Happy Halloween

From left to right: a goon, Obama, Osama, and a guy wearing a shower cap and -- not visible -- diapers.

I took this picture Friday evening.

Grenade kills protester in Bangkok

At about 3 am Oct. 30 a grenade was thrown at security guards serving the PAD protest group camped out in Bangkok, injuring 10 people. After 5 am the same morning another man was killed, having previously been seen arguing with the PAD guards, police said he had been beaten to death with sharp objects.

Bangkok Pundit views these incidents as "part of the esclaating tit-for-tat gang warfare" taking place on the streets of Bangkok.

Is Iceland the world's stupidest small country?

Iceland. It has had everything going for it. It has a pristine environment; it is a rich, under-populated country where clean green geothermal energy is plentiful. And what have the leaders of this tiny subarctic island paradise been up to?

In 2007, the NY Times reported on how Icelanders were busy ruining their natural environment:

Now, with proposals on the table for three more power-plant-and-aluminum-smelter projects, environmentalists say the chance to protect Iceland’s spectacular, and spectacularly fragile, natural beauty is running out.

“If all of these projects get through, then it’s a total environmental apocalypse for the Icelandic highlands; they’ll have developed every single major glacial river and geothermal field for heavy industry,” said Olafur Pall Sigurdsson, one of the organizers of Saving Iceland, a coalition of groups opposing further development.

“It is a very rare nature that we are the guardians of, and we are squandering it,” he said.

National Geographic reported:

"In the fall of 2006, secluded, faraway Iceland found itself at a turning point. A remote high-land wilderness was being flooded -- this to create a reservoir measuring 22 square miles as a power source for a new aluminum smelter. . . the land was going to be irreversibly changed: highland vegetation submerged, waterfalls and part of a dramatic canyon dried up, pink-footed geese and reindeer herds displaced. Environmentalists around the world were condemning the flooding as an attack on one of Europe's last intact wilderness areas -- they called it 'the drowning' -- and the Icelanders themselves didn't know if they were headed for an economic boom, an economic bust, and/or the greatest environmental disaster in European history."

Environmental disaster? An economic bust? We now know the the answer to the question posed by National Geographic.

First, environmentally, the project was a disaster. Blogger Ecorazzi reports on a protest led by Björk in June 2008 against plans for new aluminum smelters in Iceland:

When a previous aluminum plant in Iceland went online in 2006, waterfalls disappeared, beautiful canyons dried up, and animals were displaced.

Second, Iceland now faces a total economic collapse. Referring to Iceland today, a blogger asks, "I wonder what it is like for a country to be truly, permanently bankrupt?" The blogger's question was prompted by a report in the Financial Times: "The government of Iceland has now been offered foreign loans that roughly equal the country's gross domestic product. The annual interest payments, say 3-4 per cent, approximately correspond to the country's annual economic growth."

So what happened?

Iceland's leaders said, hey let's borrow money and live the jet-set lifestyle. WSJ reports: "They bought expensive cars with loans in yen and Swiss francs with attractively low interest rates, racking up high debts exposed to the vagaries of currency exchange." Iceland's government said: let's get into the mining and smelting business. A major cause of Iceland's high CAD (current accounts deficit) -- that help precipitate the country's financial meltdown -- was deficit spending on the environmentally ruinous projects. Today, a leading Iceland bank reports that "the benefit that Iceland derives from aluminum smelters is small." It is further reported that

Ásgeir Jónsson, an economist at KB-bank says that this year it is more difficult to build the smelters and they constitute a massive investment. After the smelters start operations they do not make much use of local factors of production because the aluminium is imported. Ásgeir points out that at the aluminium smelter in Reydarfjordur there are between 400 - 500 jobs which is a small number compared to the 150,000 jobs in Iceland.

Like so many mega-projects, Iceland's smelters mainly benefit the investors who build and maintain them.

Mind you, this is not any smelting, but the smelting of one of the more toxic metals on the planet. I have strong opinion about aluminum smelters because I lived for a short time in town located near a major aluminum smelter. Although I did no know the actual statistics, the suicide rate did seem suspiciously high. Moreover, myself and everyone in the town seemed to suffer strange flu-like symptoms. The NY Times article noted:

. . . the new smelters would require about eight times the amount of electricity currently used for all of Iceland’s domestic consumption, putting a huge strain on the country’s rivers and thermal fields, said Hjorleifur Guttormsson, who was Iceland’s energy and industry minister from 1980 to 1985. Mr. Guttormsson, a naturalist, said pollution was another concern: aluminum plants are heavy emitters of sulfur dioxide, hydrogen fluoride and other chemicals.

Any country as rich -- in every respect -- as Iceland that chooses to go into debt to in order to develop an industry so destructive of the environment as aluminum smelters must not be terribly clever. But the fact that Iceland has ruined it's financial situation in the process of building these polluting smelters surely makes the country deserving of the title: World's stupidest small country.

But all is not yet lost. There are Icelanders like Björk, who calls upon her fellow countrymen to start practicing some creativity. In an opinion piece in the London Times Björk writes:

"Let's use this economic crisis to become totally sustainable. Teach the world all we know about geothermal power plants. Support the Icelandic seed companies. Support the grass roots.

"It may take longer to build and deliver profits but it is solid, stable and something that will stand independently of the rollercoaster rides of Wall Street and volatile aluminium prices."

"And it will help Iceland to remain what it is best at: being a gorgeous, untouched force of nature."

As the economic crisis worsens and global environment deteriorates, it is not only Iceland that must heed Björk's prescription. Perhaps the inhabitants of tiny Iceland -- having faced the alternatives -- will bravely choose to lead the way.
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*"One of the most unspoiled places in the developed world, Iceland is slightly larger than Indiana, with a population of about 300,000 people (Indiana’s is 6.3 million). Two-thirds live in the capital, Reykjavik; the rest are spread across 39,800 square miles of volcanic rock, treeless tundra and scrubby plains. Seventy percent of the land is uninhabitable."

Did Georgian President Saakashvili authorize war crimes?

