Pakistan complicit in Nov. attack on Mumbai?

UPDATED

Certain Russian parallels to the recent attacks on Mumbai inform Russian Jotman reader Sanjuro's interpretation of events in India. In particular, Sanjuro has been pondering whether Pakistan might have played a role in the attacks on Mumbai. Sanjuro writes:

To me, the timing of the attacks could not be more unfortunate for the most of the official Pakistani establishment. Having just survived a severe political crisis and fighting their own islamist insurgents in the north, the last thing they would need was a deterioration of relations with India. What do you think about this?

I have doubts because I have parallels with Russia. In the aftermath of the Nord-Ost and Beslan school hostage crises, Putin et al were too quick to blame "forces outside the country", - it just seems like a typical pattern.

I was amazed just how badly equipped some of the Indian rapid response teams were: no bullet-proof vest, no communication, some riot gear totally useless in the situation, standard army issue rifles hardly appropriate in a crowded city. . . .

I think Sanjuro raises an important -- and quite general -- point here.

Certainly, if India's leaders are anything like their recent American counterparts, they will tend to downplay the vital question of domestic preparedness and exploit the tragedy as a means by which to consolidate public support for whatever policies would further their own ambitions.

UPDATE: Sanjuro has forwarded me a further comment:

. . . Indian public opinion perhaps makes this case different from the Russian incidents. I recall that in Russia in 2002 (Nord-Ost siege) and 2004 (Beslan school) although the authorities were quick to suspect foreign roots, public opinion generally linked the events to the homegrown Chechen guerrillas (not exactly correctly, as it turned out in the Beslan case). I read some Indian comments on the Economist, FT etc and although they appear to be quite moderate towards Pakistan, my sample is unlikely to be representative of the general mood of the populace.

An Indian blogger I quoted here observed that "94.6% of sixty thousand respondents at NDTV.com say it is time for India to enact stringent laws to curb terror." I doubt the survey was scientific, and in the immediate aftermath most citizens could be expected to emphasize security.

I think the example of the United States and the excesses under Bush sets a "healthy bad example" that Indians can point to in working out their own response to the tragedy. To paraphrase what French Pres. Sarkozy supposedly told Putin in early August: "You could simply go in and conquer all of Georgia, but then you would probably end up like George Bush."

Some airlines not refunding fares for passengers stranded in Bangkok

The Bangkok Post updates us on the travel situation in Thailand:

Almost 100,000 foreign tourists are still unable to return home, but the number of passengers stranded by the closure of Suvarnabhumi airport may double or triple if the situation is prolonged.

U-tapao airport has been used as a gateway for sending foreign visitors home. As of yesterday afternoon, six flights had taken off. The flights will increase to 15 today and 48 tomorrow. Aircraft capacity is about 300 passengers per flight.

Asia Hotel, JW Marriott, Maenam Hotel and Centara Grand would serve as check-in venues. Airlines will announce hotels for their check-ins today. Imperial Queen's Park and Holiday Inn are on stand-by to accept passengers checking in for flights. Passengers would then be taken by bus to U-tapao. . . .

Airlines showing readiness to use U-tapao include Lufthansa, EVA Air, Scandinavian, and Canadian airlines.

About 2,000 buses would take passengers to U-tapao, a trip of about three hours. U-tapao will also be for incoming flights from abroad. Stranded Thai travellers should contact their local Thai embassy or Thai Airways agent.

They can also fly to Hong Kong, Singapore or Kuala Lumpur, and from there to Chiang Mai, Phuket and Krabi.

Thai Travel Agents Association president Charoen Wangananont said . . . tour agents are facing problems as airlines from China refuse to give refunds. "They say it's not their mistake, but Thailand's problem. Now operators are negotiating to postpone flights instead of cancelling," he said.

If you know the names of any airlines that are not refunding passenger fares, please let me know.

Update: I actually meant for the above post to appear at Jot Around the World (my travel blog), but it ended up here by accident.

Quote of the day

But we can’t naively carry on. To enjoy life like this, made up of the things we savour from vibrant cities like Bombay, we need to be protected. 94.6% of sixty thousand respondants at NDTV.com say it is time for India to enact stringent laws to curb terror. That’s quite a mandate, but I believe they are wrong. They suggest following the example laid down by the United States after the 11th of September, 2001. This includes a Department for Homeland Security and a Transportation Security Administration. Security is a wonderful word. At times like these, reading it in bold typeface across buildings and on cloth seals pinned to the shoulders of frowning men, it make us feel safe.

- Udayan Tripathi, Sticks and Stones blog

The Boston Globe has a collection of powerful and moving photographs relating to the Mumbai attacks, including a remarkable photo of one young terrorist gunman in a train station.

Picture shows organizational chart for the US Department of Homeland Security, one legacy of the 9/11 attacks.

Thailand airport crisis: what happens next?

Bangkok Pundit weighs Reuter's list of four "next" options for the Kingdom, and adds a fifth of his own. Here they are ordered according to likelihood as ranked by BP:

1. Police storm airport
2. Judicial coup*
4. Military coup
3. King intervenes**
5. PAD protest group backs down

* This is the option BP added to the Reuter's list. BP explains: "PPP is dissolved next week, before HM the King's birthday, then so entity takes over, the so-called judicial coup option." In his most recent post summarizing the events of Friday, BP discusses the resignation of 5 PPP party members. BP quite reasonably surmises that this may be a tactical move to pre-empt next week's possible dissolution of the PPP.

** BP comments "If there is widespread violence with more than 100 people dying then this seems the only chance, but before then less than 5% chance." Andrew Walker at New Mandala asks if the palace has not already expended its quota of political capital on the crisis. Jonathan Head of the BBC asks whether limitations on the physical stamina of the eighty-year old monarch limit the prospects of such intervention.

Personally, I lean toward viewing option #2, "judicial coup," as most probable. It seems to me that this option both saves face and minimizes risk for more powerful figures than any other.

Power shift from Bangkok to Chiang Mai

In early October, I asked "Will Thailand's government relocate to Chiang Mai?" And I noted:

Such a move makes a certain amount of sense. That's because much of the opposition to the PPP led government is concentrated in Bangkok. Chiang Mai, on the other hand, is PPP territory. The anti-democratic PAD-led street demonstrators would surely not be made to feel welcome in Chiang Mai.

But would this actually come to pass? An article in Friday's Bangkok Post provides the answer:

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat will remain in the northern city of Chiang Mai "indefinitely" because of tensions with the military, a government spokesman said.

Somchai was forced to land in Chiang Mai from a trip abroad on Wednesday after anti-government protesters seized control of Bangkok's two airports.

He declared a state of emergency at the airports on Thursday night as rumours of a possible military coup swept the capital, although the army said it was not intervening.

"As there are still uncertainties in the tensions between the government and army, for his safety the prime minister will stay in Chiang Mai," government spokesman Suparat Nakbunnam said.

