Anti-coup book banned in Thailand

This is quite ironic. The week when Thais should be celebrating the restoration of freedom and democracy, a book written in condemnation of the coup gets banned.

Giles Ungpakorn's book, A Coup for the Rich, has been banned by Thai authorities.

It is available for download here (PDF).

In addition to being critical of Thailand's 2006 military coup, the book raised questions about the political role of the monarchy. Another recently banned book is The King Never Smiles -- which I have read, blogged and reviewed.

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Photo: by Jotman. The anti-coup pro-democracy demonstration of September 22, 2006 -- which I live-blogged (see here) -- was organized by Giles Ungpakorn (Wikipedia biography of Giles Ungpakorn)
h/t: Bangkok Pundit, who has posted here and here about Ungpakorn's book (also see New Mandala's post).

Arrested in Rangoon: blogger Nay Phone Latt

Burmese blogger, writer, and businessperson Nay Phone Latt* was arrested Tuesday at an internet cafe in Thingan Kyun Township, Rangoon. Both his houses were searched and the police even raided his aunt's home (Burmanet).

Mizzima reports that Internet cafes in the country have come under increased surveillance in recent weeks. Bloggers are on the run.

Another Burmese writer, Poet Saya Saw Wai, was arrested last week for writing a Valentines' day poem (the poem contained a hidden phrase: "Than Shwe is power crazy"). He was transferred to the notorious Insein prison on Saturday according to family members.
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*This is blogger Nay Phone Latt's website (Burmese).

Aleksanian: "canary in a cage" for human rights in Russia

Vasilii Georgievich Aleksanian is seriously ill with AIDS in Russian state custody, and the government has refused medical treatment while he awaits trial. A Russian reader comments:

I can recall dozens cases of unfair practice throughout the Yukos trial, but this is something outrageous. Now it's in the Russian web press, not paper-based of course... Some reports implied that Aleksanian was initially offered a deal: medical treatment in exchange for his confessions.

Thirty-six year old Aleksanian is a former vice-president of the Russian oil company YUKOS. Amnesty International has issued an urgent appeal that people contact Russian President Putin on his behalf. Your messages can be posted here (salutation: Dear President). Blogger Robert Amsterdam has more background.

New way to advertise your blog

You can write your message on "the wall." Rick did:

. . . you too can have any message you want sprayed on the wall by Palestinian artists for a bargain 30 euros . . . My mum will see this on Sunday and I am quietly confident I have cornered the more unusual end of the get well greetings market . . . Now, what other artifacts of oppression can I advertise on? (Crass, moi?)

The FAQ section of the website SendAMessage.nl says the idea "popped up at a workshop in Ramallah, Palestine, where Dutch advertising pro's worked with creative, young Palestinians." They explain the purpose of the project:

. . . your message reminds Palestinians trapped inside the Wall they have not been forgotten. You help to keep hope alive. 'Our' Palestinians want to send you one single, simple message: "we are human beings, just like you, with sense of humour and lust for life." That's why they do this, and enjoy it. . .

Proceeds go to an NGO. More at Ten Percent.
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Photo: Sendamessage/Ten Percent.

An unseen Bush catastrophe

Conventional wisdom holds that Bush is only responsible for two countries falling into chaos. Well, if Gwyn Dyer's report on Ethopia's invasion of Somalia last year is correct, then we should add at least one more country to the list, possibly two.* Concerning Somalia, Dyer writes that the United States

. . . developed a keen interest in the politics of the region after the atrocities of 9/11. At first the US just made deals with the various warlords to ensure that no jihadi fanatics created a base there. But it got more upset when an organization called the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) chased drove all the warlords out of Mogadishu in 2006 and gave the capital its first taste of peace and good government since 1991.The UIC was actually created by prominent merchants from the locally dominant Hawiye clan who wanted a safe environment in which to do business. The "Islamic" aspect of it was mainly there to provide a rallying point that other clans could identify with, though that obviously also attracted a certain number of earnest and bearded young men. Some of them, unfortunately, favored a rhetorical style that triggers a knee-jerk reaction in jittery post-9/11 Americans. The people of Mogadishu, enjoying their first taste of normality in 15 years, overwhelmingly supported the UIC, but the United States decided it must be overthrown. To do the job, Washington turned to its close ally Ethiopia, Somalia's perennial enemy. The Ethiopians, who have no interest in a stable and strong Somalia, were happy to oblige -- and for diplomatic cover, the US could use the "transitional federal government" of Somalia.

Dyer sees "more years of war to end the occupation" ahead, and predicts that "a lot more Somalis will die. All because they called it the Union of Islamic Courts." This is a tragedy.

Why are American policy makers so simple-minded in viewing foreigners? Just because a group calls itself Islamic means very little in itself. The only living person with the power to unite the Muslims of the world against the US would be an arrogant and reckless American president. And any of the leading Republican contenders for the White House might well fit this description a year from now.
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Notes: Ten Percent asks what the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2007 might mean for Eritrea in 2008.
Source: Dyer's article appeared in Arab News, December 25, 2007.
* Dyer may be overly optimistic. A Somali commentator wrote on a blog:

. . . the US sponorship of the invasion of Somalia by proxy via Ethiopia, is, in a sense, the best thing for Somali unity! the US is more than stupid to bring Ethiopian army to Somalia. Not only will the US fail to impose Etthiopian rule on Somalia-- but in five year's time, it will be Ethiopia that will be no more! . . .

. . . yes, we fight over clanism but nothing brings Somalis under the same sense of pride than Zinawi's army occupying Mogadishu and the USA mercenaries training them there and elswhere. The Bush neocons do not read history and Somalia will end their reign of terror!

The daily escape into Thailand

Video: by Jotman

New Thai prime minister Samak Sundaravej

He often hurls personal insults* at journalists during interviews; he used to have his own cooking show (before the generals took the TV station off the air following the coup); a right-winger in army backed governments accused of human rights abuses (update: read this post), he is now the leader of the anti-coup faction in Thailand; he doesn't speak English very well; his nose is so big that sign language interpreters refer to him simply as "Mr. Rose Apple Nose." And he admits to taking his marching orders from the deposed former prime minister who presently lives in a Hong Kong hotel.

Meet Samak Sundaravej, the new prime minister of Thailand.
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Photo: Samak goes shopping. From the Asia Tribune.
* At a news conference recently he became irritated when a female reporter pressed him on whether he would be prime minister. Rather than answer he shot back, asking if she had "sinful sex" the night before.

Protest leader recalls day of terror

September 27, 2007. Suspicious Burmese had predicted violence on this date, whose digits in the Gregorian calendar add up repeatedly to the astrologically powerful number 9: the 27th day of the 9th month in 2007.

The astrologist got this one right.

It was the day Japanese journalist Kenji Negai was murdered a soldier in cold blood. It was the day Burma's junta was irreparably disgraced before they eyes of the entire civilized world.

(Two posts, here and here, summarize what the outside world was learning about this day as it unfolded.)

Protest leader U Pan Cher (more about him here) helped to lead protesters on 27 September, as he had on previous days. At a safe house in Thailand, he shared his firsthand perspective on that ominous and decisive day.*

U PAN CHER: On the 27th, when we got together for the protest, we planned for three columns this time. U Pan Cher then describes the paths of the three columns; he was in the third. Others columns came out organized by others. All together that day there were about 8-9 columns in Rangoon.