BBC reports:

The BBC has discovered evidence that Georgia may have committed war crimes in its attack on its breakaway region of South Ossetia in August.

Eyewitnesses have described how its tanks fired directly into an apartment block, and how civilians were shot at as they tried to escape the fighting.

Research by the international investigative organisation Human Rights Watch also points to indiscriminate use of force by the Georgian military, and the possible deliberate targeting of civilians.

Indiscriminate use of force is a violation of the Geneva Conventions, and serious violations are considered to be war crimes.

If this information is correct, surely the Russians had at least as much right to intervene in South Ossetia as the West when it liberated Kosovo and bombed Serbia. It is beginning to look as if American leaders owe the Russians an very big apology -- lest they prove themselves to be monstrous hypocrites.

Furthermore, McCain should held to account for his friendship with Georgian President Saakashvili, who is now suspected of authorizing war crimes. Both McCain and his foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann not only call themselves friends of the Georgian president, they are his cheerleaders. In fact, Scheunemann worked as lobbyist for Georgia. As I have blogged (here and here), these relationships are seriously disconcerting matters.*
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Hat-tip: Glenn
* Obama's acquaintance with Bill Ayers is not comparable. Obama's friend Rashid Khalidi only suffered the misfortune of having had his good name smeared by the Republicans in a McCarthyist fashion. However, Obama is not entirely innocent, as Obama has followed McCain's lead in propogating blatantly false anti-Russia propaganda during the debates, likewise demonizing Russia -- as if Georgia was purely "a victim" of Russian aggression.

George Soros: US must protect peripheral countries against financial storm

Earlier in the month I blogged:

Mark my words: the USA is not going to be particularly well-regarded in Asia by the time this financial crisis is through. The wounds from the 1997 crisis and the IMF intervention have barely healed.

Anticipating the effects of a US generated crisis on developing world economies, George Soros, writing in the Financial Times, observes that US policy makers have not shown a lot of concern over the years about these "countries at the periphery." Entirely on account of the US financial crisis and the US government's response to it so far -- in spite of their own (generally sound) financial management in recent years -- the economies of many peripheral countries are now at serious risk. Soros explains what happened:

. . . after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the financial system suffered a temporary cardiac arrest and the authorities in the US and Europe resorted to desperate measures to resuscitate it. In effect, they resolved that no other big financial institution would be allowed to default and also they guaranteed depositors against losses. This had unintended adverse consequences for the peripheral countries and the authorities have been caught unawares. In recent days there has been a general flight for safety from the periphery back to the centre. Currencies have dropped against the dollar and the yen,* some precipitously. Interest rates and credit default premiums have soared and stock markets crashed. Margin calls have proliferated and spread to stock markets in the US and Europe, raising the spectre of renewed panic.

Soros calls upon the United States to protect not only itself, but the countries of the periphery from this crisis:

It is time to start thinking about creating special drawing rights or some other form of international reserves on a large scale, but that is subject to American veto.

President George W. Bush has convened a G20 summit for November 15 but there is not much point in holding such a meeting unless the US is serious about supporting a global rescue effort. The US must show the way in protecting the peripheral countries against a storm that has originated in the US, if it does not want to forfeit its claim to the leadership position. Even if Mr Bush does not share this point of view, it is to be hoped the next president will – but by then the damage will be much greater.

The credibility of United States' claim to its position of global leadership is the line. But the gloomy prediction I made in early October need not necessarily come to pass. As Soros points out, this requires only that America's leaders act with a view to the future of the world.
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* "Currencies have dropped against the dollar and the yen." See this post about the similarities between the Asian financial crisis and the effect of the present crisis on Indonesia. It was observed that "Indonesia is headed into a spiral of a weakening currency relative to the yen and other major currencies."

Palin, Obama, and Rashid Khalidi

CNN reports:

"It seems that there is yet another radical professor from the neighborhood who spent a lot of time with Barack Obama going back several years," Palin said at an event in Bowling Green, Ohio.

"This is important because his associate, Rashid Khalidi ... in addition to being a political ally of Barack Obama, he's a former spokesperson for the Palestinian Liberation Organization."

Rahsid Khalidi studies nationalism in the Arab world -- a topic that ought to be of interest to any future American president. It would be surprising if Khalidi did not have strong sympathies for the plight of the Palestinians.

Sarah Palin, on the other hand, has a degree in sports journalism. Perhaps college life never afforded Sarah Palin the opportunities Obama had at Columbia to make friends with people from other countries with backgrounds, experiences, and perspectives markedly different from her own. Far more likely, Palin simply chose not to take advantages of such opportunities when they came along. Otherwise, she would know better than to smear Obama on the basis of his friendship with Khalidi.

Do-it-yourself electoral college map

All the networks and polling websites have the maps, but I found an interesting website lets you experiment with the electoral college map yourself.

Sky is falling

Commenting on the demise of the Christian Science Monitor as a daily newspaper, and yet another wave of layoffs at US newspapers, the NY Times reports:

Clearly, the sky is falling. The question now is how many people will be left to cover it.

I'll say this: I think it sheer madness for the best newspapers to have continued giving away their content for free over the Internet. I can't tell you how many times I have been really tempted to buy print and then, at the last moment, resolved to go online for the content instead. And when was the last time I clicked an ad? The best American newspapers and magazines have lost hundreds of dollars of income from me alone over just the past year -- money they could easily have got me to pay.

They quality news media needs to act as one in confronting this problem.

North Korea: Kim Jong Il in hospital

Seemingly ending weeks of wild speculation, Japanese and South Korean reports indicate that the North Korean leader has been hospitalized. The NY Times reports:

Kim Jong Il is hospitalized but still capable of making decisions, Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso said Tuesday.

Citing intelligence reports, Aso said in a parliamentary session that "there are reports he has been hospitalized."

"However, it's not believed that he is completely incapable of making decisions," Aso said.

If Kim, 66, had been incapable of decision-making, intelligence officials believe, "we would be seeing different developments" in North Korea, Aso said.