"He has no schedule to return to Bangkok, he will stay in Chiang Mai indefinitely for his security," Suparat said

As Bangkok Pundit puts it: "The government has, in effect, moved to Chiang Mai."

Chiang Mai is a friendly city. One can hardly blame the Prime Minister for not wanting to return to Bangkok. . . . Whether this is tenable is another matter. Government ministries, foreign embassies, the military, and so on, are all based in Bangkok.

However, I find myself thinking about the question not merely in operational and political terms, but also in strategic terms.

Thinking down the road . . . . In the event of a military coup in Bangkok, might the government find itself in a position still to defend Chiang Mai? Does not a move to Chiang Mai compel any coup-plotters to control a greater number of army battalions? It promises to complicates things for them. And should the elected government in Chiang Mai manage to retain control of military units in the north of the country, might the country find itself divided? Or worse?

US defense strategy vis a vis great powers

James Fallows blogs about a CDI publication entitled, "America's Defense Meltdown." Fallows writes:

. . . from probably the most right-wing of all the authors in the book -- a man whose cubicle wall, in the Senate office building where he worked, was adorned with a poster of Mussolini when I met him in the early 1980s. He is discussing the overall balance between the US Navy and the Russian and Chinese fleets -- especially the looming Chinese "menace" that drives the need for new US ships:

Overwhelming any comparison of fleets is the fact that war with either Russia or China would represent a catastrophic failure of American strategy. Such wars would be disastrous for all parties, regardless of their outcomes. In a world where the most important strategic reality is a non-Marxist "withering away of the state," the United States needs both Russia and China to be strong, successful states. They need the United States to be the same. Defeat of any of the three global powers by another would likely yield a new, vast, stateless region, which is to say a great victory for the forces of the Fourth Generation. No American armed service should be designed for wars our most vital interest dictates we not fight.

This is easier said than done. This vital point brings to mind my theory about the bombastic official US reaction to the Russia-Georgia conflict. I elaborated on it in this post where I blogged:

What was the true meaning of the Russia-Georgia conflict? It concerned the fate of multi-billion dollar US Cold-War era defense procurements: cargo planes, fighter jets, ICBMs, warships, tanks, etc. Such defense contracts will be up for grabs soon after the new US administration takes office. For example, the question as to whether the US should undertake massive upgrades to the nuclear forces will top the defense policy planning. As the Northrop Grumman website explains, "the Air Force is already looking ahead to consider future enhancements to ensure that Minuteman is viable to 2030 and beyond." . . .

. . . the policy to expand NATO and the belligerence of US leaders towards Russia can easily be viewed as part and parcel of an overall defense industry marketing strategy. These initiatives will help to create the impression that the US will have continued need for Cold War era defense industry products and services. The US military-industrial complex had been at a loss for a genuine a long-term raison d'être.

But it may have found one in Russia. . . .

The US armaments industry must never be allowed to dictate US defense policy. The national interest and the interests of those who manage the US defense industry are different.

Best of the Blogs Awards 2008: winners via live-stream video of Berlin ceremony

It's 21:00 in Berlin.

Deutsche Welle is holding this year's BOBs awards ceremony in Germany at present.

Waving Cat (Peter Bihr) who is live-blogging the awards, notes, "The jury member from China wasn't able to be here: Chinese authorities detained him and wouldn't let him come to Germany.
liu xiao?"

Here is a live-stream video of the awards.



Just announced, the Best Video Weblog: Voices of Africa

As I understand it, Voices of Africa hands out cameras to Africans and has them do reports about their lives.

Now it is being announced that the Reporters Without Borders Award for 2008 goes to two women, one Chinese, and a group of Iranian women. Clothilde Le Coz of RSF is announcing the winners.

Clothilde says: "Zeng Jinyan is blogging about her daily life. Her blog is accessible in China -- which is rare. She writes about her daughter. She's writing about great issues, for example, the Olympics. It's in Chinese. Congratulations!"

Zeng Jinyan is the wife of imprisoned Chinese human rights activist Hu Jia (I blogged about Hu Jia here and about he, his wife, and baby here). The BOBs review writes of Zeng Jinyan: "Placed under house arrest, she uses her blog to provide a moving example of living life under the constant surveillance of the Chinese authorities."

Clothilde continues the award presentation: "Also we decided to award the Iranian women at 4 Equality who have worked to improve women's rights in Iran."

The BOBs description of the winning Iranian website reads:

This blog centers on fighting for women's rights and getting rid of discrimination in Iran by collection 1 million signatures on its petition by knocking on doors around the country. The movement, which has grown from the Weblog, has found a wide base of support in Iran, but the blog has been blocked 17 times by the authorities and 48 people associated with it have landed in prison.

Clothilde mentioned how difficult it was for the jury to choose a winner. All of the blogs nominated for the Reporters Without Borders award look interesting. They are listed here.

The awards ceremony continues. . . . Deutsche Well's BOBs is very international, handing out awards to blogs in over a dozen languages and special categories such as RSF award, best video blog, etc.

I will be interesting to read BOBs judge Mark Glaser's reflections on the jury deliberations for the RSF award again this year at the PBS website MediaShift.

Some more winners, via Waving Cat's live-blog:

Best political party blog: politicalpartytome.org
Best ???: http://FreelancerOnline.blogspot.com
Best Spanish blog 233grados.com
Best Dutch blog foodlog.nl
Best Russian blog Radiogrinch.ru:
Best Portuguese blog?: WWW.ELBOBERO.COM
Best funny (blogwurst) blog: maratochka.livejournal.com
Best weblog: from Cuba, Generación Y

Some advice to Thai army leaders should they decide to pull another late-night coup

It's 16:30 in Bangkok.

Bangkok Pundit blogs:

Thai Rath reports that PPP MPs believe there will be a coup tonight and are going to mobolise "red shirts". Also, that all 6 coalition parties agreed to use legal measures against the PAD who have broken the law to try to provoke a coup. PPP MPs have promised to mobolise not less than 20,000 persons per MP.

In Bangkok, MPs from the coalition parties will ask people to bring their cars on the streets or taxis to close roads to prevent a coup. The coalition parties believe a coup will happen tonight..

They are also going to release details of the financial backers of the PAD especially Bangkok Bank and Kasikorn bank.

Bangkok Pundit adds that he is he is hearing of movements by the first army.

Thai Crisis has also blogged about this development, and notes that the Thai Cabinet has been holding a meeting up in the north of the country in the city of Chang Mai.

Fonzi is takes a dark view about the outcome of any impending coup, blogging:

This is probably the worse thing that can happen, because then all bets will be off. I think it will lead to full-blown civil war, because the PPP/Reds won't accept it, and they shouldn't accept it.

And just because there will be a coup doesn't mean the yellows will go home. In fact, this will just empower them more. They will want to dictate the composition of the new government and will make sure that the outcome of a new constitution and new election will be made on their terms.
So you will have the reds fighting the tanks and the yellow and reds going at each other in the streets.