JOTMAN: Were you involved in the planning of the three columns?

U PAN CHER: The students organized these. This day the students are the majority. We listened to their plan and said, "that's sounds good, we would support it." On the 27th, there were fewer monks involved in the protests. Because on the 26th there had been heavy raids on the monasteries. There was great brutality. When the monastery doors remained closed they rammed the doors with their trucks. And in some places, guns were fired. I guess about 3-5,000 monks were arrested on the 26th -- and lots of them injured.

The first column to get shot at was the first one. When they reached the State High School #3 of Tamwe. Some two students were killed when they were hit by cars being driven into them.

The parents and students inside Tamwe State High School #3 shouted: "The military orders given by General Aung San are not to kill the people." So they got angry and shot into the school also. So secondary school students got shot and died. . . . A lot of students' parents got injured.

Some other information we got was not exact. Because we were in the protest, and we shared information among ourselves, people to people. So we heard this from others.

JOTMAN: And you were to meet at Sule? All three columns?

U PAN CHER: The meeting point is Sule. As soon as they heard about the shooting of the Tamwe column -- at the time they were at Gabare Pagoda Road -- they dispersed the column and rushed to Sule. All the people rushed there to regroup, by whatever car they found, they asked the drivers to take them to Sule Pagoda.

JOTMAN: You are referring here to the column that got shot at?

U PAN CHER: The first column was the one shot at State High School #3. The other two columns safely arrived at Sule Pagoda. Their target was the biggest column, which was column #1. So the other columns got by.

U pan cher begins to draw a map of the Sule Pagoda area. It would help him explain to me the terrible events that followed:



* Note: This post is Part II (see Part I) of my exclusive interview with U Pan Cher, a leader of the 2007 protests in Rangoon.
Photos: by Jotman.

A good man is murdered and Kenya unravels

Melitus Mugabe Were, bright young hope of Kenya, has been brutally murdered. Here's a brief biography of this outstanding African man:

Mr. Were was an opposition politician who grew up in a slum, became a businessman and then gave back. He sponsored teenage mothers to go to college, married a woman of another ethnic group and resisted his party’s often belligerent talk. As Kenya slid into chaos this past month after a disputed election, he shuttled between leaders of different ethnic groups and tried to organize a peace march.

In the wake of this killing, the whole country looks to be coming apart according to a report by Jeffrey Gettleman:

. . . the shooting appears not to have been a robbery but a hit. Word spread fast and violently, with opposition supporters rioting across Nairobi, the capital. The unrest seems to be escalating, and Kenyans are now literally ripping their country apart, uprooting miles of railroad tracks, chopping down telephone poles, burning government offices and looting schools. Militias from opposing ethnic groups are battling in several towns and Kenyan army helicopters fired warning shots on Tuesday to disperse them. There have been reports of forced circumcisions and beheadings.

A question I blogged about at the beginning of the month may now resurface: what -- if anything -- can Barack Obama do at this point to help bring peace and stability to the land of his father?

Ralph Nader's assessment of Hillary Clinton

The chances that John Edwards, the most progressive candidate in the US presidential race, will capture the US presidency in 2008 are looking slim. So what of the alternatives? I cringed while reading a Newsweek interview with Barack Obama: more platitudes. The Republican candidates -- down to the last Mike, Rudy, and John -- strike me as unhinged. Yes, even John.

Granted, John McCain's positions on the environment, immigration, and human rights are sensible. But as Johann Hari writes, "It is a sign of how far to the right the Republican Party has drifted that these are considered signs of liberalism, rather than basic humanity." Hari notes that John McCain's stance on foreign policy questions reeks of the foolhardy bravado of all US imperialists:

His most thorough biographer – and recent supporter – Matt Welch concludes: "McCain's programme for fighting foreign wars would be the most openly militaristic and interventionist platform in the White House since Teddy Roosevelt... [it] is considerably more hawkish than anything George Bush has ever practised." With him as president, we could expect much more aggressive destabilisation of Venezuela and Bolivia – and more.

Johann Hari might have also noted McCain's propensity on the campaign trail to propagate untoward fear of radical Islam and the "Caliphate."

After seven years of the worst government in the history of the United States, modest degrees of reasonableness seem revolutionary and hopeful. When Americans look to the Republicans in 2008 -- even to John McCain -- they look at the world through a broken lens. Sadly, it seems to be the case that Democratic Party supporters who turn to Hillary Clinton are no different.

Say what you will about Raph Nader*, he always exhibits independence in his outlook. So it's worth asking why this creative American thinker will not be supporting Hillary Clinton for president. Nader reminds us how little Clinton did to check the growth of corporate power, and how much he did to tilt the balance of power against institutions of civil society. In Nader's opinion, the Clinton Administration represented a vast, wasted opportunity. No less so, perhaps, than the squandering of global sympathy and domestic resolve by Bush post 9/11. Ralph Nader writes:

The 1990's were the first decade without the spectre of the Soviet Union. There was supposed to be a "peace dividend" that would reduce the vast, bloated military budget and redirect public funds to repair or expand our public works or infrastructure. . .

There are changes both the Clinton Administration actively championed that further entrenched corporate power over our economy and government during the decade. He pushed through Congress the NAFTA and the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements that represented the greatest surrender in our history of local, state and national sovereignty to an autocratic, secretive system of transnational governance. This system subordinated workers, consumers and the environment to the supremacy of globalized commerce.

That was just for starters. Between 1996 and 2000, he drove legislation through Congress that concentrated more power in the hands of giant agribusiness, large telecommunications companies and the biggest jackpot-opening the doors to gigantic mergers in the financial industry. The latter so-called "financial modernization law" sowed the permissive seeds for taking vast financial risks with other peoples' money (ie. pensioners and investors) that is now shaking the economy to recession.

Bush certainly pushed things to the lunatic extreme, but he wasn't starting from scratch. Now the US is not just faced with the perpetuation of a bankrupt ideology, but millions of actual bankrupt families.

And the best the country can do is turn to the Clintons? Ralph Nader has a point.
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Photo: An advertisement for An Unreasonable Man, a 2007 documentary film that traces the life and career of the political activist Ralph Nader (Wikipedia). I thought the film was terrific and I urge all my readers to see it.
*The synopsis page for the documentary's website provides a concise biography of Ralph Nader: ". . . Nader built a legislative record that is the rival of any contemporary president. Many things we take for granted including seat belts, airbags, product labeling, no nukes, even the free ticket you get after being bumped from an overbooked flight are largely due to the efforts of Ralph Nader and his citizen groups." Today, Ralph Nader, progressive icon of the 1970s, is blamed by many democrats for having played the spoiler in 2000. They claim he took enough votes away from Al Gore in Florida for George Bush to win, but a political science researcher claims to have disproved this theory. Nader says that his decision to run in 2008 will be determined by whether the Democratic Party selects Hillary Clinton as its nominee.

Global citizenship quote

"My principles are universal. My attachment is to all the world, and not to any particular part, and if what I advance is right, it is right no matter where or who it comes from."

- Thomas Paine, The American Crisis, No. 7, 1778.

An ordinary man who became a protest leader

Jotman presents excerpts from his exclusive interview with a most extraordinary leader of the protests in Rangoon of September 2007.