An AP report cites South Korean newspaper report that also says the North Korean leader had been hospitalized.

The report in the Dong-a Ilbo newspaper cited an unnamed government official in saying intelligence obtained Sunday suggested "a serious problem" with Kim's health.

Kim, 66, reportedly suffered a stroke and underwent brain surgery in August. North Korea, however, denies he is ill.

South Korea's National Intelligence Service and its Unification Ministry said Wednesday they were aware of the Dong-a report but could not confirm it.

AP also reports on the execution of some people convicted of trying to escape North Korea. That article notes that "Japan's Fuji Television reported that Kim's son, Kim Jong Nam, flew recently to Paris to recruit a neurosurgeon to treat his father." The report continues:

The French weekly Le Point reported on its Web site Tuesday that a French neurosurgeon who is a close friend of French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was traveling to North Korea to give medical care to Kim. But Le Point said it had contacted the doctor, Francois-Xavier Roux, who insisted he was in Beijing for several days — and not North Korea.

Roux's hospital in Paris told The Associated Press late Tuesday that its offices were closed for the day, and that no one was available to answer questions about him. The French Foreign Ministry confirmed that Roux knows Kouchner.

ROKdrop and JapanProbe blog have further details concerning the son's trip to Paris and the French surgeon. Last week some photos of Kim Jong Il were released, but their authenticity has been questioned reports mySinchew (which posts one of the -- possibly fake -- photos). Blogger Yinsushin believes the North Korean military machine is not adversely effected by these developments:

Still, despite economic problems, rumors of social crises, and questions of succession, North Korea’s military development seems to be steady and progressing, rather than stagnant (for everything but missile development) as we had seen in the past decade. It suggests stability of the regime to continue to develop long-term enhancements to the North Korean military structure. Foreign desire to see instability in the North Korean regime may be more wishful thinking than based on reality.

Meanwhile, VOA reports that South Korean groups are launching hot air balloons filled with leaflets from boats positioned offshore North Korea. The North has threatened to respond with an "advanced pre-emptive strike of our own style" that "will reduce everything... to debris, not just setting it on fire." According to Reuters, the government of South Korean PM Lee had asked the anti-North groups to stop distributing the leaflets, noting that:

The North's official cabinet newspaper said last week the leaflets were "getting on the nerves of the army and people of the DPRK (North Korea)," and could lead to a nuclear war.

A new press release at the KCNA (North Korea news service) concerns the North's displeasure and threats with regards to the leaflet drops. The VOA story indicated that "Tuesday's statement uses some of the most explicit military-themed language since Mr. Lee took office in January."

With the revered leader incapacitated, I imagine that such talk most likely amounts to bluster. Perhaps, indeed, an opportune moment has arrived for the South to reach across to the people of the North -- by whatever means is available. On the other hand, suppose the gravely ill dictator contemplates going out with a bang? At this juncture, there is much the world needs to know about North Korea and its leader -- but does not.
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Wikipedia's biography of Kim Jong Il

McCain's October Surprise: Syria?

This WaPo article also discusses the new policy shift marked by the attack on Syria. "By approving a U.S. military raid across the Iraqi border into Syria, Bush has changed the rules once again. Call it an October surprise -- if not, at least so far, the October surprise."

That's more or less what I called it at the time.

McCain campaign statements prove that the raid on Syria was perceived to have armed McCain with some new political amunition to use against Obama. WaPo reports:

John McCain's campaign said Monday that the successful U.S. strike against a terrorist target in Syria would not have happen ed if Barack Obama had been president.

In a sharply worded e-mail, McCain spokesman Michael Goldfarb said: "If Barack Obama had his way, U.S. forces would not have been in a position to launch this strike. So does Barack Obama support this action -- an action that would not even have been possible if his policies had been implemented?"

McCain's statement also raised again Obama's willingness to meet with adversarial foreign leaders and the decision of one of Obama's foreign policy advisers to travel to Syria for meetings with its government.

In the statement, Goldfarb said: "Barack Obama has pledged to meet personally and unconditionally with Syria's leaders during his first year in office. While John McCain has been demanding that Syria do more to crack down on terrorists moving from its territory into Iraq, Barack Obama allowed one of his closest foreign policy advisers to travel to Syria for discussions with the leaders of that rogue regime."

Will this line of attack become a new television advertisement? And part of McCain's next speech?

How dare anyone suggest the political use to which McCain has put the military action was not the ultimate rationale for the White House to have approved it in the first place. No, the US news media will not go there.

Why the US attack on Syria was a big deal

The criteria for launching such attacks has shifted, as Robert Dreyfus of The Nation writes:

A parallel new Bush doctrine is emerging, in the last days of the soon-to-be-ancien regime, and it needs to be strangled in its crib. Like the original Bush doctrine -- the one that Sarah Palin couldn't name, which called for preventive military action against emerging threats -- this one also casts international law aside by insisting that the United States has an inherent right to cross international borders in "hot pursuit" of anyone it doesn't like.

Dreyfus gives examples.

• Pakistan. "Pakistan has been the subject of at least nineteen aerial attacks by CIA-controlled drone aircraft, killing scores of Pakistanis and some Afghans in tribal areas controlled by pro-Taliban forces. The New York Times listed, and mapped, all nineteen such attacks"

• Syria. "The U.S. raid into Syria on October 26 similarly trampled on Syria's sovereignty without so much as a fare-thee-well. . . The Washington Post was ecstatic, writing in an editorial: "If Sunday's raid, which targeted a senior al-Qaeda operative, serves only to put Mr. Assad on notice that the United States, too, is no longer prepared to respect the sovereignty of a criminal regime, it will have been worthwhile." Is it really that easy? To say: We declare your regime criminal, and so we will attack you anytime we care to?"

• Iran. "The Times broadens the possible targets from Pakistan and Syria to Iran, writing (in a page one story by Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker): "Administration officials declined to say whether the emerging application of self-defense could lead to strikes against camps inside Iran that have been used to train Shiite 'special groups' that have fought with the American military and Iraqi security forces." That, of course, has been a live option, especially since the start of the surge in January, 2007, when President Bush promised to strike at Iranian supply lines in Iraq and other U.S. officials, including Vice President Cheney, pressed hard to attack sites within Iran, regardless of the consequences."