The police are so incompetent and poorly trained that they won't be able to control anything.

Worse, you might have the police and military units fighting each other. I can't see the police backing the military and the PAD after being emasculated and demonized by the Thai media and the PAD after the October 7th incident. . . .

Just now, Bloomberg's Daniel Ten Kate and Rattaphol Onsanit report on the coup development:

Thailand's ruling party called on its supporters to clog Bangkok's streets to prevent a possible coup attempt after Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat rejected army demands that he resign.

``People who have cars and cabbies should drive and block any tanks that may come out if there is a coup,'' Suthin Klangsaeng, a deputy spokesman of the People Power Party, said in comments broadcast on Thai PBS channel. ``Anyone opposing a coup should also take to the streets.''

The government is calling for its supporters to mobilize in the streets to prevent the coup.

I might mention that I toured the streets of Bangkok the night of the last Thai coup Sept. 2006. I saw the coup unfold on the dark streets. Before my eyes tanks and armored vehicles assembled and generals drove by.

My old post gives you an idea of what a (peaceful) late night coup in Bangkok looks like.

As the day winds down in Bangkok, my old advice to the Thai military -- based on my experience live-blogging their last coup -- probably bears repeating:

But just before I headed off a horn sounded. A car swirved at high speed around the tank, narrowly missing it. The tank situated in the very center of the intersection was all but invisible to an unwary driver. (Note to Thai military: distribute reflective plates for your tanks for the next coup).

If you are in Bangkok tonight, play it safe.
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Photo: by Jotman shows Bangkok the night of the last coup, September 19, 2006.

Mumbai terror attacks: live streaming video

IBN/CNN has a live video coverage here of the Mumbai bombings. Reception and voice clarity is exceptional.

- BBC estimates that 16 separate sites that were attacked (Twitter)
- 150 Wedding guests may be held as hostages inside the Taj hotel still, which is apparently burning down.
- A group of Israelis was targeted.
- Hotel area of Mumbai frequented by celebrities, foreigners, and politicians.
- Taj Hotel now under control of security forces.

Mumbai terrorist attacks of Nov 26: Al Qaeda involvement?

I think this is an extraordinary interview. The man says that the terrorists were singling out Americans and Brits. It looks as if either Al Qaeda or some such like-minded group may be implicated in the attack.

The massive scale of the attacks is another reason to suspect that an international terror network may have organized and funded the attacks.

Terror attacks in Bombay (Mumbai)

It's 04:15 in Bangkok, 02:45 in Mumbai, 16:15 in NY City.

CNN reports: "Gunmen have targeted seven locations in south Mumbai, including two luxury hotels. A local government official says at least 78 people have been killed. One police official said his force was still engaged in a gunfight at the hotels. Hostages are being held, police told CNN-IBN."

But Tweeter, not CNN is leading the coverage. First some blog reports coming in from Mumbai:

• MB blog reports that "Reports are coming in that a lot of American and British tourists are being held hostage at the Oberoi Hotel. Other reports point to similar situation at the Taj Hotel."

• MB also reports, "Hostages are lobbing grenades out of the windows at both the Taj and Oberoi as reported by bystanders."

List of targets from the Times of India (via MB):

The attack locations so far are

Location	Type of Attack
Leopold Cafe, Colaba	Shooting
Hotel Taj Intercontinental	Shooting and explosions
Hotel Trident (Oberoi)	Shooting and explosions
Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus	Shooting
Mazagaon Docks	Explosion
Vile Parle suburb, North Mumbai	Explosion

Twitter reports:

There is lot of talk on the blogosphere about how useful Twitter has been in getting out reports.

studioonedj: The #mumbai is a new level of citizens breaking news. Those watching the feed are watching history.

vlkun: is amazed at how much more effective twitter and flickr are than CNN or the mainstream news about the attacks.

dkris: RT @ahmaurya: RT @rotkapchen: HC! CNN Reporter just said, "We went to Twitter to see how this was unfolding" !!! #mumbai Twitter rocks

Significant tweets:

• shriansh: Times of india: 80 dead, 900 (yes, 900) dead in #mumbai terror attack. http://lin.cr/bg9 thanks @vijaykillu
  
• arunnr: Feels like shooting all the Indian Press for the way they are hindering relief workers in Mumbai!
  
• maharana: RT @Asfaq: #mumbai NDTV reporting that all Taj Hotel guests have come out safely to Regal cinema
• thepete: r/t @BreakingNewsOn Unknown group "Deccan Mujahideen" is claiming responsibility for the attacks in Mumbai
• aeropolowoman: RT asteris: RT @BreakingNewz PLEASE RETWEET #Mumbai Blood needed at JJ Hospital
• rainmakertom: RT @BreakingNewz #mumbai Terrorists car jack Police Jeep. Have access to task force information, radio broadcasts
• retweet @shonali : IBN reporting another huge, high intensity blast from inside the Oberoi #mumbai. This is after the cops went in. 39 minutes ago from web

OK I'm signing off on this post now. It's now 03:15 in Mumbai and 16:45 in NY City.

Update: there is a Wikipedia page for the attacks set up here.

Thai Prime Minister Somchai will not take orders from army chief

The PM just called the army chief's bluff. Reuters reports:

Thailand's Cabinet is to hold an emergency meeting to discuss ''measures'' against protesters in Bangkok who have broken the law, Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat said in a national television address.

Somchai also refused to heed an army call for him to step down and call a snap election, saying his government was democratically elected and would continue to work for the good of the country.

If Thai army chief Gen. Anupong wants to tell the Prime Minister what to do, it looks like Anupong will have to stage a coup.

Meanwhile, Reuters also reports that in Chang Mai -- largely pro-government territory (where the Thai PM's plane was recently diverted to land) -- "A gang of government supporters . . . shot dead an anti-government activist, police said, as a political crisis threatened to explode into civil unrest. The gang dragged the victim, a man in his 50s whose son ran a small anti-government radio station, from his car before shooting him, police lieutenant-colonel Atipol Thongdaeng said." (Reuters)

Political scientist Chris Baker, speaking on CNN, says he did not expect the Thai Prime Minister to resign or call an election. He says that "sideline" elements have been perpetrating the escalating violence:

Thai army chief Gen. Anupong tells government to call election

The NY Times reports:

• A government spokesman, Gen. Anupong Paochinda told reporters after meeting with business leaders: “The government should return power to the people."

• Nattawut Saikuar, rejected the recommendation on Thai television late Wednesday. “The prime minister has said many times that he will not quit or dissolve Parliament,” Mr. Nattawut said. “He has been democratically elected. That still stands.”

• Sondhi Limthongkul, one of the leaders of the protests, told a crowd of cheering supporters in front of the airport’s departure hall. “You must quit first and then we will sit and talk.”

Meanwhile, the Thai PM, unable to land at Bangkok's main airport, landed in Chang Mai instead, to the frustration of protesters who had gathered at other regional airports where they hoped to intercept the returning leader. (Chang Mai is a city that is traditionally supportive of the PPP Party which leads the governing coalition).