Tens of thousands of Rangoon townsfolk had gathered in the vicinity of Minigon Pagoda in Rangoon; among them were thousands of monks. Suddenly the crowd grew very quiet. A man had begun to speak. He was now a familiar figure to many protesters, distinguished by a beige turban, yellow Aung San Suu Kyi shirt, and long black beard. The Sikh, who goes by the name U Pan Cher, called out to the crowd:

Join together with us! The monks have been beaten brutally in the area of the Eastern moats of Shwedagon Pagoda. If you think yourself as Burmese and Buddhist, think of what we are doing now. Think of the people of Burma and Buddhism. Do we just bow down and accept this oppression?

Now monks have been killed. And tortured. They have murdered our monks! I ask you this question: Are you going to fight and die? Or sit back and die? If you want to fight with me, leave your fear behind. And bring your courage!

I will stand in front to fight. If we all join in this fight, the military regime will be gone within a few hours. Join together with us and fight!

Sitting on the floor of a safe house in Thailand with U Pan Cher and an interpreter, I saw tears form in U Pan Cher's eyes. During my interview with U Pan Cher, I had asked him to recount the exact words he spoke to the crowd -- reproduced above.

U Pan Cher was to give many such speeches, but what happened after he spoke to this particular crowd at 2:45 pm on Wednesday September 26, 2007 was a humbling experience. Here is how U Pan Cher described the remarkable scene that followed:

The surprising thing was that at the traffic junction, the rich people in their cars, they left their car and joined the protest. And the other people on the bus, they left the bus to join. Even the rickshaw men, they left their rickshaws to join with us. All the people were getting angry about what was happening. And everyone was crying. It was as if the tears were flowing into streams, and these streams were passing into rivers, and the rivers were flowing into the ocean. We were united in a sea of resolve. Not only were Burmese Buddhists participating, but also Muslims, Christians, and others -- all joined together as one.

Who was this eloquent leader of Rangoon's protesting townsfolk? What else had he said and done? Our talk lasted three hours, and when I walked away I felt had heard an incredibly inspiring story. In a fortnight, one ordinary man had become somebody extraordinary.

U Pan Cher had discovered something powerful within himself during those fateful days, and neither he nor the thousands whose lives he touched will ever be the same.

What untapped hidden potentials lie dormant within each of us?

Although U Pan Cher and the circumstances may seem exotic, I see in his story a message for people everywhere. Because from the streets of Rangoon, U Pan Cher spoke not only of an oppressed country called Burma, but to a society where racial, religious, and ethnic divisions take a back seat to the common fight for human dignity and freedom.

Indonesia's General Suharto and the mass murders

Suharto died on Sunday. Two years ago John Pilger wrote a preliminary obituary for the former Indonesian dictator (via Anthony Loenstein):

Forty years ago this month, Major General Suharto began a seizure of power in Indonesia by unleashing a wave of killings that the CIA described as "the worst mass murders of the second half of the 20th century". Much of this episode was never reported and remains secret. None of the reports of recent terror attacks against tourists in Bali mentioned the fact that near the major hotels were the mass graves of some of an estimated 80,000 people killed by mobs orchestrated by Suharto and backed by the American and British governments.

A story in Time Magazine dated Dec. 17, 1966 reported (via Wikipedia):

Communists, red sympathisers and their families are being massacred by the thousands. Backlands army units are reported to have executed thousands of communists after interrogation in remote jails. Armed with wide-bladed knives called parangs, Moslem bands crept at night into the homes of communists, killing entire families and burying their bodies in shallow graves.

The murder campaign became so brazen in parts of rural East Java, that Moslem bands placed the heads of victims on poles and paraded them through villages. The killings have been on such a scale that the disposal of the corpses has created a serious sanitation problem in East Java and Northern Sumatra where the humid air bears the reek of decaying flesh. Travellers from those areas tell of small rivers and streams that have been literally clogged with bodies.

"Whereas much of the anti-PKI pogroms in the rest of the country were carried out by Islamic political organizations in the name of jihad, the killings in Bali were done in the name of Hinduism" observes an author of the Wikipedia biography of Suharto.

The Year of Living Dangerously is a novel by Christopher Koch, which was made into a film in 1982, directed by Peter Weir. It tells the story of some Western journalists caught up in these events. It ranks with "The Killing Fields" as one of the greatest films about Southeast Asia.
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Photo: By Jotman. Shows Bali where "possibly more than 100,000 Balinese were killed although the exact numbers are unknown to date and the events remain legally undisclosed" ('Bali', in Robert Cribb, ed., The Indonesian killings of 1965-1966: studies from Java and Bali (Clayton, Vic.: Monash University Centre of Southeast Asian Studies, Monash Papers on Southeast Asia no 21, 1990), pp. 241-248 via Wikipedia).

China jot

• In 2008 China and India will be the largest contributers to worldwide growth for the first time.

• 70% of 2 million annual deaths attributed to cancer in China may be pollution-related.

Sources: IMF (via The Economist); statistic attributed to "cancer experts" -- from a speech by Pan Yue, deputy director the State Environmental Protection Administration, that was posted on the SEPA website (via The Economist).

Burma Smile

I took lots of pictures of the "melon gang," but this one is my favorite.

Global crisis jot

“The current crisis is not only the bust that follows the housing boom,” Mr. Soros declared. “It’s basically the end of a 60-year period of continuing credit expansion based on the dollar as the reserve currency.”

- Investor and philanthropist George Soros at Davos this week.

The rise of the Second World

Thailand's level of development is far beyond that of neighboring Cambodia. So much so that calling both nations "developing" amounts to a grossly misleading kind of labeling. But that's how both nations routinely get described. This was a point Collier made in his recent book The Bottom Billion. Collier said the West should ask how best it may assist the poorest one billion human beings, and not lump them together with more advanced countries.

Perhaps we should refer to countries like Thailand, Brazil or Turkey as "Second World." That's the term Parag Khanna uses for them in “The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order.” An extract from his important new book appears in this Sunday's New York Times Magazine. Khanna says US global hegemony is already a thing of the past.

Khanna envisions a world with three superpowers: the US, Europe, and China. Each power competes with the other two for the allegiance of states in the Second World. The Second World, in this vision, holds the balance of power.

Blogging from Asia, it's easy to nod in agreement. From my vantage point (Bangkok), Khanna's Second World has arrived.

When Thailand's king celebrated his 80th Birthday, one guest of honor was the Defense Minister of China. Yet Thailand is an ally of the United States. Or is it? That's Thailand's ideal strategy for this new era: play China and the US off against one another. Be on good terms with both powers, but don't let either think they've won you over. An alliance between a second tier power and and a superpower is not a steady marriage in the new world order. It looks more like dating. Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, and Egypt -- to name but a few -- are other Second World powers which have already started playing the new dating game.

Khanna points to the new global economic reality. In just thirty years, global economic power has shifted three times. Until the 1980s, trans-Altlantic trade dominated, but by the 1990s the trans-Pacific trade was most consequential. Today, trade within the India-Japan-Australia triangle is greatest, according to Khanna. Most of the world's wealth is concentrated in Asia. Khanna writes:

Like Europeans, Asians are insulating themselves from America’s economic uncertainties. Under Japanese sponsorship, they plan to launch their own regional monetary fund, while China has slashed tariffs and increased loans to its Southeast Asian neighbors.