Previously during the Bush Administration, discussion about the possibility of US commando attacks on the sovereign territory of foreign states focused on seizing some truly extraordinary opportunity. For example, Obama says if he had actionable intelligence on Bin Laden, he would approve a cross-border attack in Pakistan.

It reminds me of back in 2002-3 when you would hear American leaders and journalists speculate about the extraordinary circumstances under which torture ought to be permissible -- those ticking bomb scenarios. The rest is history. Within a couple years, the practice of torture was routine.

Both examples -- in which the the extraordinary instance became policy and practice -- share something in common besides the fact both concern the violation of international law. Also, both prioritize short-term operational goals at the expense of the long-term big picture thinking.

Wack Jobs

One unidentified staffer told Politico.com that the Alaska governor was a "whack job." - AFP

Here is the definition of a "wack job" according to the Urban Dictionary:

Someone who is crazy and/or has lost their mind and acts like a damn lunatic. Someone you should avoid at all costs as they may be a harm to yourself or others.

Let's cross the street. We don't want to walk next to that wack job on the corner who's walking in circles and talking to himself.

In my estimation the definition certainly fits Sarah Palin; particularly the ". . . avoid at all cost as they may be a harm to yourself or others" part. But the "walking in circles" example does not remind me of Palin so much as it brings to mind John McCain's performance during the second presidential debate.*
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* Live-blogging the second debate, I jotted: "M doesn't look at O as he speaks. Walking in circles like he's lost."

CSIS expert explains why US launched attack inside Syria

A Washington Post article explores the military rationale behind the attack inside Syria. It concludes with a provocative quotation from a US foreign policy expert.

The military's argument is that "you can only claim sovereignty if you enforce it," said Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

I was thinking that this argument -- which Cordesman attributes to the US military -- would be a great marketing slogan for a major defense contractor. It provides a whole new rationale for pressuring governments -- especially those in the developing world -- to allocate more resources towards military procurements.

The article concludes with another quote from the same expert:

"When you are dealing with states that do not maintain their sovereignty and become a de facto sanctuary, the only way you have to deal with them is this kind of operation," he said.*

The only way?
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* I see that CSIS likes these quotes so much that they put them up on their website.

It's not that McCain is the devil or that Obama is the Messiah, but. . .

Stanley Fish, writing in the NY Times, puts his finger on why Obama is clobbering McCain in the polls:

I find an answer in a most unlikely place, John Milton’s “Paradise Regained,” a four-book poem in which a very busy and agitated Satan dances around a preternaturally still Jesus until, driven half-crazy by the response he’s not getting, the arch-rebel (i.e., maverick) loses it, crying in exasperation, “What dost thou in this world?”

Fish has written the finest piece of poli-literary campaign analysis I have read in a long time.

Emerging markets at risk in financial crisis

It's not just hedge markets that are in trouble now. Emerging markets like Russia, Korea and Brazil are in trouble Paul Krugman tries to explain what went wrong:

In the 1990s, emerging market governments were vulnerable because they had made a habit of borrowing abroad; when the inflow of dollars dried up, they were pushed to the brink. Since then they have been careful to borrow mainly in domestic markets, while building up lots of dollarreserves. But all their caution was undone by the private sector’s obliviousness to risk.

Timeline of Sarah Palin's involvement with Convicted Senator Ted Stevens

To commemorate today's court ruling that found Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska guilty on all counts of corruption, I thought we might review Sarah Palin's connections with Sen Stevens. Here are some relevant excerpts from the Jotman's Palin Timeline. I have included a few other, non-Stevens related events to provide context.

In the process of doing careful source-checking for the timeline, I discovered a significant error in a widely circulated Washington Post report concerning Palin's involvement with Stevens. I refer to the error in the timeline.

LEGEND

• life-transition/family/career/other (BLACK
• federal earmarks, Sen. Stevens-related, etc. (MONEY GREEN)
• bridge to nowhere (WATER BLUE)
  
• Other Palin scandals, listed on the main timeline, not included on this timeline.

1991-1995
1992-6 - "Wasilla had received few if any earmarks before Palin became mayor. " (LAT)

1996-1999

1996-2000 - Wasilla benefited from $26.9 million in Federal earmarks.
1996 - sum - In the interest of preventing highway fatalities, the Wasilla council debated whether to mandate an earlier closing times for the bars.The police chief was among those calling for closing the taverns earlier. "Because bars in Anchorage closed earlier, some people drove to Wasilla to keep drinking, endangering themselves and others, Stambaugh argued." Palin sided with the bar owners.
1996 - Sep - ran for mayor of Wasilla, pop. 6,000

2000
2000-2003 - Wasilla receives 11.9 million in federal earmarks (20 times per-capita average in other states)

2000 - Jan - writes glowing letter of reference for Wooten to become a state trooper. Palin called him "a fine role model."
2000 - hired a Washington lobbyist to secure federal earmarks for her community (Robertson, Monagle & Eastaugh, an Anchorage-based law firm with close ties to Rep. Don Young and Sen. Ted Stevens

2001
2001 - McCain list of spending "that had been approved without the normal budget scrutiny included a $500,000 earmark for a public transportation project in Wasilla."
2001 - fee paid by Wasilla to Mr. Silver pf the lobby firm raised from $24,000 to $36,000.
2001 - piper born

2002
2002 - leaves Assemblies of God church, an Evangelical church which she had attended since the age of four.
2002 - McCain objects to $1 million for Wasillla "in a 2002 spending bill for an emergency communications center in town -- one that local law enforcement has said is redundant and creates confusion."
2002 - "As Palin campaigned unsuccessfully in 2002 to become lieutenant governor, she received contributions from executives at VECO Corp., a powerful Alaska oil field services company.(IHT)"
2002 - unsuccessful in her campaign for lieutenant governor.
2002 - Oct - Palin's second term as mayor of Wasilla ends.