Bangkok airport hijacked

It's 16:00 in Bangkok and 09:00 in London

One of Asia's most important airports has been successfully hijacked by an anti-government mob. The Sydney Morning Herald reports on a startling development:

"The PAD has completely taken control of Suvarnabhumi Airport so any airline that wants to take off or land must seek permission from us directly,'' said Chaiwat Sinswuwong, one of the leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy.

The PAD demonstrators who surrounded Bangkok's Suvarnbumi airport have taken over the control tower according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. (Hat-tip to Bangkok Pundit).

BP also reports that according to the Thai newspaper Matichon, Thai army chief Anupong "has called a meeting of all government departments, ministries, and leaders of business associations, bank presidents etc for 2pm at Army HQ."

I expect Bangkok Pundit will be updating on the developments in the Thai capital through the afternoon and evening.

How much does the US financial crisis bailout cost?

Ritholtz blogs:

If we add in the Citi bailout, the total cost now exceeds $4.6165 trillion dollars. People have a hard time conceptualizing very large numbers, so let’s give this some context. The current Credit Crisis bailout is now the largest outlay In American history.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research crunched the inflation adjusted numbers. The bailout has cost more than all of these big budget government expenditures – combined:

• $12.7 billion, $115.3 billion* - Marshall Plan
• $15 million, $217 billion* - Louisiana Purchase
• $36.4 billion, $237 billion* - Race to the Moon
• $153 billion, $256 billion* - S&L Crisis
• $54 billion, $454 billion* - Korean War
• $551b, $597 billion* - Invasion of Iraq
• $111 billion, $698 billion* - Vietnam War
• $416.7 billion, $851.2 billion* - NASA
• $32 billion (Est), $500 billion (Est)* - The New Deal

$3.92 trillion* - TOTAL
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* Inflation adjusted cost

Yes, it's certainly a lot of money. Getting out of this mess is likely going to cost more than that, partly because the people now charged with spending it seem clueless.*

However, those who are questioning the need for deficit spending at a time like this are standing on shaky (macroeconomic) ground.** We don't want another Great Depression. And it wasn't until the governments funded World War II that the world finally dug its way out of that one.

This time, the idea is to spend as if we are in a war now -- lifting the global economy -- so we avoid going through another depression. A depression would likely create all the conditions for real wars to happen. Either we "spend smart" now on something worthwhile, or "spend stupid" later on wars.

The money has got to be spent wisely. Governments should help citizens to invest in productive activities that will create new assets, rather than just prompting consumer spending on wasteful throw-away goods. Now is the time to build the infrastructure necessary for the energy-efficient global society of the future. That's surely what it means to spend smart.

__

* UPDATE: It seems the he lame-duck president even managed to screw up the City Group bailout. Krugman blogs, "A bailout was necessary — but this bailout is an outrage: a lousy deal for the taxpayers, no accountability for management, and just to make things perfect, quite possibly inadequate, so that Citi will be back for more."

** I heard Republican Pat Buchanan say on television today that "high US government" spending created the financial mess we are in. That's rubbish. Financial deregulation, the growth and bursting of a financial bubble, and -- attendant to all this -- the creation of dodgy paper assets lies at the root of the financial mess.

Hat-tip: Sullivan

Thanksin vows return to politics. Well why not?

The NY Times reports:

The underlying conflict in Thailand is over the question of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s role in Thai politics. Mr. Thaksin, deposed in a coup two years ago and convicted in absentia last month for abuse of power in a highly politicized trial, now reportedly says he is eager to return to Thailand.

“With me at the helm I can bring confidence quickly back to Thailand,” Mr. Thaksin was quoted saying in an interview with Arabian Business, a magazine based in the United Arab Emirates, where he is believed to be in exile. “We have to find a mechanism under which I can go back, that is why I must tell you that I will go back into politics.”

With Mr. Thaksin still abroad, protestors say their first goal is to remove the current government, which it accuses of being Mr. Thaksin’s proxy.

I would hesitate to identify Thaksin as the "underlying conflict" in Thai politics. Certainly, the PAD (People's Alliance for Democracy) protesters have made the case that Thaksin is the root of all evil, they have painted him as the source of the "underlying conflict."

However, if the conflict can be personified from one angle, a balanced personification of the forces at work in modern Thailand might include General Prem who is leader of the HM the King's Privy Council. This is close to the way the HM the king's (very unofficial) biographer Paul Handley and some others have described the personal dimensions of the conflict.*

Nevertheless, the NY Times' description of Thaksin as standing at the center of the conflict raises an interesting point. One has to ask whether the persistent personification of Thaksin as the "root problem" by PAD has not given Thaksin an opening. Judging by his remarks to Arabian Business, Thaksin would appear to have turned a corner, having now decided to go on the offensive. Thaksin is reported to have told the interviewer:

The country is going down deeply. The confidence is not there. The trust amongst foreign community is not there. The poor people in rural areas are in difficulty.

If Thailand without Thaksin borders on anarchy, could the return of Thaksin really make things so much worse? Assuming the charges could be dropped, Thaksin can now vow to return for a higher purpose than furthering his personal political or business ambitions. His newfound "higher" mission will be to 1) provide the government with the strong leadership it lacks and 2) bring security and order to the kingdom.

Thaksin has his enemies to thank for this opening. Don't be surprised if oneday conspiracy-minded Thais look back at the PAD demonstrations of 2008 as a "Thaksin plot."
___
*How else might the underlying conflict in Thai politics be described?

• royalists Vs democrats
• urban Vs rural
• rich Vs poor

Perhaps the breakdown includes an economic sector conflict:

• old economy (construction, newspapers, etc.) Vs new economy (telecoms, consumer goods and services, electronic media, etc.)
  

PAD protest leader Sondhi owns a newspaper chain. The crown is the largest shareholder in the country's biggest cement company. On the other side, Thaksin has invested heavily in telecoms and television -- and has striven to encourage a spirit of entrepreneurship. Mind you, I'm just thinking through the last point here as I write it . . .

Bangkok Airport haults departure flights due to anti-government protests

In the latest in a series of demonstrations which began in late May, and had escalated to the point of crisis by early September, protesters have occupied Suvarnabhumi International Airport in Bangkok. This move has led to the cancellation of international departure flights.

The photo at right is from the LA Times. The protesters (wearing yellow to indicate their support for the monarchy) are pictured blocking the sidewalk and street outside the main departure hall.

UPI reports:

Protesters seeking to block the return of Thai Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat from an international summit in Peru occupied the passenger terminal of Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport and blocked surrounding roads, partially closing the facility, airport officials told CNN.

The protesters carried golf clubs and long wooden sticks, fighting with cab drivers while police -- who have largely avoided confrontations with protesters -- attempted to restore order, the broadcaster said.