Last week at Davos, George Soros said that the financial crisis centered in the US will accelerate the divestment of Asia from the US.

Khanna's comments about China are also worth quoting as they are prescient -- China being the big new factor in the world:

The East Asian Community is but one example of how China is also too busy restoring its place as the world’s “Middle Kingdom” to be distracted by the Middle Eastern disturbances that so preoccupy the United States. In America’s own hemisphere, from Canada to Cuba to Chávez’s Venezuela, China is cutting massive resource and investment deals. Across the globe, it is deploying tens of thousands of its own engineers, aid workers, dam-builders and covert military personnel. In Africa, China is not only securing energy supplies; it is also making major strategic investments in the financial sector. The whole world is abetting China’s spectacular rise as evidenced by the ballooning share of trade in its gross domestic product — and China is exporting weapons at a rate reminiscent of the Soviet Union during the cold war, pinning America down while filling whatever power vacuums it can find. Every country in the world currently considered a rogue state by the U.S. now enjoys a diplomatic, economic or strategic lifeline from China, Iran being the most prominent example.

The main problem with Khanna's tripartite division of the world is that it would seem to pit Europe against the US. I don't see how this can happen without China emerging with a decisive advantage over the other two powers. China won't actually dictate terms to quite the extent America could in the 1990s, but by its intransigence -- by its demonstrated willingness to put trade interests before all else -- it is likely to exercise a veto-by-default over any progressive international policies of any kind. To a large extent, it already does. For example, I doubt Collier's ideas about helping the "Bottom Billion" finds quite the enthusiastic audience in Beijing as they do in London. Will China care any more about the global environment than it cares about its own poisoned countryside? Will China will put greater emphasis on human rights abroad than it does at home? Neither seems likely.

The only hope of countering China's indifference to issues of global importance will be US and European unity on the global issues of the day. To some extent, Khanna acknowledges this. One of Khanna's points of advice to the next US president is to

. . . convene a G-3 of the Big Three. But don’t set the agenda; suggest it. These are the key issues among which to make compromises and trade-offs: climate change, energy security, weapons proliferation and rogue states. Offer more Western clean technology to China in exchange for fewer weapons and lifelines for the Sudanese tyrants and the Burmese junta. And make a joint effort with the Europeans to offer massive, irresistible packages to the people of Iran, Uzbekistan and Venezuela — incentives for eventual regime change rather than fruitless sanctions. A Western change of tone could make China sweat. Superpowers have to learn to behave, too.

As I see it, either the US and Europe will learn to work together as equal partners, or shortly we will all be living in China's ravaged backyard. Unless the US and Europe largely cooperate, China's policy of trade first wins by default. Moreover, the West must inspire the emerging democracies of the Second World by its own example. In fact, if there's going to be a watchword for this new era of global diplomacy, I would say it's "leadership by example."

Yesterday's joint statement on Burma, issued by the foreign ministers of the US, France and the UK, was a small but significant step in the right direction.

Get ready, China's year is coming

With the Beijing Olympics scheduled for August, 2008 marks China's coming of age. The lunar new year falls on February 7. And it's a Year of the Rat.*

I took this photo of a worker in Macau. She is putting up some street decorations for Chinese New Year festivities.**

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* Rats were born in 1912, 1924, 1936, 1948, 1960, 1972, 1984, and 1996.
** On Chinese New Year's day in Macau, The Police will be giving a concert at The Venetian. At Jotazine.com you will find some jots related to Macau travel.

UK, US, and French foreign ministers' joint statement on Burma at Davos

This statement is timely and significant. The foreign ministers of the UK, US and France have just issued a joint statement concerning Burma at the World Economic Forum. I have reproduced the statement in its entirety.

JOINT STATEMENT ON BURMA BY THE UK, US AND FRENCH
FOREIGN MINISTERS AT THE WORLD ECONOMIC
FORUM IN DAVOS

The Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum at Davos is a unique
event. No other occasion brings together so many of the world’s leaders
from all fields. For over three decades now, these meetings have
provided a global platform for collaboration and action to address
international priorities of concern to us all.

One such priority is the urgent need for progress towards a transition to
democracy and improved human rights in Burma. The fact that we have
chosen to write about this issue, with so many competing priorities,
should underline the strength of our governments’ determination to
support the people of Burma in their pursuit of a peaceful, prosperous
and democratic future. We have repeatedly made clear that the situation
in Burma cannot continue, and that we remain committed to helping the
people of Burma.

It is now more than four months since the world was horrified by the
violent repression of peaceful demonstrations in Burma. The dramatic
pictures seen around the world of the brutality directed against peaceful
protestors, including monks and nuns, were truly shocking. We cannot
afford to forget. We must convince the Burmese regime to meet the
demands of the international community and respect the basic rights of
Burma’s people.

The UN Security Council in October spelled out its expectations and
reiterated those expectations on January 17. First, the early release of
all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and the creation of
conditions for a genuine dialogue between the Government and the
opposition. Second, full co-operation and constructive engagement with
the UN. Third, the need for the regime to address the economic,
humanitarian and human rights concerns of the Burmese people.
Several months on, however, we find the regime has met none of these
demands.

The regime claims to be moving ahead with its roadmap to civilian rule.
However the process, already 14 years old, is open-ended, and many
key political actors, not least Aung San Suu Kyi, are excluded. There
can be little doubt that only genuine and inclusive dialogue can deliver
national reconciliation and stability for Burma and its neighbours.
We call on all those attending the World Economic Forum to
demonstrate that, while the regime may be indifferent to the suffering of
the Burmese people, the world is not.

We ask you to support the return to Burma by UN Special Adviser
Gambari as soon as possible, and to urge the regime to cooperate fully
with him and the UN. We call on the regime to act on the
recommendations of UN Human Rights Envoy Pinheiro; to release all
political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi; and to launch a
substantive, time-bound dialogue with democratic leaders and ethnic
minority representatives, as called for in Aung San Suu Kyi’s statement
of November 8.

A unified call for genuine and peaceful political reconciliation and reform
will be heard in Burma. We would not live up to our values if we ignored
Burma's plight.

DAVID MILIBAND CONDOLEEZZA RICE BERNARD KOUCHNER

Burma and other countries in the region take notice: Europe and America will not let the plight of the Burmese be ignored any longer. That's the message this statement sends.

Why the Thai coup of 2006 failed

The Thai cat pictured in the photo has reached a point where she enjoys some perspective on life in the Kingdom. Likewise, observers of Thailand have at long last attained an inkling of perspective on the coup of 2006 and its aftermath.

That's no small accomplishment. Events of the past two years have included the toppling of an elected prime minister by military coup, rule by an interim government, the rewriting of the Thai constitution, followed in December '07 by elections, and presently the inauguration of a parliament led by a coalition government allied with the exiled former prime minister.

One astute commentator, veteran Thai politics observer Bangkok Pundit recently provided this insightful analysis into the "failure" of the coup:

How, in today's world, could a military-installed government institute significant reforms? . . . There are fundamental, intractable disputes on many issues, but whenever there is some sort of dispute it gets painted as disunity/lack of harmony and the future of the nation is in peril. There is no longer a small royalist, conservative elite who sets the agenda for the country and the sooner they learn to deal with this the better.