2003
2003 - McCain criticized $450,000 for an "agricultural processing facility in Wasilla that was requested during Palin's tenure as mayor."

2003 - Feb - Palin, although she did not have an oil and gas background, was named chairwoman of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission "with the $125,000-a-year seat designated for a "public" member."

2003-4 - Chairwoman, AOGCC
2003 - Nov - Ruedrich resigned from the AOGCC. "Palin, acting as chairwoman and ethics supervisor, passed complaints up the ladder to the attorney general and the governor's office." Press accounts make Palin the hero.

2004

2004 - Jan - Palin resigns AOGCC in protest "over what she called the 'lack of ethics' of fellow Republican members."
2004 - Mar 17 - founding of a mysterious 527political organization named "Ted Stevens Excellence in Public Service Inc." Palin one of the three founding directors of "Ted Stevens Excellence in Public Service, Inc."This "527 group that could raise unlimited funds from corporate donors" is described as a "boot camp for Republican women" in Alaska.WaPo reports "The Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call reported that several experts called the group an example of the fine legal line between a legal effort to conduct political activity and then-new prohibitions against raising unlimited soft-money." (WaPo article incorrectly states group was founded in 2003. Proof 03-17-2004 is actual founding date here and here).
2004 - Jun - Republican Ruedrich, who Palin had helped get fired, admits to breaking ethics laws, fined. Palin is vindicated in the media.

2005

2005 - Jun - resigns from Ted Stevens Excellence in Public Service Inc.
2005 - Nov 16 - Republicans in US Congress stipulate that $442 million does not have to be spent on Alaska's maligned "bridge to nowhere." However, Alaska would now get to keep the money "with no strings attached."

2006
2006 - Feb - private meeting with McCain in a National Governors Association meeting

2006 - Sen. Stevens films campaign commercial with Palin. It is "a last moment endorsement."
2006 - Mar 1 -Grimes suspends trooper Mike Wooten for 3 days.
2006 - Sep - Gubernatorial election. "Palin campaigned on a build-the-bridge platform, telling Ketchikan residents she felt their pain when politicians called them 'nowhere.' . . . said the bridge was essential for the town’s prosperity."
2006 - Oct 2 - interview with the KDN "There needs to be a link between Ketchikan and its future and its future opportunities and progress, opening up land in this area," she said. ("Critics of the bridge projects pointed out that members of the Murkowski family own land on Gravina Island and business associates of Stevens and Young, as well as a member of Young's family, own land that would be accessed by the Knik Arm Bridge" TW (and this TPM post).
2006 - Fall - wins Republican primary, defeating Gov. Frank Murkowski
2006 - Dec - jobs go "to friends and appointed lobbyists to oversee industries they used to represent (Newsweek).
2006 - Dec - now governing a state with 2 international borders: Canada and Russia

2007

2007 - Jun - signed into law a $6.6 billion operating budget—the largest in Alaska's history
2007 - Aug - I-35W bridge in Minnesote collapses, killing 13 people
2007 - Aug - McCain talked about I-35W and slammed the Ketchikan "bridge to nowhere"
2007 - Sep - Track enlisted in the U.S. Army
2007 - Sep 24 - canceled "Bridge to Nowhere" because of cost overruns (WaPo) and its "national notoriety. Canceling work on the bridge will free up about $36 million in federal funds that may be used on other Alaska transportation projects, the governor said" TW . A three-mile road on sparsely populated Gravina Island built with $25 million of the original bridge money -- integral to the original plan -- because otherwise "money would have had to be returned to the federal government."
2007 - Dec - posed for Vogue Magazine.

2008 - JAN

2008 - FEB

2008 - Feb - office sent Sen. Stevens outline for "$200 million worth of new funding requests for Alaska."

2008 - MAR
2008 - Mar 5 - staff and Alaska press, and family, told Palin 7 months pregnant (NY Times story).

2008 - Mar 31 - established "a $150 bounty to the state sanctioned airborne wolf hunters as an added incentive to increase their kills," soon overturned by the Alaska State Court.

2008 - APR

2008 - Apr 16 - 04:00 - Avalanches took out five transmission towers at the Snettisham hydroelectric power plant near Juneau that provides the primary source of electric power to the citizens of Juneau. Estimates indicated the hydroelectric power will not be restored for approximately three months.

2008 - MAY

2008 - JUN
2008 - June 7 - Palin flies to Juneau to Wasilla. The return trip plane ticket costs $519.50. It will be billed to the state.
2008 - June 9 - Palin flies from Wasilla to Juneau. ADN reports "State records show that Palin submitted a travel authorization for a quick round-trip visit to attend the June 8 graduation of the Master's Commission program at the Wasilla Assembly." In addition to the plane ticket, she billed the state for expenses of $120.00

2008 - JUL

2008 - Jul 11 - relations between Palin and her mentor former Alaska Gov. Wally Hickel sour. Hickel insists on an “all-Alaska” pipeline (says "stand up to Canada!"), while Palin is pushing for a state license for TransCanada Corp.
2008 - Jul (late) - prior to Stevens indictment, Palin holds joint news conference with Stevens to make clear she had not abandoned him politically.
2008 - Jul 31 - Alaska Sen. Stevens indicted on seven counts of corruption (accepting illegal gifts). "A federal grand jury accused Stevens of concealing on financial disclosure statements lucrative gifts from the now-defunct oil company Veco and its top executives." The Wasilla account had been handled by the former chief of staff to Stevens, Steven W. Silver., -- a partner in Robertson, Monagle & Eastaugh, the firm Palin had hired (WaPo)

2008 - AUG

2008 - Aug 24 - McCain called Palin to discuss the VP.
2008 - Aug 27 - Palin visited McCain's vacation home near Sedona, Arizona, where she was offered VP. (no face-to-face discussion about it beforehand).
2008 - Aug 29 - Fri - ad showing Sen. Stevens endorsing Palin in 2006 removed from Gov's website (view ad).
2008 - Aug 29 - Fri - McCain introduces Palin as running-mate to crowd. "McCain emphasized Palin's role as commander in chief of the Alaska National Guard."
2008 - Aug 29 - Fri - Palin told a cheering McCain crowd: "I've championed reform to end the abuses of earmark spending by Congress. In fact, I told Congress thanks, but no thanks, on that bridge to nowhere. If our state wanted a bridge, I said, we'd build it ourselves."