Here is the CNN video of showing protesters firing handguns at police and beating a motorcycle-taxi driver:



The NY Times reports on the scenes depicted in the above video:

As the protesters occupied the highway to the airport on the outskirts of the city, traffic to the airport slowed to a trickle. Separately, elsewhere in Bangkok, a group of demonstrators fired handguns and beat government supporters with metal rods in fierce clashes, injuring six people, according to video footage shown on Thai television. City emergency services officials put the number higher, saying at least 11 people were hurt, according to Reuters.

The incursion into Suvarnabhumi airport, as the capital’s new airport is known, represented a bold and serious challenge to the government, which in recent days has sought to placate the protestors and has tried to avoid confrontation with them.

Bangkok Pundit has observed that the numbers of protesters showing up for recent demonstrations have fallen short of predictions of PAD leaders, and the NY Times reports that protesters seem to be losing public support. The major push we see at this time might be a last-ditch effort, a doubling down, a violent last spasm of faltering movement.

Will the Thai government call upon the military to respond? Will the military obey orders from the government?

Financial crisis hits France

The NY Times reports that France's cafe's have been struck a double blow:

“The French are no longer eating and drinking like the French. They are eating and drinking like the Anglo-Saxons,” the British and the Americans.

“They eat less and spend less time at it,” Mr. Picolet said.

People grab a sandwich at lunchtime and eat as they walk or sit at their desks. They stand in line to buy prepackaged espresso sachets, to drink coffee at home, or have coffee at the office, at the boss’s expense.

This sounds like the kind of omen Nostradamus must have warned everybody about. When the French start imitating the culture of the Anglo-Saxons, you know something is seriously amiss in the world.

Man bites panda

CNN reports that a panda in China recently bit a man who climbed into his cage. The report mentions previous panda attacks in China:

Last year, a panda at the Beijing Zoo attacked a teenager, ripping chunks out of his legs, when he jumped a barrier while the bear was being fed.

The same panda was in the news in 2006 when he bit a drunk tourist who broke into his enclosure and tried to hug him while he was asleep. The tourist retaliated by biting the bear in the back.

I had not heard the "man bites panda" one before.

Sami Al-Haj, Al Jazeera camerman

What hath the monsters done?

Thursday, a right-wing US judge decided that the Bush Administration had no grounds whatsoever to continue holding five Algerians held at Guantanamo and ordered their immediate release. Greewnald blogs:

The five Algerians were joined for most of their stay at Guantanamo by Al Jazeera camerman Sami Al-Haj, who was abducted in 2001 while attempting to enter Afghanistan to cover the war there for Al Jazeera, imprisoned at Guantanamo without ever being charged with any acts of terrorism, questioned almost exclusively not about Al Qaeda, but about the work of Al Jazeera, and then, after more than six years, unceremoniously released with no charges or findings of any wrongdoing whatsoever. As Reporters Without Borders summarized:

Regularly tortured and subjected to close to 200 interrogation sessions by his jailers, Sami Al-Haj began a hunger strike on January 7, 2007, in protest against his detention and to demand that his rights be respected. In retaliation, his jailers force-fed him on several occasions. His lawyer, Clive Stafford-Smith, who visited him in July last year, said he had lost about 40 pounds and was suffering from serious intestinal problems. He was also subject to bouts of paranoia and was finding it increasingly difficult to communicate normally.

The same bipartisan political class which endorsed all of this and which -- to this day -- wants to deny detainees in U.S. custody any rights to challenge their detention in a court of law, now all agree in perfect unison that it's time to let bygones be bygones; that any high U.S. officials who broke the law in spawning these injustices should be immunized; and that the crimes that were committed by government officials over the last eight years should be ignored.

For the Bush Administration to have kept a journalist behind for years and years -- while abusing him and asking him questions about the TV station he works for -- defies humanity and reason. Those who sanctioned the detainment and of Sami Al-Haj are war almost certainly war criminals. And these people must be accorded what they denied Sami Al-Haj: Justice.

The Eleven Voluntary Initiatives of Ted Turner

I recently called Ted Turner a global citizen. The founder of CNN and the Goodwill Games, giver of $1 billion to UN, mover of massive nature conservation initiatives, backer of major initiatives to stop proliferation and eliminate nuclear weapons has certainly earned the title.

Tonight I have been reading Ted Turner's new autobiography Call Me Ted. The bio is unusual in that Turner invited former friends and enemies to contribute passages, which are sprinkled throughout the book. Some of these contributors are more candid than others, such as the friend who first broke it to Ted that his former buddy, Levin of Time Warner, had "stabbed him in the back." In the same volume is Levin's own contribution. Jane Fonda also gets to have her say.

If you read Call Me Ted at first you may be baffled by his apparent lack of grudges. Turner evidently does not feel the need to bad mouth anyone in his biography -- turning its pages over to old rivals.

Because Turner has has -- for decades -- lived for ideas bigger than his job description or bank account, it's clear that he few rivals. However much his net worth has fallen recently, global citizen Ted puts every other media mogul on the planet to shame.

At the end of the book you will find "Turner's Eleven Voluntary Initiatives." They are worth thinking about.

1. I promise to have love and respect for the planet earth and living things thereon, especially my fellow species--humankind.
2. I promise to treat all persons everywhere with dignity, respect, and friendliness.
3. I promise to have no more than two children, or no more than my nation suggests.
4. I promise to use my best efforts to save what is left of our natural world in its untouched state and to restore damaged or destroyed areas where practical.
5. I pledge to use as little nonrenewable resources as possible.
6. I pledge to use as little toxic chemicals, pesticides, and other poisons as possible and to work for their reduction by others.
7. I promise to contribute to those less fortunate than myself, to help them become self-sufficient and enjoy the benefits of a decent life, including clean air and water, adequate food and health care, housing, education, and individual rights.
8. I reject the use of force, in particular military force, and back United Nations arbitration of international disputes.
9. I support the total elimination of all nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons of mass destruction.
10. I support the United Nations and its efforts to collectively improve the conditions of the planet.

The eleventh Voluntary Initiative, which Turner says he added in 2008, is a commitment to use renewable sources of energy and not contribute to global warming.
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Photo by NW Birding shows Ted Turner's Ranch which is a nature and bison conservatory.

What makes a good interview?

Fallows blogs:

In my experience, 99% of the difference between a good interviewer (or a good panel moderator) and a bad one lies in what that person is doing while the interviewee talks. If the interviewer is mainly using that time to move down to the next item on the question list, the result will be terrible. But if the interviewer is listening, then he or she is in position to pick up leads ("Now, that's an intriguing idea, tell us more about..."), to look for interesting tensions ("You used to say X, but now it sounds like..."), to sum up and give shape to what the subject has said ("It sounds as if you're suggesting..."). And, having paid the interviewee the respect of actually listening to the comments, the interviewer is also positioned to ask truly tough questions without having to bluster or insult.