I think the problem for the Surayud government was the excessively long period between the coup and the election of 15 months for a caretaker government. This was needed to put key personnel in positions - we couldn't have had an August election as this would have allowed the new government to influence the Army C-in-C position, ensure a more favourable constitution was in place, increase the military budget, and to further demonise Thaksin. For the last one in particular, this failed and their failure to convince the population on the "evils" of Thaksin might unravel the "gains" made by the conservative, royalist elite. In fact, the longer they kept the Surayud government in power to demonise Thakin, the less it helped. This was not necessarily Surayud's fault though.

This is among the finest examples of how the first draft of the most recent epoch of Thai history is being written. I believe Bangkok Pundit's analysis here is right on the mark.

Yet,the next draft of this history will be written by the victors -- whoever they may be. The conservative royalist elite knows this as well as anyone. And they have lived through plenty of of history. So one question at the back of my mind is this: will the Thai elite concede that the 2006 coup was a failed experiment, and allow the mechanisms of democratic government to flourish once more? Or will they conclude from this historical episode that the coup of 2006 didn't go far enough? That their soft-authoritarian approach to reforming Thailand was doomed from the start?

I'm also concerned about another, related question. This emerging history of the times may well present a major "loss of face" to some powerful members of the elite. Especially if the apparent victors do not tread very carefully at this juncture, there could be another coup, perhaps violence.

If enduring democratic rule is restored to Thailand in short order, even those who vehemently opposed the coup of 2006 can agree that it was not a total failure. And such "success" -- if it comes -- will have been largely dependent on a special historical context; one with an approaching expiry date.

The whole context of the Thai political scene today is contingent on what happens within the House of Chakri. The King is aging and was recently unwell and uncertainty surrounds succession. Although "Thai Style Democracy" proponents argue the Thai coup serves a corrective to the excesses of democracy (a standpoint I dispute), this political "tradition" has surely run its course. It is running out of time.

The uniqueness of the epoch cannot be overstated. And this important fact leaves an opening for the democratic opposition to extend a face-saving olive branch to the elite. The only measure of the success of the 2006 coup ought to be the extent and speed by which democracy is restored in its aftermath. By this criteria, let us hope it will shortly be proven a successful coup; and if and when this happy day arrives, let it be said that were it not for an ancient and venerable king, the outcome would likely not have been so bright.

Winston Churchill's maxim is something for any new Thai government and its supporters to reflect upon:

In victory, magnanimity.

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Photo: by Jotman. Though her new-found perspective is priceless, our Siamese cat sits above a precipice. She must watch her step.
Note: Second to last paragraph has been edited since original posting.

Can blogging save journalism? Part I

". . . Americans being the biggest cowards on the planet. . ."
- One Night at the Call Center by Chetan Bhagat (Indian novelist)*

". . . a bellicose nervous-nellyism is now a major part of our identity in the eyes of the world" writes US journalist James Fallows. Fallows points out that if Americans come across as wimps, it's organizations like Fox News that have rendered the American people ill-informed, ignorant, and ultimately, fearful to the point of idiocy (just listen to the Republican presidential candidates attempt to scare up support for their campaigns: Al Quaeda couldn't buy this kind of publicity!).

I believe symptoms of the decline in quality journalism range from the Bush presidency and the whole Iraq war fiasco, to the current global financial meltdown. David Simon*, a former Baltimore Sun reporter, views the city where he worked in the 80s and 90s as a case study in the lost art:

So in a city where half the adult black males are unemployed, where the unions have been busted, and crime and poverty have overwhelmed one neighborhood after the next, the daily newspaper no longer maintains a poverty beat or a labor beat. The city courthouse went uncovered for almost a year at one point. The last time a reporter was assigned to monitor a burgeoning prison system, I was a kid working the night desk.

Soon enough, when technology arrived to test the loyalty of longtime readers and the interest of new ones, the newspaper would be offering to cover not more of the world and its issues, but less of both -- and to do so with younger, cheaper employees, many of them newspaper-chain transplants with no organic sense of the city's history.

In place of comprehensive, complex and idiosyncratic coverage, readers of even the most serious newspapers were offered celebrity and scandal, humor and light provocation -- the very currency of the Internet itself.

Charge for that kind of product? Who would dare?

An intelligent society faced with our present predicament would likely decide that support for quality journalism is at least as critical as promoting higher education. And we know universities and libraries pay society back indirectly, so they are widely supported. We do not expect these institutions to make a profit. Why should journalism be different?
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*Simon, now executive producer of HBO's "The Wire," wrote this outstanding firsthand account of the decline in quality journalism in a US city. It was published in the Washington Post.
*Longer extract of this book is available at the blog of James Fallows.

Why did Bush go to the Middle East?

If the question reads like a Zen koan,* maybe the resemblance is no accident. Maybe asking this question is sufficient to awaken people to the precarious state of the world economy.

American journalist Greg Palast thinks so. And he has come up with an interesting explanation to account for Bush's first foreign trip of 2008. Palast says it had little to do with peace in Palestine, Iraq, or the administration's obsession about Iran. Palast writes:

Since taking office, Bush has doubled the federal debt to more than $5 trillion. And, according to US Treasury figures, on net, foreign investors have purchased close to 100% of that debt. That’s $3 trillion borrowed from the Saudis, the Chinese, the Japanese and others.

Now, Bush, our Debt Junkie-in-Chief, needs another fix. The US Treasury, Citibank, Merrill-Lynch and other financial desperados need another hand-out from Abdullah’s stash. Abdullah, in turn, gets this financial juice by pumping it out of our pockets at nearly $100 a barrel for his crude.

Bush needs the Saudis to charge us big bucks for oil. The Saudis can’t lend the US Treasury and Citibank hundreds of billions of US dollars unless they first get these US dollars from the US. The high price of oil is, in effect, a tax levied by Bush but collected by the oil industry and the Gulf kingdoms to fund our multi-trillion dollar governmental and private debt-load. . .

Bush is there to assure Abdullah that, unlike Dubai’s ports purchase debacle, there will be no political impediment to the Saudi’s buying up Citibank nor the isle of Manhattan. . .

It’s the price paid to buy back our money from abroad that’s killing us. . . . That hefty interest bill then pushes adjustable rate mortgages into the stratosphere and pushes manufacturing into China by making borrowing and energy costs impossible to overcome. . . .

It turns out our question is nowhere near as perplexing as a Zen riddle. But then I suppose the US president is no Zen master either.
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*The question, "Why did Bodhidharma go to the East?"is a Zen Koan traditionally asked of meditating monks in the Zen tradition.
Picture: Zen patriarch Bodhidharma, depicted in a woodblock print by Yoshitoshi, 1887.

Fox News Award

This week's Fox News Award* goes to CNN for its "Breaking News" coverage of an alleged aggressive confrontation by Iranian patrol boats and American warships in the Persian Gulf last week. I happened to be watching CNN when the story broke, and at the time, I was taken aback by CNN's approach: information from Pentagon sources were reported by CNN journalists as if they were established facts.

Especially after these years of news distortion by the Pentagon(remember Jessica Lynch?), CNN should know better than to report Pentagon-sourced stories uncritically when they break. Some recent reports suggest that the threating voices heard on the tapes released by the Pentagon may not have originated in the vicinity of the speedboats after all.

