangkok Pundit also blogged on this article. You can read his comments here. BP argues that the pro-government demonstrators should avoid activities that might be seem as intimidating (such as surrounding a courthouse). Indeed, it would be foolish for them to cross the line. If both sides show contempt for the rule of law, this can only make PAD's outrageous behavior seem less so.

Update 2: The Independent has an article about Sunday's pro-government rally in Bangkok attended by at least 20,000.