If you have this standard in mind -- is the interviewer really listening? and thinking? -- you will be shocked to see how rarely broadcast and on-stage figures do very much of either.

I agree.

Somali pirate crisis: West ignored Iranian warning

The Economist reports:

The threat to merchant shipping in the region is now greater than it has been for decades. The taking of the leviathan 330-metre Saudi-owned Sirius Star in the high seas fully 450 nautical miles (833km) off the Kenyan coast, on Saturday, shows that all tankers heading to or from the Arabian Gulf and all cargo vessels using the Suez Canal are now at risk from pirates, no matter what course they hold to.

The article continues:

The geographical range open to the pirates gives them (generally) the upper hand over foreign navies deployed to stop them. So, too, does their ingenious use of fishing boats for satellite cover. Warships can easily intercept captured vessels and, under a United Nations resolution agreed upon earlier this year, chase them back into Somali waters. But it is rare for them to stop the pirates boarding vessels and taking crews hostage in the first place. And by luring warships into Somali waters to watch over captured vessels, the pirates will continue to stretch their operations further south towards the Comoros and the Mozambique Channel–once the hunting grounds of late 17th century English pirates.

The Economist notes that the capture of the Saudi owned supertanker Sirius Star ought to teach the Saudis to keep their promises:

For the Saudis, its loss is a reminder of a problem that has been festering just across the Red Sea for some time: Somali analysts say that Saudi Arabia has made big promises of aid and assistance to Somalia, but has delivered nothing of value.

On a more ominous note, The Economist speculates that the pirates' recent successful assault on supertanker Sirius Star could inspire Islamic terrorist groups to pay pirates to attack and destroy supertankers in the future.

Was this crisis unexpected?

It was not. The Iranian Foreign Ministry raised alarm about this problem a few months back, as I blogged here. At the time, it struck me that the need to solve the Somali pirate problem served as an example of one of many areas in which US and Iranian interests naturally coincide. The Iranians had warned back in September:

“The major powers’ negligence in tackling this issue and their efforts to put the blame on others… will intensify the insecurity.”

Had this warning been heeded, perhaps the pirates' ambitions could have been tempered, and the potentially calamitous ramifications of their present successes might have be averted.

Thailand's opposition party moves to clamp down on free speech

The Nation reports:

A group of MPs from the opposition Democrat Party Tuesday proposed a draft legislation that would penalise people spreading defamatory remarks or contemptuous tones against the monarchy on the Internet or via computers.

The proposed law would also punish those who wrongly accuse or attempt to frame up others of such a wrongdoing.

The Democrats' move followed an increase in content on the Internet deemed defamatory or in contempt of the monarchy.

The law's proponents explained that at present there is no law that deals with offenders of lese majeste through modern electronic means, such as on Internet websites and in computer systems.

Bangkok Pundit rightly calls the move to increase the breadth and penalties (to 20 years from 15) of lese majeste "insane." He notes that the lese majeste law is already draconian, and harsh computer crime laws are already on the books. In addition, the blogger observes that similarly excessive laws now protect the judiciary -- laws royalists have actively promoted.

Some enterprising graduate student ought to do a comparative study on the administration of lese mageste in Thailand to the application of liable law in Singapore which has served to shield the city state's leaders from criticism.

Thais enjoy various freedoms than the people of Singapore can only dream about, but for how much longer?

Thaksin's powerful friends

What does the fugitive deposed Prime Minister of Thailand have in common with John Major, Olivier Sarkozy (half-brother of Nicholas), George W. Bush, and George H. W. Bush?

Answer here. An observation concerning one probable past implication of the link here.

Perspective

Russian Jotman reader Sanjuro compares the Russia-Georgia conflict to the moral dimensions of the situation in the Congo -- and elsewhere. He writes:

Looks like the general consensus about the war in Ossetia is that Georgia did commit some atrocities, and Russians did invite Georgian's into a trap (paying with Ossetian lives for it), and all that is now part of the "business as usual" convention. I am pretty sure M. Saakashvili's standing at home will eventually erode, but he never be indicted by the West. Who cares?

These days nobody has the moral standing to judge any of the sides in a conflict. Look what's been happening in the East Congo and the EU reactions. France proposes to send EU troops, Germany says no and the plan stalls: France looks good (even without sending troops) because it "cares", Germany doesn't look good, but it "doesn't care" anyway. Meanwhile the FT publishes well-made, staged portraits of Laurent Nkunda posing on a chair with his spectacles and a cane, looking like a well-educated British colonial officer. I mean if France really wanted to end atrocities, they would send some troops without waiting for the Germans. And perhaps the FT would think twice before legitimizing a warlord as a "rebel leader". You know, things may turn out quite well for someone if they start with an FT editorial supplied with a good portrait. You suddenly start raising more money and may even run an election.

Let's be realists, Georgia sucks not because it committed atrocities, but because its invasion has failed. Russia sucks not because it invaded Georgia (or because it invited it into a carefully devised trap), but because it's trying to pose as global power while its economic and military capability are paper tigers not quite commensurate with that stance. The US sucks a bit less these days thanks to its decision to elect Obama, but it still sucks because the mission of regaining the high moral ground ("beacon of hope", or something?), if it ever existed, is surely doomed to fail at least in its technical aspect: you can't maintain two slow-burn armed conflicts and be a Beacon of Hope for the others at the same time. And we are yet to see why China sucks. It's quite intriguing. . .

Changing how we look at garbage

The owner of a paper recycling business in the Indonesian capital of Jakarta tells me about the true meaning of garbage.

Nine more Burmese activists sentenced to prison

The Irrawaddy reports:

Nine more political activists were sentenced by special courts in Insein Prison on Monday on charges including involvement in public demonstrations, illegal assembly and resisting officials, according to sources familiar with the prison.

The article also noted that:

The harshest sentences were given to Htin Kyaw, one of the solo protesters in 2007 demonstrations against deteriorating economic and social conditions, who received a 12 and one-half year sentence, and Sandar Wara, a monk from Thiri Zayyar Monastery in North Okklapa Township in Rangoon, who received an eight and one-half year sentence.

The two photos show Burmese people I saw while crossing the Thai-Burma friendship bridge at Mae Sot in November 2007.

Ukraine bans Russia-Georgia war documentary

InfoRus reports, "The Ukrainian Security Service (USS) banned Russian documentary film “War 08.08.08 The Art of Betrayal” claiming that it may provoke riots."

Yes, Ukraine which is supposed to be on track to eventually become a NATO member, is banning documentary films. In the US leaders have taken a different approach to the obscuring the truth about the conflict known as the Georgia-Russia war.

I just finished watching the banned Russian documentary, which is available in English on Youtube. It's not particularly controversial. Recent reports in the BBC and the New York Times suggest that Russian aggression was not the cause of the conflict.