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*Jotman's Fox News Award goes to a media organization that has gone the extra mile during the course of the week to make the public more stupid.

Looking into China

Unlike Jotman, pollution doesn't get stopped at the border. Lacking the proper travel document, this is as close as I got to China today.

I took this photo from the Hong Kong side, looking into China's Guangdong Province, sometimes referred to as the "factory of the world." The economy of the province is on track to surpass that of Spain or Ireland in a few years.

Thai anarchist captured on film

I blogged the celebration that marked the Thai King's 80th birthday. As you can tell from the post, it was spectacular: tens of thousands of Thais dressed in yellow shirts singing melodious royal anthems, followed by fireworks.

But I didn't show you this video clip (I thought it was lost), taken from a markedly different vantage point. One would have never guessed this sort of thing was going on just below the surface.

His intention? Well, as far as I could tell, the fellow pictured in the video was attempting -- with great determination -- to set the whole place on fire.

In Thailand: the people Vs the powerful

So far, the New Year in Thailand has seen powers behind the interim, junta-appointed government take every opportunity to whittle down the electoral advantage of the anti-coup party. The main instrument (so far) of their intentions is the Election Commission. The EC has issued a number of so-called "red-cards" and "yellow cards" mostly to PPP party candidates, effectively disqualifying these elected candidates on the grounds of various alleged infractions.

Well, it turns out that some rural voters of northern Thailand -- the people who elected the disqualified candidates -- are not amused. And they are taking to the streets. In what may well be the most honest editorial published by a Thai paper since the coup of September 2006, Bangkok Post (via Bangkok Pundit) sums up the predicament faced by the Thai government:

In response to the protest in Buri Ram province last week, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said: ''Thailand cannot use mob rule over the law. To do so would bring the country to a halt.''

He is right. But unfortunately his words carry little weight, coming from a man who took power after the military used tanks to subvert the will of the people. This is why coups don't rescue democracy; violence begets violence. And it will take time, patience and a lot of restraint from all sides to break away from the consequences of the many radical events that have happened during the past few years.

Think about the situation: the generals tore up the 1997 Constitution and now expect villagers to respect both a constitution drafted by the military and new laws passed in a non-elected Parliament. It is certainly understandable that the rural masses who supported deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra no longer trust the ''rule of law'' . . .

And the unrest continue. The Nation reported Sunday (also via Bangkok Pundit): "Two disqualified Chart Thai Party candidates led about 200 villagers from Chainart to protest at the Election Commission head office Sunday morning."

Stay tuned.

Burma Smile

I was taking a walk in the rain when the beauty of this backyard scene caught my attention. It was not until I looked at the house more closely that I noticed the small child. For a time the boy stood motionless on the fence, watching me through a thick curtain of pouring rain. I only just managed to snap this picture before he disappeared -- quite suddenly -- into the house.

India's doomsday machine?

Among those destined to be most badly affected by a new machine announced in India this week are its intended beneficiaries: people in developing countries.

The new product is a car priced to compete with motorcycles. By far the world's cheapest car, Tata Motor's new "Nano" is expected to sell for only $2,200.

Possible Impacts of the Nano Car:

• Rreferring to the low-cost car, Chief United Nations climate scientist Rajendra Pachauri, who shared last year's Nobel Peace Prize said, "I am having nightmares."*
  
• More congested roads: Imran of Hyderabad told the Times of India: "I would like to leave India the very day this car comes on road. I cannot imagine commuting for 4-5 hours between my home and office (because of the congestion)."
• Pressure to invest more in highways and road infrastructure. Such projects would likely come at the expense of upgrades in rail transport systems.
  
• Sales of two-wheelers is expected to decline. (On the other hand, sales of motorbikes may increase if motorbike prices drop in response to competition from the automakers. Either way, the added competition probably spells lower profits for two-wheel vehicle manufacturers).
• Increased steel prices and fuel prices.
• The Nano may spell the end of the auto-rickshaw or tuk-tuk.

Related Trends

• This cheap car designed for India is also intended for export and Thailand tops this list: "Another component maker Rico Auto has entered into a long-term supply agreement with Tata Motors. It expects to make Rs 2,200 on each Nano car sale from its ancillary supplies. Rico Auto may also take its tie-up forward to Bangkok where Tata might expand soon."
• The Japanese government -- which funds the construction of roads and bridges in places like Cambodia -- may wake up to discover that Indian auto-makers have become the major beneficiaries of its foreign aid.
• Indian peasants, a number of whom were relocated to make room for the Tata plant, are protesting the new car, claiming Tata Motors promised them good jobs which have not materialized.
• What Nano is to automobiles, "One Child Per Laptop" (OLPC) is to personal computers: a low-priced alternative designed specifically for consumers in the developing world. (I have blogged about the OLPC/XO Laptop program).

Specs for Tata Motor's Nano Car

• The four-door subcompact Nano has a two-cylinder 0.6 litre gasoline engine with 33 horsepower, giving it a top speed of about 100 km/h (60 mph), according to Tata. It gets 21.2 km per litre (50 miles per gallon). More Nano car specifications here.
  

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*Any new global warming treaty that fails to mandate emission limits for India and China looks increasingly pointless
Nano car specifications: Tata Motors website, Reuters, Times of India (mentions rival low-cost vehicles)
Other perspectives: Blogging from Bangalore, Bhanu provides both an original perspective and critical analysis of the Nano car (see also Bhanu's remarks in Comments, below). The Washington Post also has worthwhile coverage of Nano: see this story for more background, this commentary by Mira Kamdar for an elaboration of environmental concerns (and hopes), and this chart which shows how the Nano car stacks up against the Model T Ford.

Countries at Risk of Political Instability in 2008

This map (Economist via Bangkok Pundit and Thai News) shows countries the news magazine considers at the highest risk of political instability in 2008. Bangkok Pundit took one look at Thailand (colored black = highest risk) and asked:

So why did we have the coup again?

That's a good question. In September 2006 Thailand went from being the most stable country in the region -- a model democracy for the developing world -- to a most unstable situation. And the change came overnight. Of course the map isn't perfect. A glance at Africa reveals that the Economist misread the situation in Kenya, but this failure of foresight suggests the journal's editors were conservative in this risk assessment. (By this map, even Pakistan is a safer bet than Thailand!)

US President Hillary Clinton?

If Hillary Clinton becomes the next president of the United States, a two minute video clip will go along way to explaining how she won over the American People. It was a transformational moment.

To me, it was not the delivery -- the teary eyes -- that moved me, nor her sincerity, but the merit of her message. I sensed Hillary Clinton was passionate about something larger than herself. This is how I would paraphrase her concern:

Americans are in a fight for the soul of this country against right-wing extremists. I'm worried not so much that my campaign is about to collapse, but that if Barack Obama should win our party's nomination, the country will find itself with a president who is simply not prepared for the fight ahead.*

One thing I'll say for Hillary: she knows a thing or two about what it takes to confront the party of President Bush -- the gang she once referred to as "the vast right wing conspiracy." Hillary understands precisely who she is up against. She harbors no illusions about them. She knows many of them personally. She knows their games. Moreover, her chief ally is the best politician in the country, the best US president in recent memory.