2008 - SEP
2008 - Sep 3 - Palin speech at RNC.
2008 - Sep 3 - McCain repeats "contention that Governor Palin rejected the controversial Bridge to Nowhere" in an interview with ABC News.

Jotman's entire Palin Timeline is available, listing various possible scandals in Palin's career.

Syrian view of US attack on village

An attack like the one carried out yesterday was the first of its kind against Syria -- a country with which the US is not at war. A Syrian BBC listener who was in the village at the time told the BBC that the raid had enraged local residents. He said:

I live less than two miles (three kilometres) away from where it took place. I was asleep at the time, but went to the hospital less than two hours afterwards. Nearly everyone who had heard about it was there.

Most of the people here have bitter anti-American sentiments and this has only added fuel to the fire.

We are also very disappointed with the lack of response from our own authorities.

The attack was in the village of Sukariya, which is inhabited almost entirely by the Mashahda tribe.

They are very relaxed, laid back people, not very religious - there's no Mujahideen from this tribe. The guard and the woman who died were very simple people.

They lived in a tent and were being paid to guard building materials such as cement and timber, 24 hours a day. These people will have had nothing to do with the insurgency in Iraq.

Most of the people who live here have families in Iraq. A lot of smuggling goes on: bringing guns and sheep from Iraq to Syria.

There is security everywhere in this country. The government is very severe with the locals; if they have a tip-off that someone has a stolen gun, the place will be surrounded in two minutes.

But yesterday there was zero response. The attack happened close to a bridge over the Euphrates and there are military posts either side of the bridge - so very near.

But the army is indecisive when it comes to action. The people who were killed were harmless, they should have been protected. It is a very saddening experience.

People talk about patriotism, but when it comes to action - nothing.

People here hate America more than before and they are disappointed in their own authorities' response.

Can you imagine a better recruitment vehicle for terrorism than for the US to have attacked a village in a neighboring country to Iraq? Much of the Syrian's frustration is with his own regime for its failure to respond. Overnight, the US attack has caused Syrians nationalists to feel greater sympathy for the enemies of the United States. What kind of organizations will angry young Syrians likely turn to, if they are, on one hand, frustrated with their own government, and on the other, angry at the United States?

By waging the war in Iraq, the United States discredits local authorities, thereby increasing the appeal of Bin Laden's message to those who inhabit villages throughout the region. Is it any wonder terrorists say they want John McCain to win the election?

US attack on Syria

If any good fight will do, why not pick one with the weakest US adversary in the region? IHT reports on a potentially serious incident of aggression by the US against Syria:

U.S. military helicopters attacked an area along Syria's border with Iraq Sunday, killing eight people, the Syrian government said, condemning what it called "serious aggression."

The raid, which a U.S. military official in Washington confirmed, indicated the desert frontier between the two countries remains a key battleground 5 1/2 years into the Iraq war. The U.S. official said the attack targeted elements of a robust foreign fighter logistics network and that due to Syrian inaction the U.S. was now "taking matters into our own hands."

The US newspaper's lede to the story almost makes the attack sound routine. It was not. The BBC report gets straight to point (well, it almost gets to the point):

Syria has said American troops carried out a raid inside Syria along the Iraqi border, killing eight people - if the claims are true then this will be the first military incursion by the US into Syrian territory from Iraq.

But its timing is curious, coming right at the end of the Bush administration's period of office and at a moment when many of America's European allies - like Britain and France - are trying to broaden their ties with Damascus.

Whatever the local military factors involved in this US operation, it would be unthinkable to imagine that an incursion into Syria would not require a policy decision at a high-level.

"What could lie behind Syria raid?" was the headline to this BBC story. Strangely, the BBC article does not actually spell out what is actually so curious about the timing of the attack. The article concludes, "With the Bush administration on the way out, this US military incursion may represent something of a parting shot against the Syrians. " A parting shot? What is that supposed to mean? If the article had concerned the military actions of a third-world country's leadership facing an election in just over one week, don't you suppose the BBC report would have spelled out the "curiosity" for its readers a tad more explicitly?

The one area McCain still has an edge over Obama is on national security and the Commander-in-Chief thing. Certainly, whacking Israel's enemy the week before the election cannot hurt the Republican effort to win over elderly Jewish voters residing in the swing state of Florida. If the situation escalates further, it could give McCain a platform to go into "hawk warrior overdrive mode," which would surely win him further support.

Reports of the attack on Syria suggest that if the Bush Administration chooses to go further down this road, it looks as if the mainstream news media will continue to sleepwalk, acting as if Pentagon propaganda sources can be relied upon, and that this White House would never put political expediency before security.

Question of Russian aggression in Georgia revisited

American blogger Glenn Greenwald was recently smeared by a right-wing journal for daring to suggest that the events in Georgia were not a simple black and white matter of Russian aggression. Greenwald blogs:

Every time the major party candidates now mention Russia/Georgia -- including in the debates -- there is full, unequivocal agreement on everything, all premised on the comic-book, Good v. Evil narrative that Georgia is our stalwart democratic ally which, through no fault of their own, was victimized by an expansionist, war-seeking Russia, and we owe them our full protection and unwavering support. There is never a word of criticism toward Georgia or an acknowledgment of the role it played in provoking the conflict, in starting the war. That is the truth that cannot be spoken.