Although Barack Obama's initial response to the hostilities had been measured and balanced, during each of the three presidential debates the Change Candidate embraced McCain's point of view that the war was entirely Russia's fault. Let's hope the shift was mere campaign tactics. In Washington D.C. last week, French President Sarkozy repeated the myth of Russian "aggression." It's the fear that a recent cover of Foreign Affairs propogates: that Russian aggression desperately needs to be "checked." So what are the Russians going to do next, invade France?

One thing is certain, the image of a Russian bear on the move in Europe is a marketing bonanza for defense contractors. To keep NATO growing you need to build a lot more big equipment: big ships, big bases, big planes. It sure helps if the Russians look like trouble.

Not only was it the Georgians who started the war, but the Russian intervention appears to have served a legitimate humanitarian purpose. It seems Georgian forces perpetrated war crimes against the people of South Ossetia.

Some points raised in the video:

• Evacuation of women and children from South Ossetia villages three days prior to Georgian attack.
• Role of Ukraine in arming the Georgians. A conduit for US and NATO supplies?
• Firing at homes, cars and civilians, which has been documented by the BBC and Human Rights Watch, among others.
• A network of deep trenches built above the city in weeks prior to the attack. Apparently
• people knew about the trenches and fortifications, but there was no reaction from the European observers in the OSCE
• 127 advisors from US defense department working in Georgia at the time.
• August 27: 1,000 American soldiers took part in Geogian-US military exercises.
• Attacks by Saakashvili's government killed 66 Russian peacekeepers, 1692 Russian citizens. Russians call it a "crime against Russia."

The film was made by Russians, and is obviously pro-Russia. But I do not like it when a film like this gets banned. And especially I do no like it when the US political class and media choose to disseminate an outright distortion of events-- turning myth into public opinion -- as has so obviously happened in this case. Make no mistake, the official US posture concerning the Georgia-Russia conflict is at once a fraud, a sham, and a breathtaking act of hypocrisy.

You can watch the Russian documentary here.

North Korea still dangerous and unpredictable

The current US leadership -- to the extent the term "leadership" applies anymore --- has overestimated the difficulty of finding a way to get along with Iran, taken actions that have been extremely counterproductive to building a relationship with Iran, and generally failed to seize the initiative with Iran when they had it. I suspect the difficulties the US is having with Iran today are not nearly as intractable as the US leaders have made them out to be. There are simply too many points where the interests of the US and Iran actually coincide.

North Korea is another matter altogether.

If there is a country the US leaders should be losing sleep over it is North Korea. Friday the commander of U.S. military forces stationed in South Korea spoke out about the dangers posed at this juncture; a time when the health of North Korea's leader is declining and the country faces a possible transition to military rule. It is something I alerted readers to a few weeks ago.

Hong Gwan-hui, a North Korea expert at the Seoul-based Security Strategy Institute, told UPI:

North Korea may stage a military provocation against the South if Seoul's conservative government does not comply with its demands.

Now is not the time to misread North Korea. The stakes and the risks are sufficiently high today that North Korea will need to be handled with extreme care in the coming months. For the sake of the South Koreans, Japanese, and also the North Korean people, let us hope competent people in Washington are paying close attention to the situation in the Korean Peninsula -- as the US goes through a transition of its own.

Where is Suu Kyi leading Burma?

The subject of Suu Kyi and Burma invites comparisons to the Dalai Lama and Tibet. Yet the case of the latter ought not be nearly as difficult as that of the former. Whereas Suu Kyi represented the majority of Burmese who elected her in 1990; the Dalai Lama speaks on behalf of a very tiny minority relative to the overall population of China. Yet, today, the followers of Suu Kyi seem to be in no less of a pickle than the Tibetans.

The plight of Burma was driven home only this week when the Burmese junta locked up dozens more activists -- including a blogger and a poet -- basically throwing away the keys.

Scott-Clark and Levy of The Guardian write that increasingly Burmese are asking if the opposition movement in Burma even has a leader today (as opposed to would-be martyr). And is she an effective leader? They write:

Suu Kyi is hallowed ground. And yet even some of her diehard supporters are now asking if the NLD and its leader have been guilty of political naivety and moral high-handedness, leaving the party and the democracy movement moribund.

The article concludes: "when it comes to leaders, some in the party are asking whether it is it time to move on from Aung San Suu Kyi."

I suspect any Burmese who only just began asking this question recently -- or still ask it -- are not terribly relevant to Burma's future direction. My own sense about this matter -- having spoken with various Burmese activists in the border regions one year ago -- is that serious strategic thinkers within the exile community had already moved on from any game of second-guessing Suu Kyi. Even by that time, events had rendered questions about Suu Kyi's leadership style largely irrelevant.

Nevertheless, Suu Kyi continues to serve Burmese as a vibrant symbol of a free and unified Burma -- very much as Queen Elizabeth is a figurehead for the UK and the Commonwealth. Having essentially consigned herself to this role, far from being seen as an obstacle, Suu Kyi is likley to continue to be regarded as an inspiration, a unifying force, and a blessing.

I am reminded of what one Burmese revolutionary told me almost exactly one year ago when I interviewed him at his hide-out in the border region:

We are all leaders. We don’t hope about leaders. We are all leaders. Whoever is doing are the leaders. They are the leaders of the future. We will find our own leaders in the fight, in the struggle. We will not hope for any leaders (to drop down) from the sky. We will find our own leaders in the fight.

They surely will.
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Hat-tip New Mandala

The George W. Bush Freedom Fence

According to a recent analysis in The Economist, the wall being built along the US-Mexican border simply doesn't make any sense. It is the wost of both worlds. The news magazine writes: "America is creating a barrier that is at once much too porous and rather too tight."

However, the wall is well on its way to becoming a reality:

By the end of this year the American government is supposed to have erected 670 miles of fencing along the 2,000-mile border with Mexico. Roughly half of the barrier is designed to stop everything bigger than a jackrabbit; the other half will let people through but stop vehicles. It is just part of a drive, stepped up in the past two years, to clamp down on illegal immigration and drug-smuggling. The Border Patrol is swelling from fewer than 6,000 officers in 1996 to more than 18,000 by next year. Unmanned watchtowers bristling with cameras and heat sensors are being developed. Finally, checks at proper border crossings are becoming more rigorous.

Continued here.

Thaksin jots around the world

The former Thai PM, having had his visa revoked by the UK, is today a world-wanderer. Facing an arrest-warrant in Thailand, Thaksin travels in search of a new home.

US Supreme court says whales don't matter

The only bright side to Wednesday's hight court ruling against the whales is that it was 5-4. Obama will no doubt have an opportunity to appoint a few more judges with common sense to the court.

The ruling says the US Navy does not have to restrict its use of sonar off the coast of California, even though scientists point to evidence that sonar is killing whales and other marine life. BBC News notes that "The court did not deal with the merits of the claims put forward by the environmental groups." ABC News report on the navy's argument:

The Navy has conducted training exercises off the Southern California coast for more than 40 years. It argues that its current training exercises have taken on added significance since the United States has been engaged in ongoing hostilities.