On the other hand, with respect to Barack Obama, there is so much the young man still has to learn. He can't possibly know the ropes the way Hillary Clinton (or John Edwards) does.



Video: TPM
* Also see this video.

Burma Smile

Photo by Jotman.

Fox News Award

This week the Fox News Award* goes to NBC (which is owned by General Electric). Daily Kos reports that NBC "provided perhaps the most shocking example of the corporate media blackout of John Edwards.** They gave him just four seconds out of nearly nine minutes of political coverage Friday." As you might recall, John Edwards came second in Friday's vote in Iowa.
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*Jotman's Fox News Award goes to a media organization that has gone the extra mile during the course of the week to make the public more stupid (thereby undermining Jotman's ethic of creativity and global citizenship). Not only does Fox News instill narrow-mindedness in its US viewers, its overseas broadcasts undermine the ethic of global citizenship abroad by promoting anti-Americanism.
**Of the leading candidates for the US presidency, John Edwards is the only one who has been speaking out against the giant media conglomerates.

Do Thai police murder to 'save face'?

John Leo Del Pinto, a 25 year old Canadian man, was shot dead while his friend Carly Reisig received a bullet wound in the chest. The shootings occurred Sunday in Pai, a backpacker resort in northern Thailand.

"The version of events issued by police in Pai is at total variance with Miss Reisig's story" writes Andrew Drummond in The Nation (via Fonzi). Referring to a similar killing in Kanchanaburi of two tourists in their twenties (Vanessa Arscott and her boyfriend Adam Lloyd) Drummond concludes: "Like the Kanchanaburi case, the killing in the idyllic tourist village of Pai has the semblance of another police "loss of face" execution." More at Jotazine.

Obamamania

Imagine having an American president with roots in three continents, including Asia and Africa. Someone who is an outstanding speaker, and highly educated. Barack Obama lived in Indonesia from the age of six to ten, and his father is from Kenya. He graduated from Harvard Law School.

Despite these strong positives, I have yet to catch "Obamamania."

Instead, I am still rooting for John Edwards. Edwards strikes me as the guy who really means it when he says he's not going to let corporations dictate his priorities as president. He names the culprits: drug companies, media conglomerates, the military industrial complex. How sensible. In the debate the other night he put "elimination of nuclear weapons" as his objective. How sane.

On the personal side, I believe Edwards when he says the loss of his son motivated him to do something meaningful with his life. A former trial lawyer, Edwards does not seem to give a hoot if some very powerful people despise him. He does not need to be liked.

Whereas Edwards spells out what he's for and who he is against, the other candidates seem to talk in platitudes. To me, the height of banality is Barack Obama's slogan: "I'm a uniter not a divider." This line irritates me. I think America's biggest problems boil down to corporate excess, not disunity. Does it matter whether the American People are "united," so long as justice and liberty are defended? I think not. And I think that you arrive at the first by way of the second. And I believe unity built around adoration of a superstar -- the only tangible promise of Obamamania -- is likely to prove a fickle thing.

While there's plenty to admire about Barack Obama, I think John Edwards is making the better case as to why he should be president.

Burma Smile

This photo shows a friendly blacksmith I met in Burma.

A New Year's Resolution inspired by Burma's monks

Some of the most inspiring scenes of 2007 show a red sea of people filling the streets of Burma's major cities; peaceful holy men taking on a brutal military regime. But if such visuals were awe inspiring, the sounds coming from the streets were unbelievable.

The march had a soundtrack. It's a point that comes up at least once in each of the Jotman interviews. The interviewee describes an episode during the protests, and says:

". . . then we chanted the Metta Sutta."

Maung, Burmese activist, had this to say about it:

Someone ordered the soldiers to shoot the "fake monks." How did these people (protesting monks) become the fake monks? To think these fake monks recited the Meta Sutta! That’s absurd. It’s in Pali, and only the real monks know Pali.

But what of the significance of the Metta Sutta? That's not the only sutra a monk knows by heart. They could have chanted the words of any of a hundred ancient Pali texts they would have memorized.

Literally, metta means "unconditional loving kindness." The monks swarming the streets of Mandalay or Rangoon, chanting the metta sutta, reminded everyone around them that the protest was far more than an act defiance; it presented an opportunity for monks -- and townsfolk who joined them in protest -- to put the ethic of loving kindness into practice. To a large extent this was implicit in the fact that the street protests were a "selfless" activity directed towards improving the welfare of others; but the chanting of the metta sutta encouraged everyone to fill their hearts and minds with positivity and to project love -- even towards soldiers and police.

Ghandi exemplified this ideal in India half a century ago. The chanting of the metta sutta in 2007 was a distinctly Burmese manifestation of non-violent resistance.

Here is a very lovely musical rendition of the metta sutta with English subtitles.* Teachers in the Burmese tradition have discussed the practice of metta (here, here). Finally, for those interested in a new way to put metta into practice in 2008, check out this meditation course.
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* Hat-tip Jeg, who has a collection of "Burmese inspirationals." Jeg has also posted a translation of the Metta Sutta.
Photo: by Jotman.

Can Barack Obama save Kenya?

By winning the Iowa Primary this week, US Senator Barack Obama surmounted the first hurdle toward becoming his party's nominee in the 2008 US presidential election. But Americans may not be the only people turning to Obama in the coming days. Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times views US presidential contender Barack Obama as a potentially influential figure in Kenya, during this bleak hour in that nation's history. Referring to Obama's visit to Kenya, Sweet wrote:

The Kenya leg of Obama's four-nation trip to Africa was the highlight because it was seen as a homecoming for the Illinois senator, whose father was Kenyan. Obama got his first taste of being treated by a nation as a hero. The upbeat press he got in the United States from the trip helped set the stage for his presidential bid.

Like the Chinese ideogram for "crisis," the situation in Kenya presents both "opportunity" and "danger" for the Obama candidacy. His critics claim Obama has a tendency to duck controversy (For example, the senator has reputation for avoiding controversial votes). Lynn Sweet continues:

I understand Obama has to be careful because while he is one of the most credible figures the United States has to deal with Kenya, the dispute between Odinga and Kibaki is mired in tribal politics. Obama, very aware that Kenyans may see him as a Luo* in this context, does not want to be seen as taking sides.

But Obama's claim of uniqueness is being offered as a reason he should be president. The Voice of America statement is a good first step. What's next? Obama can't vote present on Kenya.**

The senator from Illinois may be called upon rise to the challenge of Kenya. If the situation there continues to deteriorate, it may well prove the defining crisis of his candidacy.
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* This ABC news commentary describes Obama's family connections with Kenya: "His father was an educated member of the Luo tribe, who much of the Luo elite -- like Odinga, the president's challenger -- actually knew. Obama told ABC News that his father also knew President Kibaki personally."
** "Obama can't vote present. . ." -- what does this mean? This NY Times article explores critics' (unfounded?) allegations that as Illinois state legislator, Obama ducked votes on contentious issues.
More:
- Obama's recent statement on VOA.
- Someone claiming to be Obama's "cousin" in Kenya was a candidate in the recent election (more here).
- BBC reports on the reaction in Kenya to Obama's victory in Iowa.
- Obama's Wiki biography.

Burma Smile

Another photo of the little guy who gave us our first Burma Smile of the New Year.