I made this point here at Jotman during the debates. First, when I live-blogged the first debate. And again, when the issue resurfaced in the second presidential debate. I live-jotted the latter debate also, typing my instant-reaction commentary in red:

BROKAW: Q: How to avoid another cold war?
McCAIN: Russia's behavior outside norms. I warned about Putin. KGB in his eyes. (Not smart to attack a leader you might have to work with, painting him as another Hitler). Got to make Russia realize penalties for naked aggression into tiny Georgia. (Use sticks, says nothing about carrots) Russians have to understand these activities not acceptable.
OBAMA: Resurgence of Russia, one of central issues. For most part I agree with Senator McCain. We have to provide moral support to all the nations that were former Soviet satellites. We have to help these countries improve their economies (What? I guess Obama is grasping for Polish-American votes or whatever. I don't think now is the time to extend foreign aid to more countries, and annoy Russia). Russia: energy key in dealing with Russia.

BROKAW: Russia = evil empire?
OBAMA: I would call it "evil behavior."
McCAIN: Maybe. If I say yes, that would mean we are back to the old cold war. But if I say "no," it excuses the bad behavior ... Georgia and Ukraine are gateways into Europe. Russia needs to recognize it's facing a firm USA. (I disagree completely with McCain, but I liked his response as sounded sincere or credible -- given that Obama was equally full of it on this one).

Watching the debate, it was evident that Obama was now talking about Russia like a foreign policy hawk. Obama's position had shifted considerably, however. When fighting broke out, whereas Obama had called upon "both sides" to use restraint; McCain blamed only the Russians. (The candidates' respective positions on the conflict in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak of fighting are presented side-by-side at Time Magazine, and were discussed by Zogby of the Huffington Post.)

The present controversy concerning the US candidates' position comes down to three basic issues: 1) the role Georgia appears to have played in starting the war; 2) the question as to whether the US had given the Georgian president assurances of support, thus emboldening Georgian president Saakashvili to attack; and 3) the question as to whether Georgia is actually a democracy.

First, as to who started the war, the NY Times reports, "In the field, there is evidence from an extensive set of witnesses that within 30 minutes of Mr. Saakashvili’s order, Georgia’s military began pounding civilian sections of the city of Tskhinvali, as well as a Russian peacekeeping base there, with heavy barrages of rocket and artillery fire. The barrages all but ensured a Russian military response, several diplomats, military officers and witnesses said." Clearly, Georgia either caused the outbreak of the war, or at least shares a lot of the blame.

Second, as to whether the US emboldened Georgia to strike Russia, FT reports that the US had trained Georgian commandos involved in the initial strikes against Russian troops stationed in South Ossetia. Eyewitness reports tell of Georgian aggression. A scholar at Monterrey Institute claims that the Georgian operation had been planned months ahead. An August 8 article in The Nation by Mark Ames noted that the US and UK blocked a Russian-sponsored UN resolution opposing "the use of force" tabled at the outbreak of hostilities; Ames viewed this as evidence that "United States and Britain" were "backing Saakashvili's invasion." The same article refers to a Georgia-hosted investor's conference that was a propaganda coup for Georgia and evidence of advanced planning. Wired correspondent Nathan Hodge -- who like the Monterrey scholar and blogger Greenwald has been also been smeared for not being sufficiently anti-Russian in his coverage of events -- reported how things he had heard and saw during a 2006 visit to Georgia seemed indicative of a willingness on the part of Georgians to seriously consider military options in respect to South Ossetia.

Third, McCain tells us Georgia is a shining beacon of democracy, but this recent NY Times story shows why this label may not be appropriate. This video --from a blog post at Wired -- shows "a sound weapon" used against some protesters on Nov 7, 2007. The scenes in the video are far more suggestive of a police state than any budding democracy. Finally, the Economist Unit ranked Georgia 9th from the bottom, giving it a score of "104" on its 2006 Democracy Index. With that score, Georgia did not make the "Flawed Democracy" category.

Although it is largely tangential to these points, I really think American leaders should exercise a little bit of humility when it comes to interpreting Russia's relations with former Soviet Republics. For example, whether the American leaders like to admit it or not, Georgia has long been to Russia something akin to what Panama has been to the the US.
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I blogged the Georgia-Russia crisis extensively. If you are interested in looking up what I wrote, you might start with this page.

Red Dawn remake

Surely the timing was a coincidence.* Nevertheless, I thought it an amusing one.

Harry E. Sloan, the Chairman and CEO of MGM, donated $38,500 to John McCain's campaign to win the Republican nomination in the primaries.

In May 2008 this heavyweight McCain campaign donor stood before an audience at Cannes and announced that his studio would produce a remake of Red Dawn -- the celebrated 1984 Cold War classic about an invasion of the United States by the armed forces of Russia and Cuba.

Scarcely three months later, McCain's good friend, Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili started a war with Russia. It was not long before John McCain had goaded the White House, the US news media -- and even Obama -- to match the bellicosity of his anti-Russian rhetoric.

If there is a lesson in all this, it is to be wary of remakes -- and those who produce them.
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* USDOF claims the timing was no coincidence.

Is the selling is overdone?

It has been one of the worst Octobers on record for Wall Street. Some traders have thrown out their charts and are seeking guidance from the stars. One observer asks whether the selling might be overdone. More here.

Meanwhile in Singapore

A group of Singapore citizens went before a court of law in the city state today. Their crime? Well, that's not exactly clear. Blogger Jacob reports:

When the hearing resumed at 3:30 pm, the court clerk spent the next 1 hour and 45 minutes reading out the charges to each of the defendants.

When it came to Mr Jufrie Mahmood, the officer asked him what language Mr Jufrie wanted the charge to be read in.

"English," the veteran oppositionist replied.

After the charges were read out, the clerk asked him: "Do you understand the charge?"

"I understand what was read out to me," Mr Jufrie replied, "what I don't understand is why are we being charged. You see groups of tourists and other people everyday in front of Parliament. Why are they all not charged?"

Singapore is the only advanced country in the world today in which ordinary citizens will actually get hauled before a judge for the crime of standing together in a group. Background and commentary here.

The people who Thai news media do not interview

Western journalists -- often encumbered by language barriers -- talk to them.