Some little-known facts about hostilities in which the US is engaged: 1) various terrorist groups are known to operate inside deep sea nuclear submarines; 2) the US Navy has proved indispensable in fighting the war against the Taliban in land-locked Afghanistan; 3) the Iraq war has amounted to one long series of naval engagements.

Is all this news to you? It goes to show that the American right will use the pretext of "hostilities" to justify just about anything the president commands.

I blogged more about this sorry legal case here.

Ted Turner, global citizen

The single most unfortunate business transaction of the second half of the twentieth century was the day CNN founder Ted Turner sold the network to TimeWarner.

On Tuesday Turner gave CNN's Lou Dobbs a piece of his mind. Voicing disagreement with the host's position against Mexican migrant workers in the US, Turner said:

How about from Canada? That's what worries me. Why don't we build a wall up there too?

I don't like walls. I remember we had a president who said,"tear down this wall." Now we are building a wall against Mexico. And the Israelis are building one against the Palestinians. And I've seen it too. And I don't like 'em. I think we need a world where people can go back and forth as they want to. . . .

Here's the interview on video -- the part where he talks about walls is in the last quarter of the video. In the earlier part Turner says he doesn't think the US government should bail out the idiots running the US automobile industry. They certainly are idiots -- for all the reasons Turner gives.
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Especially, see this Jotman post: The Eleven Voluntary Initiatives of Ted Turner

Obama wins and everyone goes crazy

The following video -- which I first posted last week -- is titled "The greatest day." Now that I have finished adding subtitles to the video, I wanted you to know that the greatest day just got better.

Incidents of rudeness will surely decline

CNN reports:

Eighty percent of Americans think rudeness is a serious national problem, but 99 percent of the same people say that they themselves are not rude.

Funny!

Anyway, I believe the Obama presidency will contribute to making Americans more polite and courteous. The new president is a classy guy: his daughters appear to have been well brought-up, and he ran a campaign characterized by decency and respect towards both McCain and Clinton. Such an example is sure to rub off on his countrymen over the course of the next four years.

Veterans and Memorial Day

November 11 is Memorial Day or Veteran's Day throughout the English-speaking world. A year ago, I spoke to a veteran of Burma's army who had sought treatment in Thailand at "Cynthia's clinic." (Coincidentally, today Dr. Cynthia Maung was awarded the 'Catalonia International Prize' from the government of Catalonia, Spain).

Here once again is the post in which I reported on my interview with the veteran:

How does the Burma junta treat its war veterans?

If you what to know what kind of regime runs Burma, ask a Burmese army war veteran.

Near a park across the river in Burma, I interviewed a Burmese army veteran. He had only one leg, having lost the other in combat. Beside him stood his wife. Against a concrete wall rested his artificial leg. One of his two sons sat tapping two sticks together while I spoke to his father. My guide served as interpreter.

J: Please tell me about yourself.

V: I was a soldier inside Burma. I fought for Burma north of the Thai border town of Tachilek. And in the far north of Burma -- near the Chinese border. There I fought against the Bakuba -- the army of the Burmese Communist Party.

J: Is this your son?

V: My house was taken by the Burmese army. This year, in April. Taken by force.

J: Why?

V: Five houses were taken away to build a railway station.

J: Did you get compensation.

V: No. Nothing!

J: Why did you come to this border town?

V: I came here to go to Cynthia's clinic in Thailand. And to get work.

J: I see.

V: I am very sad. My house was taken away by the army. After leaving my house I had to move to Mandalay. I had no job. So I came to here.

J: Can you work in Thailand?

V: I may be able to get temporary work in Thailand -- for a day.

I felt sad afterwards. It was a short talk. The wife, his son, and the former soldier appeared to have no possessions whatsoever. I thanked the soldier for speaking with me. I squeezed a bill into his hand. Seeing this, my guide praised me.

I only felt empty.

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Originally posted on Nov. 12, 2007. Poppy picture by Falkland's few.

Thirty-nine Burmese dissidents face long prison sentences

Saw Yan Naing writes in the Irrawaddy today:

The family members of 39 Burmese dissidents have tears in their eyes today.

Fourteen leading activists of the 88 Generation Students group, including five women, were given 65-year prison sentences in a court in Insein Prison. At the same time, 25 other activists, including five monks and women who took part in the September 2007 uprising, were sentenced to up to 26 years imprisonment. The well-known labor activist Su Su Nway was sentenced to 12 and half years.

Saw Yang Naing concludes his commentary by observing why the Burmese junta has, by and large, succeeded in squashing dissent:

The military leaders understand well that the world is divided into at least two camps: a sanctions-oriented policy versus engagement-oriented.

The world is divided and the junta has benefited. If the world united behind a single policy that combined elements of both strategies, some progress might be possible,
using a combination of economic sanctions, engagement and other creative approaches.

New ideas and tactics are needed. Otherwise, the leading activists who were just sentenced to 65 years will languish in prison.

I spoke with a former prisoner of the regime about this time last year about what kinds of new ideas are needed. You can read his remarks and those of others here.

The Irrawaddy has more details on the sentencing of the 88 generation activists and other dissidents here and here. In the previous post, I reported on the harsh sentence handed down to blogger Nay Phone Latt and the two year imprisonment of poet Saw Wai.

Burma blogger Nay Phone Latt sentenced to 20 years in prison

This is a sad day for freedom of speech and blogging.

I previously blogged about the arrest of Nay Phone Latt, a Burmese blogger, back in January 2008. According to the Irrawaddy, Nay Phone Latt was:

. . . a major source of information for the outside world on the brutal regime crackdown on the September 2007 uprising. . . [providing] invaluable information about events within the locked-down country.

Reporter Without Borders (RSF) reports that this blogger has just been handed down a very harsh prison sentence. RSF states that it is

. . . appalled by the combined sentence of 20 years and six months in prison that a special court in Insein prison passed today on a young blogger, Nay Phone Latt. A poet, Saw Wai, was sentenced to two years in prison for a poem containing a coded criticism of Gen. Than She, the head of the military junta.

"The authorities have imposed an extraordinarily severe punishment on Nay Phone Latt just for using the Internet," the two organisations said. . . . we call for his immediate release. Saw Wai, for his part, is being made to pay for his impertinence and courage as a committed poet."

The two organisations added: "There is an urgent need now for bloggers all over the world to demonstrate their solidarity with Nay Phone Latt . . . "

CNN reports on the sentencing of Saw Wai, who wrote a poem critical of the junta leader:

The first words of each line in the eight-line poem, "February the Fourteenth" spelled out the message: "Senior General Than Shwe is crazy with power."

You can read interviews with a number of Burmese behind the 2007 protests, including my reports from the Thai-Burma border, and my trips inside Burma in the aftermath of protests and brutal crackdown here.

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Nay Phone Latt's blog (Burmese). Top left photo shows Ko Nay Phone Latt; right photo shows poet Saw Wai.