Kenya Crisis: bloggers, regional implications

Kenya is the Thailand of East Africa, and Nairobi its Bangkok. It's generally regarded as stable secure place; a base for businesses and organizations serving the region. Is this sanctuary about to explode?

The implications of further unrest in Kenya could be staggering. Reuters reports: "Political violence in Kenya is choking off supplies of fuel and petroleum products to neighbouring Uganda and is likely to hit a swathe of central Africa from Rwanda and Burundi to eastern Congo and southern Sudan." Daniel Lipparelli blogging from Kenya, elaborated on the fuel issue on his blog Wednesday:

Last night I talked to a Ugandan friend living in Uganda. She told me that there is a transportation crisis in Uganda right now because there is no gas for the cars as it all comes from Kenya. I heard on the news that there is also no gas in Rwanda, Burundi and Sudan. The Kenya police are saying that if 10 or more trucks organize themselves for a convoy from the ports in Mombassa, they police will give them armed escorts.

Lipparelli says the Internet is unpredictable, and mobile phone credits in short supply in his town. On the horrific violence of the past 48 hours, he wrote:

Even though things are peaceful in our little corner of Kitale, just 40 miles away in the town of Eldoret things are still tense. Last night in Eldret a group of 200 angry young men went to a church where people were seeking refuge from the killing. The mob started beating people and then set the church on fire. Some people were able to escape, 40 plus died in the fire, 25 were children. Because of the lack of news in Kenya, we didn’t hear about this until family from the U.S. started calling to see if we knew about it. I then confirmed with friends in Eldort that it was true. It was on the news this morning. Some people are reporting 50 killed. Kenya Red Cross said it was closer to 150. The actual number is not yet clear

Lipparell believes news media reports are lagging behind events: "It is now being reported that the total number of people who have been killed in the past 4 days is 250. I personally think these statistics are two days behind. There is no way by the reports we are getting from friends around the country that it is this low." But on the other hand, Lipparelli thinks its premature talk about genocide: "At this point, this is being blown out of proportion and I believe that the media is making it sound like the whole country in on fire. The reality is that only three major cities are in chaos, but the rest of the country, today, is peaceful."

I've been trying to hunt down some other good blogs on the Kenya situation. Global Voices has lots of Kenya blog updates on this page. Kenya Pundit is outstanding (via Blattman). This South African commentary says the conflict is not simply a tribal war as it portrayed in the Western media but "in reality a confluence of divisions – regional, ethnic, rural/urban, and of course above all political." Al Jazeera has some good reports. And finally, a report in the FT is sobering. The West, writes Michael Holman:

did not believe it was ultimately in their interests to have a showdown with the barons of corruption. They did not want to upset what they saw as a regional “island of stability” from which the UN and other international relief agencies, including hundreds of foreign non-governmental organisations, operate – a thriving business that accounts for a fifth of Kenya’s annual foreign exchange earnings.

Weighing in the balance are the longstanding military agreements Kenya has signed with the US and the UK, which have assumed particular importance since President George W. Bush launched his war on terrorism.

Thai Princess Galyani Vadhana, 1923 – 2008

The sister of the King of Thailand has died. HM Princess Galyani Vadhana is of the eldest sister of HM King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX). The Thai prime minister has decreed that the nation shall begin 100 days of mourning for the revered princess, and that for 15 days all government officials and agencies will wear black and flags will fly at half mast.

The princess had been in and out of the hospital since June 2007 and was diagnosed with cancer. She passed away at 2.54 am Wednesday at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok.

Among her many philanthropic activities, HM Princess Galyani was a celebrated patron of the performing arts, especially music.

Political parties in Thailand had been negotiating to form a new government. The Bangkok Post reports that on account of the death of the princess, the Chart Thai and Puea Pandin parties have postponed their announcement on joining a coalition government led by People Power party. It is unclear how many seats the coalition will be able to muster as the Election Commission -- presumably pressured by the powerful Privy Council president -- has been issuing "red cards" which can disqualify a candidate from holding office on the grounds of alleged -- but possibly spurious -- electoral irregularities. Bangkok Pundit (here and here) has the latest on the implications of the "red cards."

Other sources: Nation (biography), Wikipedia, AP,

Ashin Kovida on 2 days that shook the world in 2007

This is Part II (here is Part I) of my exclusive interview with Ashin Kovida, Chairperson of the Monks Representative Group. I spoke with this prominent leader of the September 2007 mass protests at a safe house near the Thai-Burma border.

JOTMAN: Where were you the night of the 25th?

KOVIDA: On the night of the 25th of September raids on the monasteries occurred in Rangoon. The next day there were blood stains in the monasteries. They beat up monks. They arrested monks. They left blood stains on the floors.

My monastery had only a few monks. They raided mainly the big monasteries.

JOTMAN: What happened on the 26th? (Note: here is my summary of news reports out of Burma on 09/26, and for further context here is my September timeline ).

KOVIDA: On the 26th the security was very tight. I was at She Shwedagon -- around a kind of bonze Buddha in front of Swadagon. At the times the main roads in Rangoon inside the city were blocked by the security.

JOTMAN: And the protest continued?

KOVIDA: The people couldn't go close to the Shwedagon Pagoda. But fortunately about 300 monks and townsfolk reached it, taking sneaky routes to get there. And as soon as they arrived in the compound, the security immediately came out and pushed them away, telling them to "move, move, move," forcing them down the streets. . .

So they were blocked, and they couldn't go anywhere, so what they had to do was . . .

It was very hot at the time, under the sun. I was negotiating with the police officers there. Meanwhile, the monks started reciting the metta sutta (sutra of loving kindness). During the negotiations, the police kept saying you can't be here. No more than 5 people they said, referring to the curfew. Now they said, "we will prepare the car. we will bring you back to your monasteries." But we don't trust them. Because on the 25th they had raided the monasteries and beaten up the monks. And if we accepted their offer of transport, we had no idea where they would take us.

So after about an hour of negotiations the security forces started arresting -- I mean pulling students out from the group. And I was shouting, "Hey, don't touch the people! You cannot do this!" They were hesitant.

That was when one young novice monk started moving and running so the other people -- you know all the people were under the pressure of a difficult situation -- and so this one person breaks away. I mean he explodes. He's off running as fast as he can. And others break away too, they are racing.

We all ran. We ran hard until we came to a wall. Soon a lot of people are trying to climb the wall. As they are trying to get over it, the security forces are pulling at their legs. They pull some down. Girls and some nuns are pulled down by their sarongs. These they tear off. They beat people on their heads. Brutally.

Only about 70 people were able to escape, including myself; only those of us who could climb the wall to reach the other side. Although I made it there I got hit by a policeman's rubber baton.

JOTMAN: What happened next?

KOVIDA: It so happened that after we crossed the wall, on the other side was a monastery. And we found people gathering there to go to Shwedagon Pagoda. This group of people had gotten very angry because the military had begun beating the monks. So they started throwing stones and bricks at the riot police and soldiers. I think the riot police shot a tear-gas bomb into the crowd. So the situation was worsening before our eyes.

At this point I tried to request to the people not to do violence. Although, of course, the troops had started the violence. So I am trying to explain to the people that we are doing a peaceful demonstration and we want it to end up in a peaceful way.

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Photos: Jotman, map of Rangoon is from the BBC.