This fact prompts Bangkok Pundit to ask: why is it that Thai news media organizations refuse to send their journalists out into the Thai countryside to talk to people? Instead, they seem to "invent monologues about corruption and democracy to pass the time." BP highlights the important work several journalists -- all Western -- have done in the Thai countryside; recently I blogged about another such journalist.

Africa's best bloggers

The Christian Science Monitor published an interesting story earlier this year by Kari Barber who profiled two of Africa's outstanding bloggers, Congolese blogger Cédric Kalonji and Dakar-based Chadian blogger Makaila Nguebla.

Cédric Kalonji's blog is the more familiar to the outside world, having won the award for "Best French Language Blog of 2007" in Deutsche Welle's Best of the Blogs competition.* Barber quotes Cédric:

"Blogging allows me to be a middle man for Congo, between those in power and those without any, thanks just to free Internet and a small digital camera," says Kalonji, who does not have an Internet connection in his house and detects a nearby wireless signal on his laptop computer to update his blog.

Kalonji is among a growing number of bloggers in Africa who are using their websites to question or challenge their governments. But, although Internet access is slowly becoming more affordable and available in Africa, bloggers say their audience is still mostly outside the continent.

Concerning the other blogger profiled, Senegal-based Makaila Nguebla, Barber writes,

Makaila Nguebla receives phone calls and text messages tracking the movements of Chadian rebels who have been on the offensive in recent days. He publishes information about new attacks, along with opinion articles supporting the rebellion.

Mr. Nguebla sleeps next to his computer.

"This allows me to receive and follow, without delay, what is happening in Chad," Nguebla said. "I receive messages and telephone calls 24 hours a day."

Nguebla is one dedicated blogger!

Barber also spoke with Leonard Vincent of Reporters Without Borders, an an expert on freedom of the press issues in Africa. Leonard Vincent told the CSM reporter,

that while expanding freedom of speech in Africa is important, some opposition and rebel blogs are taking it too far.

"You have the personal bloggers and the political bloggers: Political parties publish whatever they want – full of libel, defamation, violence, sometimes very graphic images," Mr. Vincent says. "I have the feeling that the ones who are blogging in an individual way are more conscious of their responsibility and are more likely to be measured and moderate in the publication than those who use the Internet and their Web sites as war tools or propaganda tools."

For the time being, Vincent says, African governments don't seem too concerned by bloggers.

Whereas both Cedric and Makaila blog in French, a most informative -- albeit specialized -- African who blogs prolifically in English is Chido Makunike of African Agriculture. I recently met Chido at a conference in Bonn. I find Chido's blog indispensible for staying up-to-date on the impact of the food crisis on the continent. You can find links to these and other interesting African blogs here.
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* This year's Best of the Blogs (The BOBs) contest is presently taking place. DW's BOBs are described as "the world’s largest international Weblog awards for Weblogs, podcasts and videoblogs." The competition features interesting blogs from every continent. It provides insight into the vast scope of the world of blogging today.

CIA perspective on terrorist's favorite candidate

Following up on my previous post, a reviewer of Ron Suskind's The One Percent Doctrine notes:

Shortly before the 2004 presidential election, a videotape of Bin Laden vehemently criticizing Bush surfaced and was broadcast across the globe. According to Suskind, CIA analysts agreed that "bin Laden's message was clearly designed to assist the President's reelection." (Pages 335-336)

Is something like this -- or much worse -- likely to happen in the next two weeks? You betchya.
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Hat-tip: Ackerman

Why would Al-Qaeda support John McCain?

WaPo reports on posts that have been appearing some Al-Qaeda websites:

"Al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming election," said a commentary posted Monday on the extremist Web site al-Hesbah, which is closely linked to the terrorist group. It said the Arizona Republican would continue the "failing march of his predecessor," President Bush. . . .

In language that was by turns mocking and ominous, the newest posting credited al-Qaeda with having lured Washington into a trap that had "exhausted its resources and bankrupted its economy." It further suggested that a terrorist strike might swing the election to McCain and guarantee an expansion of U.S. military commitments in the Islamic world.

"It will push the Americans deliberately to vote for McCain so that he takes revenge for them against al-Qaeda," said the posting, attributed to Muhammad Haafid, a longtime contributor to the password-protected site. "Al-Qaeda then will succeed in exhausting America."

That is Al-Qaeda's overall global strategy in a nutshell. Al-Qaeda doesn't want a cool headed US president who is not trigger happy. Al-Qaeda needs McCain.

In fact, both organizations' aims are in alignment. Polling data indicates that the one concrete hope for the McCain campaign victory on November 4 would be if McCain could find some enemy to make a last-minute stand against: Al-Qaeda, Iran, Russia, China. Any will do.

But preferably, the terrorists. Engaging in tough-talk about terrorists would be a far less complicated affair than justifying war with Iran. A pre-election terror attack would likely boost the McCain campaign considerably. Back in February I blogged that an Al-Qaeda attack would be a godsend for McCain. And I wrote that Obama had better prepare for this scenario:

Obama would be well advised to position his campaign to meet the challenge of the unexpected.

Unfortunately, Obama does not appear to have effectively positioned his campaign to counter this eventuality. Obama has done little to differentiate himself from McCain on foreign policy issues generally. One obvious example: Obama has not exposed the dangers posed by McCain's reckless statements concerning Russian aggression. Far from it, Obama later mimicked McCain's position on Russia. Obama has not sufficiently exposed, challenged, and countered McCain's impulsive and potentially reckless hawkishness. Obama has not made the case that McCain is dangerous.

As a consequence, even at a time when Obama is leading by a big margin in the latest polls, most Americans continue to view Obama as "Hawk Light." That is a pity. The advantage to Americans -- and the world -- of having Obama instead of McCain occupy the White House cannot be measured on a simple "scale of relative hawkishness." McCain does not possess various qualities one would seek in a warrior-leader. By contrast, a far stronger case can be made that Obama exhibits characteristics of a successful "Commander in Chief." More on this here.

For the next two weeks, the world may well stand one major terror incident -- or act of war -- away from a McCain presidency.